Hi all,
Ejtilaab saved what was a tough Derby Day at Epsom yesterday. Today there’s an ultra-competitive looking 15 runner bet365 Sam Morshead Perth Gold Cup Handicap Chase (4:20).
Perth
4:20 – bet365 Sam Morshead Perth Gold Cup Handicap Chase – 3m
Assuming the ground is good as being described there are four, I like:
Mellow Ben has been well fancied on several occasions this year and last time out saw a change tactics on the 8-year-old who was held up when 2nd of 7 at Kempton 34-days ago. He’s on a winnable mark and is well suited to a sound surface.
Landofsmiles won over C&D two starts back and showed he remains in good form when 2nd of 9 at Ffos Las 27-days ago. Up 7lb since his last win demands a bit more from the 8-year-old but the yard saddled the winner of this in 2012 & 2018 and is 4-14 29% with its runners in the past 14-days.
The Butcher Said won two of his first three starts over fences, all on good ground, last year. He didn’t really kick on in handicap company but last time he took a step back in the direction when 3rd of 13 in a valuable handicap chase at Ayr. Jumping could be better but he was strong at the line at Ayr and won’t be far away here if the jockey doesn’t over do the exaggerated waiting tactics.
Trainer Tom George who saddled the winner of this in 2015 and is 5-13 38% in the past two weeks. He relies on Forget To Ask here. The 9-year-old is 2-2 since returning from a 4-month break and jumped very well when winning at Market Rasen last month. Up 8lb for that success and in a better race but he won with plenty in hand that day. He goes well on good ground and is at the right end of the handicap.
Verdict: Its tough to leave out two but at the prices I’m going with Mellow Ben & Forget To Ask.
1pt win – Mellow Ben – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Forget To Ask – 10/1 @ Bet365
There are two others I like at Listowel & Kilbeggan
Listowel
2:10 – Tall Story shaped well on his handicap debut when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 12 at Roscommon 6-days ago. Doing his best work late on he’s on a winnable mark here provided this race doesn’t come to quick for the lightly raced 3-year-old. Trainer has his horses in winning form and has a good record at Listowel.
1pt win – Tall Story – 9/2 @ Bet365
Kilbeggan
4:45 – Eimear won over C&D, off 10lb lower, last July. Was pulled up when favourite when last seen in action back in November. That race was on soft/heavy ground over hurdles so that performance is probably best forgiven. Back over fences for the first time since here win here. The return to a sounder surface will suit the mare and Rachel Blackmore is an interesting jockey booking. Trainer Matthew Smith is 5-23 22% +37.50 with his runners at the track in the past five years.
1pt win – Eimear – 11/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John