Hi all,
Not a bad day’s sport across Britain & Ireland on Sunday and I have selections from Limerick and Leopardstown.
The highlight is the JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National (3:40) at Limerick. It’s heavy ground at Limerick which means the day’s most valuable race, which has £53,097 on offer to the winner, has just got 13 runners.
There’s a competitive flat card at Leopardstown. The highlights of a seven race card are two Listed races: the Knockaire Stakes (2:10) and Trigo Stakes (3:20). Although the most valuable race is the October Premier Handicap (5:05) which has attracted a field of 19 runners for the 1m 4f contest.
This side of the Irish Sea there’s a competitive jumps card at Kempton where the feature race is a 2m Listed Hurdle (4:05). Up at Sedgefield highlight of a seven race card is the Durham National Handicap Chase (4:25).
Without further ado let’s move onto Sunday’s action starting at Limerick and the Munster National.
Limerick
3:40 – JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m
The forecast heavy ground has led to small field of just 13 runners mind you it could be worse as Gordon Elliott saddles 8 of 13 with Henry De Bromhead saddling two.
The two Elliott runners I like most are The Goffer and top -weight Coko Beach. Danny Gilligan takes off a handy 5lb off the latter on his seasonal return, but the 8-year-old was ultimately well beaten in last year’s race on his return to action. Given the quality of his jumping he had to be respected in races like this but today may not be the day to catch him.
The Goffer looks the most solid of the pair and may turn out to be the best of the Elliott runners. The 6-year-old ran like the run was needed when 8th of 22 in the Galway Plate on his return from a break. He duly stepped up on that run when a 9 ¾ length 5th of 17 in last month’s Kerry National at Listowel. Today’s stamina test should really suit, and he’s got a nice handicap chase pot in him off his present mark when all the cards fall right.
The other horse I like is the Henry De Bromhead trained Walk Away. The 10-year-old maybe a six race maiden over fences but he was sent off the 100/30 favourite for this race in 2020 before falling at the 10th. He’s clearly not been easy to keep sound as he’s only had two starts since with the latest coming in May after a 734 day absence. Whether he will be tough enough for an attritional race like this I’m not so sure, but I think today will most likely be the day to catch him. The bookies are taking no chances with him as they have him at single figure odds. He’s now a non-runner so where now down to just the 12 runners.
Munster National Verdict: Ante post favourite Frontal Assault, also trained by Gordon Elliott, must be respected with Jack Kennedy riding. Coko Beach jumping always gives him a chance in races like this. With Walk Away and non-runner that leaves The Goffer as my pick.
Leopardstown
It’s going to be close to heavy ground at Leopardstown. I have had a quick look at five of the seven races.
2:10 – We haven’t seen Cairo since he finished a 2 length runner-up to Paddington in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. He’s the one to beat on that form if ready to roll after a 148-day layoff.
2:45 – Catena Zapata’s two career wins have come on the all-weather and he’s an eight race maiden on turf. The 5-year-old returned from a 11 month absence with promising enough ¾-length 2nd of 10 at Cork (soft) 26 days ago. If he can build on that effort on even more testing ground he looks on a handy enough mark with Wayne Hassett taking off a handy 7lb.
3:20 – Sprewell began the season in tremendous form winning at Naas and the Derby Trial over C&D in May. He was then a respectable 4th of 14 in the Epsom Derby. Hasn’t been at his best on his last two starts in the Irish Derby & Irish Champion Stakes. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for his Group 3 win but he’s down in class here and both his career wins have come on heavy ground.
3:55 – Not the best quality handicap on the card but intriguing race, nonetheless. Top-weight Nostringsattached got off the mark at the sixth attempt when winning a Curragh maiden over the distance last month. The filly showed a good attitude to prevail last time and is of interest on her handicap debut on ground that should suit.
Turbulence is more exposed but a useful handicapper on his day as he showed when a short head 2nd of 16 at Naas (soft) three starts back. Not quite at the level of form on his last two starts but the 6-year-old gets the first time cheekpieces and a reproduction of his Naas performance might be good enough.
Bottom weight Speckled Meadow’s best performance this season came when a ½ length 2nd of 10 here (7f) in July. The 6-year-old hasn’t been at her best on her last couple of starts but she did hit winning form twice last October on soft/heavy ground. A mile & quarter is probably as far the mare wants to go but I could easily see her bouncing back to form here.
5:05 – Dublin To Bahrain October Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 4f
Aidan O’Brien has a couple of interesting three year-old’s making their handicap debuts in Alexandroupolis & Gulf Of Mexico. The first named found the St Leger to hot on just his fourth career start last month. A winner of soft ground maiden at Galway on racecourse debut last September. He remains capable of better and should be suited by the return to softer ground. Gulf Of Mexico cost 1,100,000 Gns as a yearling and makes a belated seasonal return here. A winner of Killarney maiden (soft) as a juvenile. I’m not sure what’s kept the Galileo colt off track since this meeting last year but he’s interesting enough in the first time blinkers. He’s in the Tatts Autumn Sales as his stablemate Alexandroupolis.
