Hi all,
Plenty of good performances from yesterday’s selections and Haafapiece’s success at Wetherby ensured it was a winning day for the service.
The Listed Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (2.00), won by Imperial Aura last year, is the highlight of the day at Carlisle. There are also jumps meetings at Huntingdon and Lingfield.
Across the Irish Sea Ireland, there is also jumping at Cork with the highlight of a seven-race card being Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (3:00). The Irish flat season comes to an end at Naas. It’s a competitive looking card with some big fields. The feature race of an eight-race card being the Birdcatcher Premier Nursery Handicap (1:00) and the November Handicap (3:45) which has €80,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Let’s begin at Naas which does face a precautionary early morning inspection due to forecast heavy rain overnight. At the time of writing on Saturday evening the going is being described as heavy. I hope Naas does race as that where most of today’s selections are from.
Naas
1:00 – Tally-Ho Stud Irish EBF Birdcatcher Premier Nursery Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 6f
Eastern Wind put in a career best when winning a 6 ½ f maiden at Limerick 22-days ago. The filly really enjoyed the heavy ground last time so won’t have any issues with today’s testing ground. Nursery debut off what looks a fair mark of 78 with Siobhan Rutledge taking off a useful 5lb.
Rhythm Of Zain has won both his starts this month at Navan (soft) and Dundalk 8-days ago. A nursery winner here over 5f in September. Going the right way and if he stays 6f on this ground he won’t be far away.
1:35 – Verhoyen has been unlucky with the draw on his last two starts at York and here over 6f last time. The 6-year-old is better judged on his 5 ½ f win at the Curragh (soft to heavy) in May off 8lb higher. Annalise Cullen takes off a useful 7lb off the 6-year-old back and he should make a bold bid from the front.
Improving returned from a four month lay off to run better than his 5¼ lengths 8th of 13 at Limerick (7f) last time suggests. He goes well in the mud and although he drops to 5f for the first time in his career he could get into the money at big odds.
4:15 – Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 2m
The last four renewals of the November Handicap have been over 1m 6f and the race returns to 2m for the first time since 2012.
The last two winners of the De Name Escapes Me (2020) and Jukebox Jury (2019) are set to run again. The first named can race off the same mark as 12 months ago and is better than he was able to show at Leopardstown last month. Jukebox Jury is well handicapped on his win in this race in 2019 but has struggled on both starts on the flat this season although he will like today’s likely heavy going.
Arcadian Sunrise won a 2m handicap at York’s Ebor Festival. The ground was quick that day and softer ground would have been preferred. He’s up 7lb for that success but he’s lightly raced on the flat and looks capable of going in again.
Caltor to advantage of a lenient handicap mark when wining the valuable amateur riders handicap at the Galway Festival. Shaped well with race in mind when a 2½ lengths 3rd of 5 in minor event at Bellewstown last time. The first-time blinkers are applied and although the 4-year-old is 7lb higher than for his Galway success. Dylan Browne McMonagle takes off a handy 3lb and he’s set to go well if he handles the heavy ground.
The form of the Gordon Elliott yard means Duffle Coat has to be respected and he looks well treated on his handicap debut off a mark of 79, compared to a hurdle mark of 143.
Powerful Aggie bids for hat trick after wins at Killarney and in the October Handicap (1m 4f) at Leopardstown last time. Up 5lb for her last win and has stamina to prove for 2m on what is sure to be testing ground.
Willie Mullins has a couple of contenders in Maze Runner and Royal Illusion. Maze Runner finished a 1 ½ length 3rd of 30 in the Irish Cesarewitch last time. He stays 2m well, goes on the ground and should be there or thereabouts. Royal Illusion was one place and 3 ½ lengths behind her stablemate at the Curragh. That was a return to form by the mare who easily won the Irish Cesarewitch (soft) in 2019 and finished 1 ¼ length 3rd of 16 in this race last year, off 4lb higher.
Shanroe ran a cracker to finish best a 2¾ lengths 4th of 20 to Sonnyboyliston in Ebor Handicap (good) at York last time. He made his effort more down the centre of the track in the Ebor so his effort can be marked up slightly. Goes well on soft ground so no issues with the going and finished a 3 ¼ length 4th of 16 in this race last year on heavy ground when shaping like could improve for 2m on the flat. He can race off the same mark as in the Ebor and has only has six starts on the flat.
Verdict: Royal Illusion has place claims. Caltor is going the right way but I wonder if he wants ground as testing as this. Arcadian Sunrise looks a worthy favourite and has more to give on the flat. The same apples to Shanroe who looks over priced to this pundit.
