Hi all,
After two good days at Aintree, Saturday was disappointing with only Any Second Now in the Grand National giving us much to shout about. Jumping the last I thought he was going to give me another National winner but it wasn’t to be as he came up against a well handicapped winner Noble Yeats who outstayed the selection on the run in.
It looks like it will be a busy week for the service next week with Newmarket’s three-day Craven Meeting starting on Tuesday. There won’t be any selections on Monday but I have a couple at the Curragh this afternoon.
Curragh
3:40 – Hollywoodbets Gladness Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Markaz Paname has improved from two to three and was a good winner of the valuable Madrid Handicap over today’s distance at Naas 14-days ago. Taking on the older horses here but is open to more improvement and is the one to beat.
Thunder Moon, a smart juvenile, won the Group 1 National Stakes over C&D and finished third in the Dewhurst in 2020. He only ran to his smart 2-year-old form one last year when head second to Laws of Indices in Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Deauville last July.
Belle Image a 1 ¼ length4th of 14 in last year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas and a 1 ¾ length 5th of 14 to Mother Earth in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild last August could prove competitive again in pattern company this season. However, she needed her seasonal reappearance last year and trainer Sheila Lavery tells the Racing Post “I haven’t had a clear run with her. She’s not where I’d want her and is just ready to start back. She’ll improve for whatever she does here.”
Ace Aussie started last season in good form finishing runner-up to Poetic Flare on his seasonal return and a 1 ½ length 3rd of 8 in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Ran poorly on two subsequent starts. Has been gelded since his last start but may be better on ground better than yielding.
Current Option is well suited to 7f with all six of his career wins coming over the distance. Ran well for a long way when a 6 ¼ length 9th of 26 in the Irish Lincolnshire last time. The 6-year-old just found his stamina stretched that day and he did finish runner-up in today’s race last year.
Verdict: The improving Markaz Paname is the most likely winner but Current Option looks set for a big run in what doesn’t look the strongest of Group 3’s.
1pt win – Current Option – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:12 – Hollywoodbets Daily Boosts Handicap – 6f
Plenty in with a chance in this 23-runner sprint handicap which looks set be run at a very strong pace if the pace forecast proves correct.
Handicap debutant Carlton Banks won a Naas 6f maiden (heavy) on his final start last season. Just the three career starts and he’s open to further improvement as a 4-year-old.
Stag Night won a 15-runners maiden at Navan when last seen in action in July. Another making his handicap debut today and could be capable of better this season. However, he does have a long absence to overcome and may need this.
Mickey The Steel was beaten a neck by Carlton Banks at Naas last October and seems to have returned to action in good form after his ½ length 2nd of 11 back at Naas 14-days ago. Remains a maiden after 16 starts but still looks capable of popping up in sprint handicap this season.
Moss Tucker ended last season with a 5f Tipperary handicap win last October. He had been running over much further last season but drop back to 5f on testing ground seemed to suit that day, he also went close over 6f on quick ground last season. Starts the new season 8lb higher but he’s unexposed over sprint distances and is respected.
Blairmayne twice a winner over C&D in 2019 is suited to these big field handicaps with three of his six career wins have come in field sizes 16+. This is the 9-year-old’s first start for 175-days but he’s gone well fresh in the past and his form figures when returning from a 121+day layoff are 691532. Maybe a bit high in the eights now but has each way claims.
Most of Breaking Story’s best form for his previous trainer Shelia Lavery came over 7f & 1m. Has stepped up with each start since joining new trainer Richard O’Brien. Dropped back to 6f for the first time since his juvenile season shaping with plenty of encouragement when a 1 length 3rd of 11 to Lord Dudley at Naas two weeks ago, half a length behind Mickey The Steel. A 1-22 career record isn’t great, sole success came on his racecourse debut here over 7f, but the 6-year-old is now a well-treated horse.
Verdict: Maiden winners Carlton Banks & Stag Night are interesting on their seasonal reappearances/handicap debuts. Moss Tucker ended last season with personal best and although he’s 8lb higher could do better as 4-year-old. Blairmayne goes well over C&D and has a good record fresh. The well handicapped and ground versatile Breaking Story is unexposed over sprint trips and Declan MacDonagh takes over in the saddle today.
1pt win – Breaking Story – 12/1 @ Bet365 or 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes. 0.5pts win – Blairmayne – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 0.5pts win – Carlton Banks – 12/1 @ Bet365.
Cheers
John