Hi all,
It was close but not close enough on Saturday. Not surprisingly the quality of the racing is down after ‘Super Saturday”. The race of the day is the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Deauville (2:50). Rather bizarrely given were in the middle of summer there is no flat racing in Britain this afternoon.
Deauville
2:50 – Prix Jean Prat (Group 1) -7f
A competitive renewal of the race. Lusail not disgraced when 6th of 15 behind Coroebus in the 2,000 Guineas got within a head of the 2,000 Guineas winner when second in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Granted he had the run of the race out in front that day but at least the drop back to 7f shouldn’t inconvenience him and the drying ground suits
Tenebrism looked a non-stayer when only 8th of 13 in the 1,000 Guineas. However, she didn’t seem to be stopping at the end of a mile when a 5-length 4th of 12 to Inspiral in the Coronation Stakes last time. A speedy juvenile (won the Cheveley Park Stakes) should be suited by 7f and quick ground.
Modern Games won the French 2,000 Guineas but probably didn’t stay an extended 1n 2f in the French Derby last time. The colt takes a big drop in trip here though.
Mangoustine didn’t run to her best when only 9th of 12 in the Coronation Stakes last time but she’s respected on her French 1,000 Guineas win. The drop back in trip shouldn’t be an issue but quick ground could be.
Unlike the four mentioned who have Group 1 form and stay further than 7f. Rozgar steps up in class here. The colt has been steadily progressive winning his last three starts, including a Listed race at Chantilly (soft) last month. His last two successes have come over 6f, but he did win a small race over C&D in April on heavy ground. First run on ground better than good to soft ask a new question of him but he’s by Exceed And Excel so there’s a chance he could be fine on quicker ground.
Verdict: Lusail and Tenebrism have a similar chance on ratings and that’s reflected in their price. The former is more likely to give his running although the filly is less exposed. Despite the quick ground being an unknown I want to keep the improving Rozgar onside.
1pt win – Rozgar – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Lusail – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Fairyhouse
The racing at Fairyhouse is moderate although there is the Group 3 Brownstown Stakes (4:15). I have a couple of tentative selections from the Irish venue but not in the feature race.
3:05 – Cleveleys has been shaping well enough on his last four starts to think he can win a handicap off his present mark. The 4-year-old did well to get as close as he did, after a slow start and from wide draw, when finishing a 1 ¾ length 7th of 14 at Roscommon 12-days ago. Capable of going close with more luck in the run today.
1pt win – Cleveleys – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – Amirat Alward looked a filly worth keeping onside when making all to win Listowel two starts back. Couldn’t get to the front and struggled when upped into Listed company at Carlisle last time. Better expected from the 3-year-old today and she has a good draw in stall 1 to adopt the front running tactics that suited her at Listowel.
1pt win – Amirat Alward – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John