Hi all,
There is an interesting handicap chase at Carlisle this afternoon that I am looking at today. The ground at Carlisle has eased from good to good to soft and more rain was forecast.
Carlisle
3:35 – Last year’s winner Court Dreaming won this off a 124 day layoff and the 10-year-old returns from 124 day break once more. He is off the same mark as last year and given his record in the race, also runner-up in 2021, this will have been the target.
Mexico improved for the step up to 3m over hurdles last season. Chase debut for the 7-year-old here and he looks on a workable mark. His best form over the smaller obstacles came on rain softened ground and he may need that sort of going to win.
Top weight Guetapan Collonges can have a big say if fit enough for his seasonal return. The 7-year-old won two of his four starts over fences last season, including on seasonal return. He finished 4th in both Warwick’s Classic Chase and the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on the other two starts. This represents a drop in class, and there is a nice handicap chase in him this winter.
Verdict: If this isn’t a likely prep for another day, I would really fancy Guetapan Collonges. This will be the day for last year’s winner Court Dreaming but he wouldn’t want the ground to ease too much more before post time. More rain will be welcomed by connections of chase debutant Mexico and the joint top weight can’t be ruled out if taking to the larger obstacles.
Mexico – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John