Hi all,
What a fantastic day’s racing yesterday. Made all the sweeter by having three winning selections. There was a frustrating aspect to the day though. The races I spent most time on didn’t produce the goods.
I’m not expecting things to go as well on Sunday on what looks a tough punting day at the Dublin Racing Festival with three tricky big field handicaps in addition, of course to the four Grade 1’s. It’s also day two of Scottish Cheltenham Trials Weekend at Musselburgh.
Once again, I’m concentrating on Leopardstown and like yesterday I have had look at all the races at the Dublin Racing Festival. Today’s betting advice follows at the end of this preview.
Leopardstown
12:45 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 1 ½ f
Gordon Elliott has a couple of big contenders in likely favourite Party Central and Glan. Party Central won a Listed mare’s bumper last Spring on her final start last season. Two from three over hurdles this season she put in a career best last time when winning a mare’s Listed hurdle at Punchestown in December. That success came over 2 ½ f than today’s race but the way she travelled through the race suggested she won’t be inconvenienced by the drop in trip. A mark of 121 looks lenient for handicap hurdle and she’s the one to beat.
Glan is 1-4 over hurdles, winning a good ground Fairyhouse maiden in October (2m 2f). Not disgraced but not quite at her best when 3rd of 7 in a Grade 3 at Down Royal later that month. Back to form effort when a neck second of 18 to Gua du Large on handicap debut back at Fairyhouse in November. Doing her best work at the finish today’s extra 1 ½ f should suit and she’s now proven in a big field handicap scenario. Might not want the ground to get too soft but looks capable of bold show here.
One who does like a bit of juice in the ground is Stand Up Lucy. The 8-year-old is more experienced than the Elliott pair and did finish one place ahead of Glan at Down Royal. Steadily progressive over hurdles she was 4 lengths and two places behind Glan at Fairyhouse last time. Two longer trip looks a plus and she won’t be far away at the finish.
Verdict: Gordon Elliott has a strong hand here with Party Central and Glan. Of the rest Stand Up Lucy has been running well this season and has each way claims.
1:20 – Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5 ½ f
There are three Grade 1 winning novice chasers in Master McShee, Fury Road and Beacon Edge among the eight runners it’s a beginners’ chase winner Galopin Des Champs who is a best priced 4/7 favourite for the race. It’s not difficult see why though after his all the way win on his chase debut. It was performance that marked him down as a future Gold Cup winner. Whilst I think he will win he is a very short price and if all the eight runners stand their ground their ground there’s an opportunity for each way punters.
Verdict: Galopin Des Champs shouldn’t be as short in the betting as he is but is price is based on potential. I think he wins. However, with eight runners there’s an opportunity for an each-way bet. This trip might be on the short side for Fury Road. Master McShee will like an ease in the ground and won here over hurdles last season. This looks like Beacon’s Edge’s trip over fences and the first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition and the Noel Meade yard have won this twice since 2015.
1:55 – Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
Chacun Pour Soi bids for the hat trick. The 10-year-old was a bitterly disappointing 8/13 favourite when well beaten in the Tingle Creek at Sandown on his seasonal reappearance last time. Needs to bounce back from that below par effort but his form figures at Leopardstown are 2111. If he’s back to last season’s best he wins. The 4/5 available with bet365 on Friday evening looks value to me.
I tipped Dunvegan earlier in the week each way at 12/1 (three places) and with just five now runningI will be bitterly disappointed if he can’t get in to the first three.
Verdict: A back to form Chacun Pour Soi wins this.
2:25 – Bulmers Secret Orchard Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m 5 ½ f
The handicaps get harder with 18 declared for this valuable handicap chase with €73,750 on offer to the winner.
Blackbow heads the ante post betting after 3 ¼ length 2nd of 12 to Dunvegan in Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse last time. He’s up 5lb for that effort and has a big chance if his stamina holds out.
Birchdale has been the gamble of the race. The 8-year-old shaped well when 8 ½ lengths 6th of 28 to School Boy Hours in Paddy Power Chase (3m) here last time. The application of the first time cheekpieces had the desired effect as he travelled well before his stamina ran out after the last. The drop in trip looks a good move.
The Shunter in the same colours as Birchdale. The 9-year-old had a great 2020-21 season over fences and hurdles. A shade unlucky when unlucky when a 4 ¾ length 4th of 22 to Royal Rendezvous in Galway Plate last time. I wonder whether he’s been aimed at the festival?
Fakir D’alene made it 2-3 over fences when beating seven rivals on handicap chase debut at Thurles 14-days ago. The fitting of the blinkers has been a positive and there was plenty to like about his jumping and his attitude at the finish last time. Up 5lb for his Thurles success and open to further improvement over fences.
Max Flamingo an improving handicap hurdler last spring had been running well in beginners chases this season before finishing a respectable 18 ¼ lengths 4th of 8 to Fury Road in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novices’ Chase here over 3m last time. Interesting on his handicap chase debut but does need to improve on what he’s shown so far.
