Hi all,
It’s the start of what is going to be an extremely busy ten days or so for the service. I’m anticipating selections for each day between now and a week on Sunday. So its time to buckle for some rollercoaster action.
The Racing League gets under way in the evening at Yarmouth. It’s not a concept that I like despite the fact there’s some competitive action on offer. I won’t be having a bet on the card, but its possible I may tune into ITV4 to watch it.
The best of the real stuff is across the Irish Sea at Leopardstown today. The highlights of an eight race card are the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes (5:12) and Tyros Stakes (5:47). The Group 2 Minstrel Stakes which should have been run at the Curragh on Sunday has also been added to the card.
There’s Listed action at Sandown this afternoon with the Star Stakes (3:15) the feature race of a six race card.
I’ve had a look at all today’s pattern races, and you can read my thoughts below. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Sandown
3:15 – Soprano an impressive winner on racecourse debut at Newmarket improved again when finishing 2 length 3rd of 17 in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. The form of that race looks strong and the step up to 7f should suit the filly.
Shuwari overcame inexperience to win on her racecourse debut (7f) at Newbury last month. The daughter of New Bay is a useful prospect who is capable of better but may need further to win at this level.
Fallen Angel produced a good turn of foot inside the final furlong to win at Haydock 62 days ago. Another open to further progress. Could be the biggest rival to Soprano but that filly will be tough to beat given she’s thought of a future 1,000 Guineas horse.
Leopardstown
5:12 – Aidan O’Brien has won the Silver Flash five times in the last ten years. Aidan saddles likely long odds on favourite in Ylang Ylang. The daughter of Frankel cost 1,500,000gns as a yearling and she repaid a small amount of the purchase price when making all to win a Curragh maiden (7f) 27 days ago. She’s open to any amount of improvement and looks a potential Group 1 juvenile filly. Already one of the leading fancies for next season’s 1,000 Guineas and provided the ground doesn’t turn to testing she’ll be tough to beat.
Her biggest rival should be Mysteries, trained by Donnacha O’Brien. The daughter of No Nay Never built on the promise of her racecourse debut third behind the smart Matrika when winning a Cork maiden (6f) last month. The step up to 7f should bring out more improvement in her and she’s a worthy rival to the favourite. Whether she can beat Ylang Ylang I’m not so sure, but she can give her a race.
5:47 – Islandsinthestream impressed when winning on racecourse debut at the Curragh last month. There should be plenty more to come from the son of Wootton Bassett and I think he can beat the more experienced Mountain Bear.
6:22 – Romanised Minstrel Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
It’s good to see the Minstrel Stales which was due to be run last Sunday at the Curragh has been switched to this card. It looks a competitive renewal with 11 set to line-up.
The bookies seem to have priced up the front two in the market correctly.
Zarinsk had Tarawa 1 ¼ lengths back in second when winning a Group 3 here (1m) in May. The former has since bounced back from a below par run in France to win a Group 3 at Fairyhouse 15 days ago. She wasn’t originally among the race entries but the switch to Leopardstown where’s she won twice has clearly proved too tempting for connections. Tarawa has since gone onto finish a promising 3 length 4th to stablemate Tahiyra in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. However, she didn’t build on that effort when only 2nd of 9 in a Listed race at the Curragh 25 days ago.
Salt Lake City, Power Under Me, Honey Girl and Cosmic Vega can’t be discounted.
Salt Lake City might appreciate the forecast easier underfoot conditions than he faced at the Curragh last time. The same sentiments apply to both Honey Girl and Power Under Me.
Real Appeal provided the rain hasn’t made the ground to testing makes plenty of appeal. However, he looks like a better horse on a sound surface. A winner of Group 3 and Group here in 2021 for previous trainer Jessica Harrington. Now with Ado McGuinness the 6-year-old was back to form when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 6 in a Group 3 over C&D last time. Sean Foley 3 -7, 4 places on the gelding at Leopardstown is back in the saddle for the time since the switch of yards. Given his very best form has come here and at 12/1 & bigger he’s one to seriously consider if the ground isn’t too soft.
I’m tempted to take on Ylang Ylang with Mysteries in the Silver Flash Stakes but like the favourite who knows how she’ll take the likely soft ground.
Real Appeal would interest me in the feature race (Minstrel Stakes) but I don’t think he wants soft ground, so I’m minded to go with Salt Lake City who bids to get his career back on track.
Best of the rest: handicaps
Sandown
The ground changed at Sandown from good to soft during racing on Wednesday evening. I had an interest in Brave Knight (3:50) and Surrey Belle (4:55) on goodish ground but soft ground is an unknown for both 3-year-olds. I’m not saying they can’t win but at the prices I’m happy to leave them alone.
Leopardstown
The best handicap at Leopardstown is the Dublin To Bahrain Handicap (7:22). This 1m 1f contest sees seven 3-year-olds line up for a winner’s prize of €12,980.
Carracci trained by Aidan O’Brien looks the right favourite. The colt produced a career best when a length 2nd of 14 over C&D (good) 14 days ago. That performance, which came in a Premier Handicap, is the standout bit of form in this line up and from the same mark he should go close.
Pandora Lovegood improved for getting soft/heavy ground last summer, but we haven’t seen the filly since she disappointed in a Group 3 at the Curragh 305 days ago. If he’s ready to roll on her belated seasonal reappearance and gets genuinely soft ground, she would have a chance.
Fort Vega improved to win a Gowran maiden and Naas handicap in May. Badly drawn and not well positioned when a disappointing 21st of 29 in the Britannia Handicap (14/1) on his hat trick bid. Better expected back on an easy surface. Yard has gone 23 runners and 42 days without a winner but he looks the biggest rival to the favorite.
Betting Advice:
The change in going at Sandown means I’m switching my focus to Leopardstown for today’s selections.
Leopardstown
5:12 – Mysteries – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
6:22 – Salt Lake City – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
7:22 – Fort Vega – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John