Hi all,
It’s been a dreadful start to the month but with Royal Ascot less than two weeks away things will turn around.
Things are starting to get tough but given the odds were playing losing runs like this are not unexpected.
Statistically we can expect losing runs of 50+ and the service has had losing runs of 52, 53 and 57 in the past 10 years.
I know it’s hard when your in the middle of a losing run like this but you have to keep your nerve and remember that profits and indeed losses have to be measured over the year not a a few days.
Like Wednesday the pick of today’s action is across the Irish Sea. There’s a seven race card at Leopardstown including two Listed races; the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Glencairn Stakes (6.30) and King George V Cup (7.30).
Hamilton and Chelmsford have a Class 2 handicap on their cards and both races are worth a second look.
Leopardstown
6:00 – Skippio Express Collection Handicap – 1m
Helpmeout gained two good ground C&D successes here last summer. The filly returned from a 9 month absence with an encouraging 1½ lengths 4th of 20 at the Curragh 13 days ago. Up 2lb but set for a big run from a decent low draw.
Dagoda remains a maiden after twenty starts which must be a concern. However, you couldn’t really fault her fast finishing neck 2nd of 25 at Cork 22 days ago. Up 3lb for her latest effort but if she’s in the same form won’t be far away with Colin Keane booked.
Top weight Chavajod made a winning stable debut over C&D 20 days ago. The handicapper has reacted with an 11lb rise in the weights but given his current form can’t be ruled out.
Plunkett last win came here over a furlong shorter last June and three down the field efforts this season mean the 6-year-old is now 2lb below his last wining mark. Can’t be dismissed if returning to form.
Jaafel a three time winner on the all-weather but has yet to win after 14 starts on turf. The 5-year-old was close to his best all-weather form when a ¾ length 3rd of 20 at the Curragh 13 days ago ( Helpmeout (4th). Up 3lb and in the mix once more.
6:30 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Glencairn Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 1f
Moon De Vega a useful performer for Ralph Beckett. The filly made a winning debut for Paddy Twomey in a minor race at Gowran Park 16 days ago. Back into pattern company here but should go well.
Kerkiyra was a solid 2 length 3rd of 10 to Insinuendo in the Group 3 Park Express Stakes at the Curragh 75 days ago. Has definite claims if reproducing that form here.
Salt Lake City, trained by Aidan O’Brien, hasn’t been seen since finishing a 9 ¼ length 5th of 8 to stablemate Auguste Rodin in Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. Made all to win a Navan maiden last October. He made all that day and given the lack of pace here Ryan Moore seems likely to make the pace. Capable of going close on belated seasonal return.
7:00 – Plusvital Speed Gene Handicap – 1m 1f
Coeur D’or produced a career best on RPR’s when a ½-length 2nd of 20 at the Curragh 13 days ago. The return to a sound surface suited the 7-year -old that day and today’s slightly longer trip looks a positive.
Coill Na Sionainne isn’t the easiest to win with (2-32). However, two of her best performance came over C&D last June including when a ½ length 2nd of 12 in last year’s race, from 2lb higher. Below her best so far this season but handicapped to be competitive.
Independent Expert was back to her best when a ¾-length 3rd of 13 at Naas (1m) 18 days ago. The filly was doing her best work last time and today’s extra furlong could suit. Only 1lb higher and shouldn’t be far away.
7:30 – King George V Cup (Listed Race) – 1m 4f
Just the five runners but an intriguing contest. New Variant made it 2-3 this season when winning at Naas last month. The return to 1m 4f will suit the gelding and given the ease of his Naas success looks worth his place in pattern company.
Tower Of London a good ground winner here on his juvenile debut last season. The better was expected from the colt on his seasonal return when a 7 ½ length 6th of 8 to Sprewell in the Derby Trial (1m 2f) here last month. Today’s better ground should suit and could what he’s capable of today.
Amusement seemed suit by the step up to 1m 4f when winning a handicap on her seasonal reappearance over C&D last month. Has a bit to find Official Rating’s with New Variant & Tower Of London but not ruled out.
The line-up is completed by a couple of Joseph O’Brien once raced fillies in Thunder Roll & Shamwari. Both fillies are up in trip for their second career starts and capable of better with racing. Thunder Roll has an Irish Oaks entry which might indicate she’s the better of the pair.
Chelmsford
8:20 – Weatherbys Digital Solutions Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
A competitive Class 2 handicap. White Wolf’s two career wins have come on the synthetics (tapeta) and he wasn’t disgraced when a 5 length 10th of 15 at York 22 days ago. He was slowly away that day and wasn’t given a hard time when his chance was gone. Respected back on the all-weather and for a yard 4-11 in the past 14 days.
Sun King has just had three starts since joining the George Boughey yard. The 4-year-old was an eyecatching 6 ½ length 5th of 19 at Newbury 20 days ago. The suspicion is that we haven’t seen the best from him yet and the addition of the first time cheekpieces can enable him to go close.
Howth hasn’t been in form on either start on turf this season so it hard to gauge where he is ability wise. However, the last time he was on the all-weather on his final start of 2022 he was an excellent ½ length 2nd of 10 in a similar race over C&D. Now 3lb lower a reproduction of that performance would see him bang there.
Betting Advice:
Leopardstown
6:00 – Jaafel – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
7:00 – Independent Expert – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Coill Na Sionainne – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Chelmsford
8:20 – Sun King – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral and Howth – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Bet365.
I’m not sure if there will be any selections tomorrow but I will be back on Saturday.
Cheers
John