Gallant John Joe has been backed this week in the ante post market. Did well on his three starts when sent novice chasing two seasons back. The 9-year-old was off for 22 months before finishing 4th to Ferny Hollow in a Grade 1 here at Christmas and the fifth of 8 to Bob Olinger at Punchestown. Looked like he was still need of the run last time and better expected on his handicap debut.
Ten Ten ended last season with a couple of personal best efforts in valuable handicap chases at Naas and Punchestown. Seems ground versatile and although both those efforts came over 3m he’s equally effective over shorter. Ran like the run was needed when pulling up at Limerick over Christmas. He remains capable of landing a decent pot when all the cards fall right.
Rebel Gold was travelling like the most likely winner when coming down three out at Gowran Park two starts back. He showed no ill effects from that fall when a ½ length 2nd of 14 at Limerick (Ten Ten pulled up) last time. The handicapper has raised him 3lb for that run but he should remain competitive.
Winter Escape was an 11-length 3rd of 11 to yesterday’s Irish Gold Cup Winner Conflated two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when a 10 ½ lengths 5th of 14 to Grange Walk when dropped back to 2m 1f here last time. He likes a bit of cut in the ground and is 3lb below his last winning mark.
Samcro isn’t the horse he once was and was last of 8 in the Grade 1 Savills Chase here at Christmas. Last season was a total write off although he did manage to win a Grade 3 at Killarney in May. He’s 1-1 in February won the Grade 1 2m novice hurdle here in 2018. Davy Russell since to such good effect in yesterday’s big race is back in the saddle for the first time since the pair won the Grade 1 Marsh Novices Chase at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. The 10-year-old makes his handicap debut here and maybe the drop-in class may see him return to form. You couldn’t totally dismiss it.
3:00 – Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m
I’m hoping that my Champion Hurdle each way selection Saint Roi runs well to keep that bet alive. Zanahiyr is getting better with racing. Still, it’s hard to look beyond Honeysuckle who goes for the race hat trick. She’s unbeaten on 13 starts under rules and bids for a tenth Grade 1 success.
Verdict: I can’t really look beyond Honeysuckle here who can win her tenth Grade 1 contest.
3:35 – Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m
Appreciate It won this last year on the way to winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. This is a race that trainer Willie Mullins has dominated and he aims for his ninth success in the race since 2013. He has four of the nine declared runners, The pick seems to be Champion Bumper winner Sir Gerhard is the ante post favourite who made all to win over C&D on his hurdles debut over Christmas. He jumped well that day and a win here will enhance his Supreme Novices claims. Stablemate El Fabiolo made a winning start for Willie Mullins at Thurles on New Year’s Day. The 5-year-old probably didn’t beat much for his 15-length success but he’s an exciting hurdler who will win more races this season and could be a Grade 1 horse. The likes of Three Stripe Life runner-up to stablemate Mighty Potter in a Grade 1 over C&D at Christmas and My Mate Mozzie who would have won the Grade 1 Royal Bond last time but for making a bad mistake at the last have better hurdles form than Sir Gerhard but don’t have the potential he has.
Verdict: It could be a very big day for Willie Mullins and I think Sir Gerhard can enhance his Supreme claims with a win here. Stablemate El Fabiolo also has untapped potential over hurdles and could be the one to chase Sir Gerhard home.
4:10 – Liffey Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m
Twenty-eight runners and arguably the most competitive race of the whole Dublin Racing Festival. I love races like this. I managed cut the field down to 13 contenders and I still may not have found the winner.
Carrarea has improved for going handicapping on his last two starts. A personal best from the 5-year-old when a solid 6 ¾ lengths 3rd of 12 to Metier in handicap hurdle at Lingfield 16-days ago.
Broomfields Jeremy beat Carrarea by a head when last seen in action at Fairyhouse in November. The runner-up has improved since and that race came over 2m 4f. He’s up 6lb but can’t be ruled provided the ground isn’t to soft.
Cask Mate twice a winner over hurdles in the Autumn of 2020 before finishing a 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. Won on the flat at Bellewstown in September before finishing an 8-length 2nd of 5 to Zanahiyr in a Garde 2 at Down Royal last time in October. Lightly raced for his age and interesting on his handicap debut for a yard that won this in 2017.
Magic Tricks normally runs well in these big field handicaps without winning. Runner-up at Down Royal two starts back before a career best effort when a 2-length 3rd of 18 to Gua du Large in handicap at Fairyhouse last time. Nudged up 2lb for that effort but Shane Fitzgerald takes off a handy 5lb which negates the weight rise. Should be bang there if in the same form as last time.
Get My Drift put in a career best when an 8 ¾ length 3rd of 18 to Brides Hill on handicap hurdle debut over C&D last time. Might prefer softer ground but looks like he’s on a competitive mark.
