Hi all,
The Grade B Carrickmines Handicap Chase (4:55) is the feature race of a seven race card at Leopardstown. Inside today’s main piece I have looked at a couple of the handicap races at Leopardstown and one at Wexford.
Leopardstown
Its yielding, good to yielding in places and they have been watering on the chase track to maintain that going.
4:55 – Carrickmines Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 5 ½ f
The drying ground means just nine have been declared for a winner first prize of €26,550. Mind you I can make a case for six of the nine so the race remains a tricky puzzle to solve.
Panda Boy finished a ¾ length 3rd of 28 in the valuable Paddy Power Handicap Chase here (3m) over Christmas. A winner here over hurdles here last season, he clearly has a liking for the track. A 4lb risein the weight’s isn’t harsh given he’s just had four starts over fences and he could be capable of better.
Previous C&D winner Birchdale was back to his best when an 8 length 4th of 23 over C&D last month. That was the 9-year-old’s first run for six months and is expected to go close.
In the same colours as Birchdale is Ilikedwayurthinkin. I think he can land a nice pot over fences, and he’s nicely handicapped on his best handicap hurdle form. Hampered and unseated his rider at the 6th over C&D last month. Interesting in the first time blinkers replacing the cheekpieces.
Jerandme was a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 14 in last year’s race from 2lb lower. The quicker the ground the better for him and he had a recent spin on the all-weather which should put him spot on fitness wise here. His stablemate Lieutenant Command seems to have lost his way and has failed to complete three of his four starts since unseating his rider two out in a similar race at Naas last February. He had looked like he would have gone close to winning but for that mishap. He comes with significant risks. However, Michael O’Sullivan takes off 5lb and if the 9-year-old can put it together he’s nicely treated.
Whatsnotoknow didn’t 3m 4f when fancied 5/1 for the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last month. Drop back in trip looks a plus and given the market support he received last time suggests he’s on a winnable mark for a yard among the winners.
Verdict: Pando Boy and Birchdale have solid claims but at 3/1 & 9/2 at the time of writing they are a bit short for me. I’m looking for at least 6/1 for my selections in a race as competitive as this one. That brings into the picture last year’s runner-up Jerandme, Ilikedwayurthinkin, Whatsnotoknow and Lieutenant Command. I’m loathe to leave out Ilikedwayurthinkin who I tipped up last time. The better the ground the more I want Jerandme onside but a lot depends on how much water has been put on the chase track. If you like Jerandme than you must have something on what looks the stable second string Lieutenant Command.
Jerandme – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Lieutenant Command – 1pt each way – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places)
3:45 – Indie Bell looked the most likely winner when making a bad mistake at the last before eventually finishing a 6 length 6th of 25 at Navan 3 weeks ago. Same mark here and shouldn’t be far away.
Time For Rocco posted a career best on RPR’s when a 4 length 3rd of 16 at Fairyhouse 25-days ago and can be taken lightly in a competitive handicap.
Bynx is a twenty race maiden over flat and hurdles was another to post a personal best over hurdle’s last time. The 5-year-old finished a ½ length 2nd of 19 at Gowran Park 15-days ago. It was heavy that day so the mare faces different ground here but she’s only 3lb higher here and is unexposed over 2m 4f. The booking of Danny Mullins suggests connections are expecting another big run from the mare.
Bynx – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365
Wexford
3:25 – The Willie Mullins trained mare Braganza has been well beaten on her three starts in much better company this season which isn’t a great pointer to her chance even dropped in class here. However, the 8-year-old does gets the first time cheekpieces and a return to a sounder surface. If she could reproduce her 7 length 5th of 19 to Love Envoi in last season’s Dawn Run Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival she would go close.
Braganza – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John