Hi all,
It’s the final day of Cheltenham’s November Meeting on Sunday with the big betting being the valuable Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (3:30). Sixteen have been declared for this year’s race which has £56,270 on offer to the winner. The other highlight of a seven race card is the Grade 2 Shloer Chase (2:55). Just four have been declared but they are: Jonbon, Edwardstone, Editeur Du Gite and Nube Negra. The first three are all Grade 1 winners and although Nube Negra jas yet to win a Grade 1 (0-7 in the Grade) he has won the last two running’s of the race.
Besides the Cheltenham action we also have the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan (2:30) and BetGoodwin Southern National Handicap Chase at Fontwell (2:04).
ITV Racing are covering four races from Cheltenham and the Southern National on a five race programme on Sunday afternoon.
Inside today’s preview I’ve looked at the five races on ITV. Plus, I have had the chance to preview the Troytown Handicap Chase.
Cheltenham
It’s a six race card for Greatwood Hurdle Day. I won’t be looking at the first race which is a novice hurdle (1:10) or the last race which is a bumper (4:00). Although I have to say I do like the look of Brechin Castlein the latter race.
A winner of an Irish Point in February, Brechin Castle was an expensive purchase after winning that race at £165,000. He made an impressive winning debut for new connections in a Sedgefield bumper (soft) 28 days ago. He looks well worth his place in Listed company and will take the beating. It will be interesting to see his price when the bookies price up the race.
1:45 – cavani.co.uk Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4f
Just seven have been declared. Until last year it used to be a novice chase but the change to a handicap hasn’t seen an increase in the field size.
Top weight Crebilly won two of his five starts over hurdles last season including a valuable handicap hurdle at Sandown (2m 4f) in April. He has the scope to make a chaser and hopefully he can make his first start over fences a winning one.
Es Perfecto, twice a winner over hurdles, returned from a 23 month absence to shape with promise on two starts earlier this year. At least he showed that he retains plenty of his old ability on those two runs. Might need further than 2n 4f this season but should make a chaser and has a chance on chase debut.
Verdict: Es Perfecto and Crebilly are both interesting on chase debut. The latter has top weight to carry but has the scope to make a chaser and could make a winning debut over fences.
2:20 – Jewson Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 3 ½ f
A possible 14 runners but one of the Wayfinder was due to run here on Saturday and would seem unlikely to run in both races. I’m left with six on my shortlist.
Guetapan Collonges madeit 5 wins from 10 starts over fences when making a winning seasonal return at Carlisle (3m) last month. He looked better than ever last time and a 7lb rise looks workable. He’s got scope for further improvement stepped back up in trip and would seem a worthy favourite.
Top weight Cloudy Glen has only had five starts since winning Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup in 2021. Ran well on his reappearance last season when third in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February. Prior to that he had won first time up in 2018, 2020 & 2021. His record fresh and the form of the Venetia Williams yard means he’s got to be high on the shortlist. Venetia had one place here on Friday but her record at the track in November is 0 winners from 58 runners, 8 placed.
Captain Cattistock gained a third success at Cheltenham when winning a handicap chase (3m 2f) in April. Never got involved when pulled up in the Kerry National at Listowel last time. I can forgive him that performance as he wasn’t suited by the track Better expected back here but I’m not sure he’s at his best on soft ground.
First Lord De Cuet remains a maiden over fences after seven starts but he’s placed six times so you can’t knock his consistency. He went close on his return last December so can go well fresh. He goes well on soft ground, and I think he’s handicapped to win a race like this if a summer wind operation has had the desired effect.
City Chief has only had four starts over fences and has the scope to do well in staying handicap chases this season. Soft ground suits and he’s got a chance if ready roll on his return from a summer break.
Of those at the bottom of the weights you can’t rule out Dom Of Mary. He seemed to improve for the step up to an extended 3m 1f when a 4 length 4th of 12 at Plumpton 13 days ago. This stiffer track should suit him better than Plumpton. If the 7-year-old’s jumping holds up in this much deeper race, he could get into the money.
Verdict: Guetapan Collonges could be capable of a bigger performance over fences and is a worthy favourite. The form of the Venetia Williams yard means you must respect Cloudy Glen who also has an excellent record first time up. Captain Cattistock goes well around here, but better ground would probably suit him better. I think First Lord De Cuet is well enough treated to win a race like this and is having his first start since wind surgery. Dom Of Mary has a handy light weightand could be the sort to improve plenty this season.
