Hi all,
It’s the end of a long and ultimately disappointing week. Monday & Tuesday were profitable, but it went downhill from then onwards. In truth I tended to overthink things for much last week and just seemed to get the going and the draw wrong.
Plenty of my selections ran well, particularly early in the week. Sadly, there were too many poor picks for my liking.
Goodwood may be over for another 12 months but there’s a final day of racing at the Galway Festival.
Haydock is due to stage another leg of the Sky Bet Sunday Series, but the card must survive a precautionary 7am morning inspection to see if it can go ahead.
I’m hoping to finish the week on a winning note, and I have some fancies at Galway. Plus, I take a quick look at the Haydock card for anyone thinking of having a bet on that card.
Deauville
The best race on Sunday is the Group 1 Arc Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville (3:25). It doesn’t look the strong of renewals of the race and the one I like most is Rohann even though the 5-year-old has been out of sorts on four starts this season. A dual Wokingham Handicap winner at Royal Ascot he finished a 1 length 4th of 14 to Highfield Princess in last year’s race and if he could bounce back to that level of form, he would win this.
Galway
3:30 – Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Chase – 2m 2f
Hubrisko ran well at Galway over hurdles last year and has shaped on three starts of fences like he’ll do better over the larger obstacles. Handicap chase debut off a tough looking mark of 137 but the 6-year-old could be capable of defying it and going on to better things. His stablemate Mt Leinster, a useful novice chase two seasons back, only had two starts last season running poorly on the last of them at Fairyhouse in January. Had a spin on the flat here two days ago and must be considered.
Vado Forte won this corresponding race 12 months ago when trained by Gordon Elliott. Has yet to win on five starts for Ross O’Sullivan but has run some decent races including when a 6 ¾ length 3rd of 8 at Punchestown 57 days ago. Now 6lb lower than for last year’s success and has each way claims.
Hubrisko makes the market now he could be well handicapped and win this easy but I’m going for Vado Forte each way and a saver on the favorites stablemate Mt Leinster.
4:00 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Ahonoora” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 7f
Current Option is seeking a fourth successive win in the Galway feature and can races off his lower mark than for his previous three wins. Had a fair run here five days ago and looks set for another big run. His trainer Adrian McGuinness saddles 7 of the 16 declared runners. You can’t rule out any of them, but Current Option is likely to be the stable pick.
English challenger On A Session has finished runner-up for the last two seasons and another big run can be expected from the 7-year-old given his form at the venue.
Percy’s Lad is another English trained challenger. The 5-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a 3 ¼ length 7th of 29 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot. This has seemingly been his traget all season and could have a handy draw in stall 6.
Dunum won a C&D handicap here 12 months ago and started this season in even better form winning a Limerick handicap in April and a short head 2nd of 20 at the Curragh. Bounced back from a poor run in the Royal Hunt Cup when a length 3rd of 18 here over 1 ½ furlong further on Tuesday. The drop back to 7f on soft ground shouldn’t be an inconvenience for the 5-year-old. Stall 17 isn’t the best, but another big run looks likely, and I think he can go close.
Soaring Monarch is another dropping back in trip after finishing a 3 length 11th of 18 here on Tuesday (Dunum third). A winner at last year’s festival over 1m ½ f this trip might be on the short side for the 6-year-old but the visor he wore for the first time when winning here last year is reapplied and trainer Peter Fahey has already had four winners here this week.
I’m taking on the obvious one in Current Option with Dunum and Soaring Monarch.
Haydock
As we don’t know if they’ll race at Haydock, I haven’t gone into the card in any detail but here are a few pointers.
5:15 – Derry Lad is in line for winning £100,000 bonus for winning three races at the Sunday Series. The 5-year-old has improved to win at Hamilton (1m 3f) & Pontefract (1m 4f) and although he drops back to 2f in trip here the testing ground will bring his stamina in to play.
Auld Toon Loon improved to win a Chester handicap on heavy ground 22 days ago. A 4lb rise isn’t harsh and on similar ground here looks sure to go close.
Wind Your Neck In twice a winner on soft ground as a juvenile, didn’t beat a rival on three start last season but was back to close to his best when a length 2nd of 11 at Sandown 10 days ago. The return to soft ground suited the 4-year-old last time and he could prove to be the value play here.
5:45 – A disappointing week at Goodwood for the Charlie Johnson yard. However, they have a good chance of winning here with Paladin. The juvenile battled on to win a C&D novice on soft ground last time and looks capable of following up on nursery debut.
6:15 – Raimunda had no issues with heavy ground when winning a C&D novice 15 days ago. The filly takes on more experienced rivals today but looks on a workable mark on handicap debut and is capable of further improvement.
6:45 – Cinnodin gained his fourth success of an already productive 2023 when winning at Newbury (2m) 10 days ago. The step up in trip really suited the 3-year-old last time and he looks a progressive staying handicapper. Up 4lb and in a better race today but should go well.
Chester
There’s a Listed action at Chester this afternoon with the Queensferry Stakes (3:38) the highlight of a seven race card.
3:38 – Last year’s Gimcrack winner Noble Style who started this season off in the 2,000 Guineas hasn’t reached his high class juvenile form back down to 6f on his last two starts. He’s been gelded since finishing a 7 ½ lengths 9th of 13 to Shaquille in Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and the first time cheekpieces he wore last time are replaced by blinkers. It’s possible that he hasn’t trained on from two to three and soft ground would also be a worry. At 2/1 he’s worth taking on
I like the outsider of the field Paws For Thought. A three time course winner, he’s taken his form to a new level since having wind surgery, winning his last three starts in handicap company. Has a bit to find with all his five rivals on Official Ratings but he ticks the boxes marked course, distance and going and few of his rivals come into the race in as good a form as he does.
Betting Advice:
Deauville
3:25 – Rohaan – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Bet365
Galway
3:30 – Vado Forte – 1pt each way – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Mt Leinster – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:00 – Dunum – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Soaring Monarch – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Chester
3:38 – Paws For Thought – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
Haydock
5:15 – Wind Your Neck In – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John