Hi all,
I was hoping to end Royal Ascot on high yesterday, but it wasn’t to be. The weekend isn’t over yet though as the Sky Bet Sunday Series caravan rolls into Pontefract and across the Channel it’s the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (3:00). Nashwa third in the Oaks at Epsom bids to go two places better and land the French Filles Classic.
Chantilly
3:00 – Prix de Diane Longines (Group 1) – 1m 2 ½ f
Nashwa was still bang there coming to the final furlong but was just done by a pair of stronger stayers at Epsom. The drop back in trip will suit the daughter of Frankel but the forecast soft ground is an unknown. If she takes after her dam, she should be very effective on rain softened ground.
Zellie a Group 1 winning juvenile (heavy) ran with plenty of credit, on ground that would have been plenty quick for her when a 2 ½ length 4th of 13 in the English 1,000 Guineas. The step up to 1m 2 ½ f asks another question of the filly but the ground is a plus for her chance.
Times Square finished a neck 3rd of 15 in the French 1,000 Guineas last time. That was a fine effort from her and there’s a good chance that she will be suited by the step up to 1m 2 ½ f. One place and ¾ length behind her in 4th was Rosacea. Rosacea had been sent off favourite that day and I can see her reversing places with Times Square today. Whether she’s good enough to beat Nashwa will be revealed later today. However, on pedigree she’s bred to improve for 1m 2f and connections run a pacemaker which should ensure a decent gallop and Christophe Soumillon takes over in the saddle for the first time. The only negative is stall 17 but if she can overcome her wide draw, I think she can go close.
Verdict: This race looks an ideal fit for Nashwa but despite her wide draw I still like the claims of Rosacea each way.
Pontefract
I have had a good look at three of today’s Sky Bet Sunday Series races and I have selections in all three.
5:15 – Didtheyleaveuoutto isn’t an easy horse to win with, but he’s only had three starts on the flat and today’s 2m 2f could really suit the 9-year-old who is well suited to a sound surface.
When you think of Peter Bowen you think summer jumps, but the trainer does have winners on the level and his runner Twilight Prince must be respected. He’s a ten race maiden but the 4-year-old produced an improved performance on RPR’s when a neck 2nd of 6 at Bath (2m 1f) last time. He’s not bred for marathon trips but his two efforts since stepped up 2m + have suited him. Silvestre De Sousa has been booked for the ride and he’s got a handy draw in stall 2.
Byron Hill won twice last season for Charlie Fellowes with the last of the wins coming off today’s mark of 75 at Nottingham (2m). Now with Joseph Tuite. He shaped like the run was needed when 5th of 7 at Salisbury last month. Very effective on quick ground the 4-year-old looks on a competitive mark and looks overpriced in the early betting.
6:15 – Top-weight Bullet Force drops a couple of notches in class in this 1m handicap. The 3-year-old was a good 1 ½ length 3rd of 12 to Outgate at Chester 8-days ago. Racing the first visor he came from behind to take third. Today’s extra furlong on stiffer track looks a positive although the visor he wore at Chester is replaced by the blinkers. He looks the one to beat from a yard still among the winners.
Fiftyshadesaresdev is 0-8 but he’s got some good form here and stayed on to finish a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 9 over C&D last time. He ran lazily last time and the fitting of the first time cheekpieces looks a positive move. If the headgear has the desired effect, he can take advantage of handy enough mark.
6:45 – Pontefract keep the most competitive race until last with seventeen declared for a tricky 6f handicap. Although prominent racers normally hold sway here over the distance the forecast strong pace could swing the advantage towards the closers.
Corinthia Knight took advantage of some help from the handicapper to make it 4-5 at the track 13-days ago. He’s been nudged up 2lb for that success but remains on winnable mark and Harry Davies takes off a handy 5lb which negates the weight rise. Big chance out of stall 2.
Dream Composer also comes into the race in winning form and is bidding for the hat trick after wins here (5f) and last time over today’s distance at Goodwood 14-days ago. Has a 3lb rise in the weights but should give another good account given his current form.
Ghathanfar, a winner at Wetherby in May has continued in good form finishing runner-up on his last two starts. A front runner he has good draw in stall 4 but he will likely face plenty of pace pressure which could make life tough.
Tim Easterby has a trio of contenders in Music Society, Golden Apollo and Manigordo and three have claims. Music Society a winner at Catterick 16-days ago bids for back to back wins in the race but has wide draw in stall 13 to overcome. That said he’s a hold up horse and will be dropped in to come with a late run. Manigordo is 5lb below his last winning mark but he’s not the easiest to win with and comes into the race on a losing run that goes back to April 2021. Comes into the race after a decent enough effort from behind when a 2 length 3rd of 11 at Chester 8 days ago. Quick ground suits and the forecast strong pace will suit. The one I like though is previous C&D winner Golden Apollo is on an even longer losing run with his last success coming in Ayr’s Silver Cup in September 2019. He’s now 17lb below that mark and he did finish 2nd of 20 in last season’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon off 15lb higher. He’s not the most reliable these days but he was a running on 2 ½ length 4th of 21 at York last weekend and reproduction of something close to his Great St Wilfrid Run would see the 8-year-old go very close here.
Betting Advice:
Chantilly
3:00 – 1pt each way – Rosacea – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Pontefract
5:15 – 1pt win – Twilight Prince – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Byron Hill – 25/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
6:15 – 1pt each way – Fiftyshadesaresdev – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
6:45 – 1pt each way – Golden Apollo – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John