2:55 – Shloer Chase (Grade 2) – 2m
Jonbon’s won five of his six starts over fences. His only defeat coming when runner-up to El Fabiolo in the Arkle Novices’ Chase here in March. Ended last season with a win in open company in the Grade 1 Celebration Stakes at Sandown in April. He probably wins and his claims are there for all to see but at 4/7 he’s plenty short enough given the quality of his three rivals
Nube Negra will have been trained for the race in his bid for a hat trick of wins in the race. This is a much better race than the two previous ones he’s won, and soft ground isn’t what he wants either. I will be very surprised if he can land the hat trick.
Edwardstone won the Arkle Novices’ Chase over C&D at the 2022 Festival and made a winning seasonal return in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek at Sandown last December. Not in the same level on three subsequent starts and was well beaten in the Champion Chase at this year’s Festival. He’s better than he was able to show last time. Might need further than 2m this season but he’s starting to become a value price.
Editeur Du Gite improved from handicap company to win the Grade 2 Desert Orchid at Kempton over Christmas and then the rescheduled Grade 1 Clarence House Stakes here in January (Edwardstone a head second). Nowhere near his best on his last three starts, including when likely needed the run in the Haldon Cup at Exeter on his return to action 9 days ago. His improved form came when making all and his rivals can’t afford to let him loose on the lead.
Verdict: Jonbon is a ridiculous price but that doesn’t mean he wont win. The only chance Editeur Du Gite has is to go off hard from the front. Soft ground would be against Nube Negra although he’s been trained for the race which he’s won for the last two years. That leaves Edwardstone who might need further than 2m these days but did win first time up last season.
3:30 – Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 2m ½ f
With Knickerbockerglory and Lookaway in the line-up the race should be run at a decent gallop.
The bookies slashed the odds on the Willie Mullins trained Onlyamatteroftime this week into 4/1 favourite. If it wasn’t for the fact that Paul Byrne who won, this with The Shunter in 2020 owns the horse he would be double figure odds. Of course, the switch to Willie Mullins might have improved the 7-year-old by two stone and if it has, he can win but he’s not for me.
Iberico Lord improved notably for wind surgery last season winning a heavy ground novice at Stratford in April and progressing again when a ½ length 2nd of 15 to a stablemate in a valuable 2m handicap on the final day of the jump season. The forecast rain will suit the 5-year-old and he’s capable of more improvement having had just four starts over hurdles.
Dan Skelton has won this twice in 2016 & 2021 and he’s got a couple of big contenders in L’Eau Du Sud & Knickerbockerglory. L’Eau Du Sud a winner twice over hurdles when trained in France ran finished third at Kempton last December and occupied the same position in the valuable Morebattle Handicap Hurdle at Kelso when last seen in action in March. He’s had a summer wind-op and looks the type to land a nice two mile handicap pot this season. Knickerbockerglory runner-up in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. He helped force the pace when running out a comfortable winner of an Ascot handicap hurdle (1m 7 ½ f) 15 days ago. A 5lb penalty shouldn’t stop him and he’ll like the soft ground.
Nemean Lion made a good start to hurdling last season winning two of his four starts ending the season with a Grade 2 novice hurdle success at Kelso in March. The 6-year-old improved to win the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance last month. A progressive second season hurdler he likes plenty of juice in the ground and he’s high on my shortlist. It won’t be an east task under joint top weight of 12-0 but last year’s winner also carried the same weight.
Lookaway won a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree in April 2022. He didn’t kick on three starts over hurdles last season (yard out of from) and was 15 lengths behind Nemean Lion at Kelso in the spring. Started this season with two wins in May and returned from a 160 day layoff to make all to win a Grade 2 novice hurdle over C&D last month. Must be respected on handicap debut but won’t get his own way out in front here.
Too Friendly won three handicap hurdles in the Summer and improved again returned from a short break to finish a 2 ¾ length 2nd of 5 to Rubaud in a Kempton Listed race last month. He’s been nudged up 2lb for his recent effort and he’s another in with a chance.
Verdict: They should go a decent gallop with Lookaway and Knickerbockerglory in the line-up.If more money comes in for Onlyamatteroftime than the chances, are connections know he has plenty in hand on his rivals. Iberico Lord should really have beaten his stablemate at Sandown on his final start last season. He returns off what looks like a good mark and should go close. I have had the progressive Nemean Lion in mind for this since he won at Ffos Las on his return last month. It won’t be easy off top weight. But if he was trained by Nicholls or Mullins he would half his present odds. Dans Skelton’s record in the race means anything he saddles need respecting and L’Eau Du Sud has a nice 2m handicap pot in this winter. Too Friendly is going the right way and he should get the race run to suit. He’s not one to dismiss lightly after his recent Kempton run behind Rubaud.
