Hi all,
A good day at the office with Midnight Shadow and Strictlyadancer ensuring a healthy profit. Hopefully we can end Cheltenham’s November meeting on high today.
The Cheltenham November meeting comes to a conclusion, highlighted by the Grade 2 Shloer Chase (2.20) which will feature Put The Kettle On who won last year’s race and subsequently went on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the festival. The unseasonably dry ground means depressingly small fields at Cheltenham. The Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (2:55) apart, which has attracted a maximum field of 20, the rest of the card contains just 27 runners.
The second day of Punchestown’s winter festival features the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle (2.05) and the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novice Chase (12:30). There’s also decent looking jumps card at Fontwell with the highlight of a seven-race card being the Southern National Handicap Chase (3:10).
The ITV cameras are covering seven races live, on what looks a good afternoon of sport, four from Cheltenham, two from Fontwell and the Morgiana Hurdle from Punchestown. The latter race has attracted just five runners with the Willie Mullins trained mare Echoes In Rain puting her Champion Hurdles credentials on the line. Her four rivals include stablemate Sharjah, who won this in 2018 and also won first time up last season, and Abacadabras successful in last year’s renewal.
Cheltenham
2:20 – Shloer Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m
Just the four for this year’s renewal. However, the four are Put The Kettle On, Nube Negra, Politologue and Rouge Vif.
There was just ½ length between Put The Kettle On and Nube Negra in last season’s Champion Chase. On today’s ground you can see the latter is fancied to reverse placing with Put The Kettle On. Politologue is returning from a wind operation but he has gone well fresh in the past and goes well around Cheltenham. His stablemate Rouge Vif is having his first run for the Paul Nicholls yard since a stable switch. He’s the outsider of the four but gets a handy 6lb from his rivals which puts him with a chance and ticks the boxes marked going, track and distance.
Verdict: You can never rule out Put The Kettle On around here but on today’s ground Nube Negra can reverse Champion Chase placings with the mare. However, at the prices I’m taking both on with the Paul Nicholls pair Politologue & Rouge Vif.
1pt win – Politologue – 4/1 – Gen
0.5pts win – Rouge Vif – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:55 – Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f
Ordinary Joe trained by Nicky Henderson has only had three starts over hurdles and beat three rivals in a Worcester novice hurdle on his last start in May. He’s open to plenty of improvement on his handicap debut and a mark of 133 could well underestimate him. That said I think given his relative inexperience he’s worth taking on especially of he goes off favourite.
There’s been plenty of support for West Cork in the ante post betting. He won two of his five starts over hurdles last season and should go well for a yard that can place a horse to success in handicap hurdles here.
Alan King saddle Tritonic. The 4-year-old so impressive when winning the Garde 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton in February. He hasn’t really built on that performance but will be all the better for his seasonal return here at the last meeting and a strongly run race should suit.
Advanced Virgo is very effective on good/good to soft ground. He bounced back to form when back to his best when a 7 ¾ length 5th of 18 on his last start over hurdles at the Listowel Festival and has since finished third on the flat. The 6-year-old’s unexposed over hurdles and a mark of 133 looks more than workable for a shrewd trainer. Daryl Jacob has been booked for the ride which suggests he will come over the race.
Jessie Evans has to be respected. The 5-year-old put in a career best when 2 ¼ lengths 4th of 20 to Saldier in Galway Hurdle in July. He’s run well on the flat since and won a Navan maiden 25-days ago. His experience of a big field handicap hurdle will hold him in good stead here and he’s likely got a nice pot in him over hurdles.
Glory And Fortune had Cormier 6 ½ lengths back in 4th when winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month. He’s returned to action in great form winning both starts this autumn and although he’s up 8lb for his last win can’t be discounted. Cormier gets a 9lb pull in the weights here and I fancy he can finish in front this time. Trainer Brian Ellison saddled Nietzsche to win this in 2018.
Straw Fan Jack proved to be a useful novice hurdler last season and made a pleasing return to action when a head 2nd of 12 to Samba Dancer over C&D at the last meeting. It was a cracking effort given he was carrying top-weight of 11-12 that day Hes been nudged up 2lb for that effort and this a better race but he’s another with a decent handicap pot in him this season off his present mark. If the 6-year-old was with a more fashionable yard, he wouldn’t be the 25/1 that he is with Bet365 & Coral.
Galice Macalo put in some decent performances in novice company last season and the mare returned from a 7-month layoff with a 1 ¼ length 4th of 9 in handicap hurdle at Chepstow last month. She can race off the same mark here and should be sharper for her last run. Well suited to a sound surface if he settles, could be keen her races last season, she has each way claims.
Verdict: Sadly, the big prices available in midweek have gone with Tom Segal putting up as one of his Pricewise selections. Ordinary Joe could be anything but ordinary but given his relative experience he would have to be a Graded level hurdler to win this. Of those at the front end of the betting my preference is for Advanced Virgo. You can make solid cases for both Glory And Fortune and Cormier. Straw Fan Jack remains overpriced more down to hailing from a small yard than his actual chance.
1pt win – Advanced Virgo – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
0.5pts each way – Straw Fan Jack – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places)
0.5pts win – Cormier – 16/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John