Sheila Lavery saddles Morcana & Solar Breeze. Morcana is a perfect 3-3 at Leopardstown an improving handicapper last season winning twice. She looked as good as ever when winning on Cork Listed race on her seasonal reappearance in April and when a 3 length 5th of 18 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. Couldn’t get involved when 6th of 11 in the Listed Galtres Stakes at York’s Ebor Festival last time but better expected back in strongly run handicap. The mares won on soft ground but whether she wants it heavy I’m not so sure. Stablemate Solar Breeze a winner at Dundalk in February gained a first turf success on her 13th attempt when comfortably beating 19 rivals at Naas 18 days ago. Last time was the filly’s first start beyond a mile and she looked well suited by 1m 2f. Has been hiked up 15 for that win but there could be more to come from her if she stays 1m 4f.
Top weight Chally Chute improved to win a Killarney handicap (2m 1f) in July and improved further when a ½ length 3rd of 17 to Brazil in a Premier Handicap (1m 4f) at Galway on his next start. Could never really get involved from mid division when a 12 length 10th of 30 in the Irish Cesarewitch last month. He’s won heavy ground in the past and it might pay to forgive his last time Curragh effort. Yard among the winners in the last week. Stall 15 could be better bit if he can negotiate it, I think he can go win.
Kempton
It’s good ground at Kempton, ideal flat racing ground but this is a jumps card. I’ve had a quick look at two races on the card.
3:30 – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero are 6-15 with their runners in the past 14 days so you must respect the claims of El Borracho who gained a sixth win over fences when winning at Bangor in August. He ran just as well in defeat when a ¾ length 3rd of 4 at Newton Abbot 50 days ago. Looks set for another big run on ground that suits. If he stays 2 m 2f he can win this.
Top weight Jay Jay Reilly gained a second course success when winning in February and posted a career best over C&D when a ½ length 2nd of 7 to one of today’s rivals Mercian Prince in May. The latter always must be respected around here, six course successes including the last two running’s of this race. The 12-year-old is 3lb better off with Jay Jay O’Reilly although that one is open to more progress. Plenty in his favour on race hat trick bid.
Thelasthighking made it 2-4 over fences when making all to win at Southwell in April. He’s a better chaser than a hurdler. He returns from a 193 day layoff with his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies in excellent form with 9 winners from 20 runners in the past 14 days.
4:05 – Sceau Royal has won the last two renewals of this 2m Listed hurdle and is the one they all have to beat but he does face some stronger rivals in his hat trick bid.
First Street, trained by Nicky Henderson, won at Newbury on seasonal return last November. He returns from wind surgery and if that procedure has had the desired effect this former C&D winner can push Sceau Royal all the way.
Rubaud made all to win the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle over C&D in February and improved again when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April. Must give Sceau Royal & First Street 2lb due to his Grade 2 success and will need to have improved over the summer to beat Sceau Royal and First Street but did win first time up last season and could get his own way out in front here.
Too Friendly has improved for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces this summer winning three of his last four starts including the last two in handicap company. Returning from a short lay off he looks worth his place in the line-up but will need to take another step forward to win.
Sedgefield
4:25 – Vickers.Bet Durham National Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m 5f
No Cruise Yet ended last season with two lesser efforts in the spring but prior to that he was a steadily progressive staying handicap chaser last season winning at Haydock and finishing runner-up at Bangor and a 9 ½ length 3rd of 13 in the Eider Chase (4m) at Newcastle. It will be interesting to see how fit he is on seasonal reappearance. However, he’s more than capable of winning a race like this off his present mark of 114.
Betting Advice:
Limerick
3:40 – The Goffer – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Leopardstown
2:45 – Catena Zapata – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:55 – Turbulence – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
5:05 – Chally Chute – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Bet365 and Moracana – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Finally
I’m having a five day break on the Isle Of Wight next week which means my next selections will be on Saturday. It means I will be missing day one of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting on Friday. I do have a couple Christian Williams horse note should they run on the day.
4:30 – Strictlyadancer is 2-2 over C&D and won this corresponding race in 2021. He’s now 1lb below his last winning mark. The 9-year-old returned from a 21 month absence with an encouraging 12 ¾ length 6th of 7 to Stolen Silver at Chepstow earlier this month. He wasn’t knocked about when his chance was gone and hopefully that kindness will be repaid in the coming weeks.
I notice that trainer Christian Williams has booked Gina Andrews for the ride. The going is currently soft at Cheltenham and Strictlyadancer needs good or good to soft ground and if he gets his ground, I think he’s got a good chance.
5:05 – It could be a good day for Christian Williams as I also fancy one of his runners in this 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle. Stringtoyourbow seemed to improve for the step up 3m when winning at Ayr (good to soft) in April.
The 6-year-old was hiked up 14lb for that comfortable Ayr success. He looked well ahead of the handicapper that day and is capable of more progress which makes a mark of 115 workable. The drop back in trip shouldn’t inconvenience him as he didn’t look short of speed last time.
Cheers
John