Fontwell
2:04 – BetGoodwin Southern National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 4f
A dreadful turnout. The only one that has caught my eye is Gerico Ville. Twice a winner over hurdles he made no show from the rear when down the field on his chase debut at Huntingdon 20 days ago. He’s surely better than that effort and given his improved form over hurdles came when ridden prominently he will surely be ridden more aggressively in a race which doesn’t have much in the way of pace. The cheekpieces return and the testing ground shouldn’t worry him as he won on soft over hurdles. He’s the token selection and may end up being a small interest bet.
Verdict: If he can jump a fence then I think Gerico Ville can win this on just his second start over the larger obstacles.
Navan
It looked like hard work at Navan on Saturday so it could be heavy all over for Troytown Day.
2:30 – Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m
Unlike a few of the valuable staying handicap chases run in Ireland this autumn the Troytown could see a maximum field off 22 go to post. Mind you no less than 15 of the 22 runners hail from the Gordon Elliott yard. Another three runners are trained by Henry De Bromhead. I suppose it tells you all you need to know about the state of staying handicap chasing across the Irish Sea.
The three of the Elliott runners I like are Hollow Games, Run Wild Fred and Coko Beach most.
Hallow Beach has transferred his useful hurdle form to the larger obstacles. His first four starts over fences came over 2m/2m 1f but he showed he stayed further when a staying on 9 ½ 3rd of 22 in the Galway Plate (2m 6 ½ f). The first time cheekpieces go on and she should stay 3m. High on my shortlist.
Run Wild Fred won the 2021 renewal and he shaped with plenty of promise when a 6 length 5th of 12 in the Munster National last month. That was his first run for 12 months and so it was a good comeback. He’s only 4lb higher than when he won this race two years back and looks to be well treated. The pick of Jack Kennedy.
Coko Beach was only 4th in last years race but he did finish 3 lengths and two places in front of Run Wild Fred in the Munster National on his seasonal reappearance. His a good jumper of fence and that’s always a plus in races like this.
Two of the Henry De Bromhead runners Largy Debut & Ain’t That A Shame have claims. Largy Debut was a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 12 in the Munster National last time. He’s been nudged up 2lb for that effort but should go well again. Ain’t That A Shame shaped like the run was needed when 9th of 17 in the Kerry National 60 days ago. Both his career wins have with heavy in the going description so further rain won’t inconvenience the 9-year-old. I think there’s a decent handicap chase in him this winter as he showed when a length 4th of 28 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas.
Of the non-Elliott and De Bromhead runners; The Devilscoachman and Macs Charm are both in the mix.
The Devilscoachman won three of his five starts over fences last season. His only non-winning performances coming when falling in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse and pulling up in the Irish Grand National on his handicap chase debut. Ran well for a long way in that race before his stamina began to run out after three out. A return to a strongly run 3m will suit and he looks handily treated off a mark of 147.
Macs Charm got off the mark at the fourth attempt over fences when winning a novices’ handicap chase (3m ½ f) at Fairyhouse in April. Needs to jump better than he did at Fairyhouse but he’s open to improvement in that regard. Starts the new season off an 8lb higher mark on his return to action but that mark may prove workable this season. Not without a chance if ready to roll after a 223 day layoff.
Verdict: Probability suggests this will go to Gordon Elliott given he trains 68% of the runners. I have two of his Hollow Games and Run Wild Fred both high on my shortlist, but you wouldn’t be shocked if one of his other runners popped up. There could be a nice pot in Ain’t That A Shame who needed his return to action in the Kerry National and goes well on heavy ground. The Devilscoachman had a good 2022/23 season over fences and ran well for a long way in the Irish Grand National before his stamina ran out. He’s one to consider on his seasonal reappearance off what looks a workable mark. Macs Charm ended last season on a winning note and could do better this winter.
Betting Advice:
Cheltenham
2:20 – First Lord De Cuet – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Dom Of Mary – 1pt win – 25/1 @ Paddy Power or 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:30 – Nemean Lion – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and Iberico Lord – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Navan
2:30 – Run Wild Fred – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and Hollow Games – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
I expect it to be a quiet week on the selections from until Friday but as ever watch your inboxes for any updates.
Cheers
John