3:15 – Finale Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 4f
Patrick Sarsfield is clear on official ratings and the class horse of the race but his stamina for 1m 4f must be proved especially on testing ground.
Azallya had no issues with 1m 4f and soft ground when quickening clear of her rivals to win a Cork maiden in August. That was just the filly’s fourth career start and she’s capable of more improvement.
Cork
The ground is soft at Cork for the Cork Grand National so stamina for the marathon trip of the big race is going to be essential especially if the track sees more rain overnight.
3:00 – Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4f
Dromore Lad caused a 40/1 shock when winning this race 12 months ago. The 9-year-old hasn’t come near to that form on his subsequent starts which means he’s now 3lb below last years’ winning mark. Risks attached given his recent form but too well handicapped to ignore.
Gordon Elliott has his runners in great form so Braeside must be respected here. The 7-year-old is 0-6 since going over fences but shapes like he can win a handicap off around his present mark. Best form has come on soft and heavy ground so no problem with the ground but 3m 4f could test his stamina on his first start since February.
Russian Diamond got off the mark at the sixth attempt over fences when making all to win a Fairyhouse beginners chase 22-days ago. Must carry top-weight of 11-10 on his handicap chase debut. He’s a big horse though so the weight shouldn’t be an issue and he’s going the right way but 3m 4f asks another question of him.
Mister Fogpatches has improved for the step to marathon trips finishing 3rd of 22 in the Scottish Grand National before going onto win a 3m 7f handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Returned from a 5-month absence to finish a 2½ lengths 4th of 13 at Listowel over an inadequate 2m 6f last time. Should be spot on for this.
Screaming Colours is a thorough stayer as he showed when 5-length 4th of 20 in the Midlands Grand National in March. He tends to do things at his own speed which means he can find himself well back in his races. First start for 225-days but he did win first time up last season and can be competitive.
Glorious Galway can make a bad mistake in his races as he did when last seen in action at Wexford in May. The 9-year-old finished runner-up in this race in 2019 and his two best RPR’s have come on heavy ground so he should relish today’s underfoot conditions and can’t be discounted.
Eleazar Des Neiges bounced back to from on his return from a six-month absence when ¾-length 2nd of 4 at Galway 26-days ago. The 7-year-old is 0 from 7 over fences but doesn’t look on a bad mark on the best of last season’s novice chase form. Shane Fitzgerald taking off a useful 5lb and he goes well on soft/heavy ground but there must be stamina doubts for today’s 3m 4f trip.
Verdict: A grueling stamina test will suit Screaning Colours and Glorious Galway. Mister Fogpatches must be in the mix after a promising return to action at Listowel last time. Russian Diamond will be hard to pass if he gets an uncontested lead here. Last year’s winner Dromore Lad has been well out of form of late but a return to this venue could see him bounce back form and if he does, he’s well handicapped.
Carlisle
2:00 – Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 4f
Last year’s race was won by the Kim Bailey trained Imperial Aura and the trainer saddles race favourite Espoir De Romay. The 7-year-old won two of his four starts over fences and was in the process of putting up a career best when falling, in the lead at the time in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree. Looks the type to better on his second season over fences.
Ahoy Senor took his form over hurdles to a new level when making all to win the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April by 7 lengths from Bravemansgame. Has the cope to make up into an even better chaser and it’s interesting that trainer Lucinda Russell opts to give the 6-year-old his chase debut in a race like this.
Silver Hallmark won a Grade novices chase (heavy) at Haydock when last seen in action in January. That success means he must give 6lb to Espoir De Romay and 12lb to Ahoy Senor. There should be more to come from him this season but it won’t be easy to give weight away.
Pay The Piper has race fitness on his side. A winner of three of his four starts over hurdles last season. The 6-year-old finished a 3 lengths 2nd of 6 to a race fit rival on his chase debut Perth last month. Only rival fell at the first when he won a novice chase at Wetherby last time. Won her over hurdles on heavy ground last season and can’t be ruled out.
Betting Advice:
Naas
1:00 – 0.5pts win – Rhythm Of Zain – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Eastern Wind – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:35 – 0.5pts win – Improving – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Verhoyen – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:15 – 1pt win – Azallya – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:15 – 1pt win – Arcadian Sunrise – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Shanroe – 12/1 @ Bet365
Cork
3:00 – 1pt win – Screaming Colours – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 0.5pts win – Glorious Galway – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Dromore Lad – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John