Hi all,
The Shunter’s win in the Cesarewitch got me off the cold list and it was about time. I’m still kicking myself for going with just Pendleton in York’s Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap and not adding Montassib but you have to take those hits on the chin.
Sunday Preview
Onto Sunday’s action. Flat racecourses are having their final fixtures of the 2023 season. Yesterday it was York and today it’s Goodwood. The best of today’s sport this side of the Irish Sea is at Ffos Las where the the highlight is DragonBet Welsh Champion Hurdle (3:20).
Across the Irish Sea at Naas there are two competitive big field Listed races Garnet Stakes (2:50) and the Bluebell Stakes (3:25).
The most valuable race on the Naas card isn’t either of the Listed contests it’s the Irish EBF Auction Series Race Final (2:15) which has €70,800 on offer to the winner of this juvenile contest. The eight race card concludes with the Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap (5:10) which has €90,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Even Cork gets in on the action with the Listed Co-Op Superstores Handicap Chase (4:55). The feature race of an eight race card.
I’m going to start Sunday’s Preview at Goodwood.
Goodwood
3:00 – It might not be the Stewards Cup, but the William Hill Epic Boost Handicap (6f) is run over the distance of that great race and it’s competitive enough Class 3 handicap. It may pay to focus on those runners near to the top of the handicap.
Probe won twice in the spring including a valuable 6f handicap at Newmarket in May. He’s struggled since and you would liked to have seen more from the 5-year-old when a 4 length 17th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup last time. Fine with ease in the ground, this does represent a drop in class from the races he has been contesting.
Spanish Star is 4-9 over C&D, two of those successes having come in this race, and goes well on soft ground. The 8-year-old is 6lb higher than when winning 12 months ago but has won twice this season and is just 1lb above his last winning mark. Should be there or thereabouts.
Gisburn shaped with plenty of encouragement when 4th of 19 on seasonal return at Doncaster in April. However, he was well beaten on his next two starts. First run since finishing down the field at York in May but has been gelded since and although the 4-year-old hasn’t won for two years he’s now down to a very good mark.
Monsieur Kodi won the Stewards Cup consolation race over C&D, from 2lb lower. Hasn’t been at the level of form on three starts since but he’s back on soft ground for the first time since winning here and must have a good chance.
Hierarchy overcame a slow start to win a C&D handicap 18 days ago. The leaders set a strong pace that day which helped, but he can’t afford a slow start today in this company. Only 4lb higher than last time and remains on a competitive mark.
Of those at the bottom of the weights Punchbowl Flyer is of interest. The 8-year-old helped set the strong pace in the race won by Hierarchy last time and eventually finished a 4 ¼ length 4th of 10. That was his best effort for some time and he’s more likely to get the race run to suit here. Has become well handicapped and is at his best on testing ground.
Verdict: Monsieur Kodi should go well over a C&D that suits. However, at the prices I can’t resist another course specialist Spanish Star who bids for a hat trick of wins in the race. The well handicapped Punchbowl Flyer lurks towards the bottom of the weights and has a chance on ground that suits. Gisburn had been gelded and is another who is down to winnable mark on a going day.
4:45 – This Class 2 handicap (1m) looks between Kathab and Grey’s Monument. The first namedhas been steadily progressive on his last four starts since going handicapping and posted a career best effort when a length 2nd of 14 at Kempton last time. Yet to race on ground worse than good and a flatter track may suit him better but he’s the one to beat.
Grey’s Monument improved for the fitting of the blinkers when winning nurseries at Haydock & York last Autumn. He struggled in Group & Listed company on two starts in the spring. No easy task under top weight back in a handicap but goes well on rain softened ground and rates the biggest danger to Kathab.
Ffos Las
3:20 – DragonBet Welsh Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) – 2m
Nemean Lion did well novice hurdling last season and made it 2-4 over timber when winning a Grade 2 Hurdle at Kelso in March. Needs softish ground so the ground should be fine and he’s capable of more improvement on his second season hurdling. I think he win if he’s ready to roll afer a 225 day absence.
Top-weight Strong Leader won his first three starts over hurdles last season before being outclassed in the Supreme Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Ended last season with a 2nd of 12 in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April. Should be fit enough on his return to action and is respected but long term is future looks over fences.
Gin Coco won first time up last season and stamped himself a useful handicap hurdler when finishing runner-up in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last November. Might prefer slightly better ground but his record off a layoff means he’s got to be seriously considered.