Surprise Package finished 1 ¼ length and one place in front of Get My Drift last time. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again. The 6-year-old was doing his best work at the finish and a more strongly run will suit him.
Wouldn’t You Agree finished ½ length in front of Visionarian in a Grade B handicap hurdle at Killarney in August and improved again in defeat when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 18 to Dysart Diamond at Listowel in September. Up 2lb and can go close if fully tuned up after a break. Might prefer slightly better ground. Visionarian a stablemate of Surprise Package wasn’t seen to best effect when an 8 ½ length 7th of 18 to Gua du Large at Fairyhouse last time. He gets a 5lb pull from Wouldn’t You Agree and a strongly run 2m will suit the 7-year-old.
Gua Du Large put in a much-improved effort when winning at Fairyhouse last time. He was raised 6lb for that effort but given he’s only had seven starts over hurdles there could be more to come from the 7-year-old and he’s effective in the ‘hurly burly’ of a big field handicap.
Sea Ducar beat Galopin Des Champs in a Gowran Park novice hurdle in November 2020 with Get My Drift 3 lengths further back in third. Whilst I wouldn’t take that form to literally. He showed he a decent hurdler on his day when finishing a 5-length to Master McShee in a C&D handicap hurdle a month later. Returned from a six-month absence and should be all the better for his 18 ¾ lengths ninth of 18 to Brides Hill in the same race last time.
Add in last time out winners Mighty Tom and Autumn Evening. The former won a Thurles in December and is going the right way. Meanwhile the latter showed a good turn of foot to beat 4 rivals in a conditions hurdle at Fairyhouse 22-days ago. If he’s as effective in a strongly run big field scenario he should be in the mix.
Champagne Gold is back over hurdles today after two runs in chases this season. He was an excellent 1 ¼ length 2nd of 22 in this corresponding race last season, off 4lb lower, and must be respected if reproducing that performance here.
Arcadian Sunrise got bogged down in heavy ground when only 9th of 18 in the November handicap at Naas. Prior to that 8-year-old had won a 2m handicap at York’s Ebor Festival. Back over hurdles for the first time since jumping well to beat 16 rivals at the Galway Festival. A strongly run 2m suits but he’s now 10lb higher than for his last success.
4:40 – Coolmore N.H. Sires Santiago Irish EBF Mares I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m
Sixteen mares are set to meet the starter. The Willie Mullins trained Pink In The Park is the early bird favourite, The 5-year-old hasn’t been seen since making a winning racecourse debut at Listowel back in September. It was good to yielding when she won last time. It was impressive success and she looked a graded mare on the evidence of that run. Gordon Elliott saddled the winner of this race in 2020 and he has a couple of contenders in Bellatior who won a Naas bumper on her racecourse debut in November. She looks useful and gets the addition of the first-time hood here. Jamie Codd rode her that day but he’s on Harmonya Maker. The 5-year-old built on the promise of her racecourse debut 2nd of 12 at Navan when comfortably beating beating 12 rivals at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. She’s open to plenty more improvement, looks a high-class prospect, and could upset the short-priced favourite.
Verdict: This looks a Mullins versus Elliott race and I think the Elliott trained Harmonya Maker can get the better of the Mullins trained favourite Pink In The Park.
Musselburgh
Just the two selections on the Musselburgh card.
2:40 – Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 3m
Coastal World a winner of a Ballinrobe novice hurdle back in May. The 7-year-old has improved on both starts this season and was a good 7 ½ length 5th of 15 to Good Time Jonny in novice handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on his handicap debut at Christmas. He was doing his best work at the finish last time and is going the right way. His Ballinrobe victory came over 2m 6f there is a good chance he will today’s 3m trip.
3:15 – bet365 Scottish Champion Handicap Chase (For The Bowes-Lyon Trophy) (Class 3) – 2m
Lucky Flight isn’t the most consistent of handicap chasers but he’s run well on his last two starts and is now 5lb below his last winning mark. The 8-year-old was travelling as well as anything when making a mistake and unseating his rider two out at Kelso three days ago. He’s flattered to deceive with his finishing effort in the past so he was no certainty to win but would surely have gone very close. Quick turnaround but provided his confidence hasn’t been dented by that mishap should give his backers a decent run for their money at what look decent odds.
Betting Advice:
Leopardstown
12:45 – 1pt win – Glan – 6/1 @ Bet365 and 0.5pts win – Stand Up Lucy – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:20 – 0.5pts each way – Beacon Edge – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
2:25 – 1pt win – Fakir D’alene – 9/1 @ Bet365 & 0.5pts win – Ten Ten – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – Rebel Gold – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – 0.5pts each way – Magic Tricks – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) & 0.5pts each way – Surprise Package – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) & 0.5pts win – Get My Drift – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Musselburgh
2:40 – 1pt win – Coastal World – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:15 – 1pt win – Lucky Flight – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John