Irish challenger Fiveonefive has improved since going handicap hurdling and can’t be discounted albeit soft ground might be not what he wants. Yard won last year’s race with Effernock Fizz who’s in the line-up once more and the mare should ensure a good pace which will at least suit her stablemate.
Verdict: Nemean Lion is capable of better over hurdles this season and is the one I want to be with here ahead of Strong Leader and Gin Coco although the latter can land a handicap hurdle like this. Last year’s winner Effernock Fizz is back once more, and she can’t be allowed an uncontested lead as she was last year. If the pace is strong that would bring her stablemate Fiveonefive into the equation and has each way claims if getting the race run to suit
Naas
The two Listed races on the Naas card look to tough puzzles to solve. English challenger Gather Ye Rosebuds looks to have a good chance in the Bluebell Stakes (3:25). The filly made it 2-3 when winning at Hamilton in August. The return to rain softened ground suited the 3-year-old last time and she’s deserving of her place in the line-up. Azazat probably found the ground a bit on the quick side for her when a 6 ¾ length 5th of 11 to Time Lock in a Group 3 at Newmarket 16 days ag. Today’s much softer ground is a positive and she’s up to winning a race like this.
5:10 – Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 2m
Emmet Mullins won yesterday’s Cesarewitch with The Shunter and he’s got a couple of well fancied contenders in Filey Bay and Teed Up.
Filey Bay was a useful handicap hurdler last season finishing runner-up in the Betfair Hurdle and third in the County Hurdle. He’s just had three starts on the flat winning a Tramore maiden over today’s distance in August, disappointing over hurdles at Listowel last time but looks potentially well treated on handicap debut on the flat. The only negative could be very soft ground.
Top weight Teed Up was in great form at the Galway Festival winning the valuable 2m 1f amateur riders handicap and runner-up in a 1m 4f handicap before winning a handicap hurdle. Had an off day in the Irish Cesarewitch last time but not handicapped out of this if back to his best.
Drop The Anchor won this 12 months ago on heavy ground and is 8lb higher this time around. Never got involved after stumbling early in the Irish Cesarewitch last time but has probably been aimed at this race again and if they get more rain he could get into the money.
It looked like Raving Royal would go off favourite but there’s been good support for Filey Bay which means she’s been overtaken at the head of the ante post betting. Not seen winning at Thurles on handicap debut 12 months ago. Now 10lb higher but has only had five career starts and is open to further improvement with Colin Keane booked.
Raving Royal’s stablemate Immelmann finally got off the mark for Willie Mullins when winning a Thurles maiden (2m) 10 days ago. Two miles suited him last time as did soft ground. Has a 7lb penalty to carry but couldn’t be ruled out.
Flamborough is a light weight in with a serious chance. He’s just 2lb higher than when winning a Catterick for his previous yard 12 months ago. He’s improved since moving into handicap hurdle company on his last two starts and he’s in the mix back on the flat for the first time for Thomas Gibney.
Verdict: Filey Bay could hack up off what looks a good mark but at 7/2 I’m happy to take him on. Both Immelmann and Flamborough have nice light weights which could be useful if the ground eases even further. Immelmann’s stablemate Raving Royal hasn’t been seen since winning on handicap debut 374 days ago but is open to further progress. If the ground, turned heavy you couldn’t rule out last year’s winner Drop The Anchor either.
Cork
4:55 – Co-Op Superstores Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 1 ½ f
Fighting Fit has returned from a short break looking a much improved handicap chaser winning at Galway and Listowel. His latest success was a career best from the 8-year-old and even with a 10lb rise he’ll be tough to beat.
Whiskeywealth won twice on soft ground earlier in the year and was in the process of finishing runner-up to improved mare Dinoblue when falling at the last at Fairyhouse in April. Disappointed behind Dinoblue at the Punchestown Festival when last seen in action but his yard won this 2019 and he can’t be ruled out if ready to roll after a summer break.
Union Park posted a career best when winning a Kilbeggan handicap chase last month. He’s now up 9lb and back on softer ground but he seems likely to get a strongly run race and should be in the mix.
Verdict: Fighting Fit could well find the improvement to defy a 10lb rise in the weights and is a worthy enough favourite. If the ground wasn’t too soft, I would fancy Union Park. I can’t really justify two goes in a race like this and my sole pick is Whiskeywealth.
Betting Advice:
Goodwood
3:00 – Spanish Star – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral and Gisburn – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
Naas
5:10 – Flamborough – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral Raving Royal – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Cork
4:55 – Whiskeywealth – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral.
It’s likely to be a quiet week on the betting front until Friday but watch your inbox for any updates.
Cheers
John