Hi all,
It’s been a great two months with over 80pts profit since June 25th but Saturday was truly dreadful. I can only apologize for what was poor days analysis, never mind the tipping, which made for grim viewing.
I was tempted to pull up sticks for the week after yesterday’s showing but there’s a few good races on Sunday at Goodwood and nice-looking Class 2 handicap at Yarmouth to get stuck in. So, there is still a chance we can end the week on a profitable note.
The Group 3 Supreme Stakes (4.00) is Sunday’s feature race and completes three days of racing at Goodwood. There may only be six runners in the race but you can make some sort of case for all of them.
Goodwood
2:15 – tote.co.uk Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Atalanta’s Boy is 4-6 over C&D, including this race last year off 5lb lower and his only two poor performances have come in the Stewards Cup. Today’s smaller field will suit but the 6-year-old has got propensity to miss the start. If he gets off on level terms then he’s got a good chance.
Treacherous won the Stewards Cup consolation race over C&D last season, off 6lb lower. That was his second win over C&D, both on good to firm ground. Down the field in this year’s race on soft ground but he bounced back to his best when a short head 2nd of 14 in the Fitzdares Sprint Series Final at Windsor He’s been nudged up 3lb for that effort which makes life tougher but the cheekpieces are applied for the first time. Needs all the cards fall right but if they do, he can win.
2pts win – Treacherous – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Atalanta’s Boy – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:00 – Weatherbys Hamilton Supreme Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
There doesn’t look to be much in the way of pace which means Mehmento is likely to get an uncontested lead. The lack of pace probably won’t suit Onassis who normally races off the pace and may want an easier surface. Rhoscolyn is another who may prefer to get his toe in. He’s an improving 3-year-old though and goes well here having won a handicap over C&D in May and then put in a career best effort when runner-up in the Summer Mile here last time.
Double Or Bubble is lightly raced for her age and put in an excellent effort when dropping down to 6f to win a Listed race at Pontefract 14-days ago. No issues with the return to 7f and she’s 4-6 on good or quicker ground. There is plenty in the 4-year-old’s favour today and she must have a great chance.
Tactical is another suited by quick ground but he comes into the race on the back off a poor effort in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time. The first-time blinkers are applied today and if the headgear has the desired effect, he’s a contender.
Toro Strike is another who is very effective on a sound surface. A previous C&D winner, his form figures over 7f on good/good to firm ground are 311. The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a 3 ¼ length 6th of 8 in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes over C&D last time. The return to quicker ground is a positive and he’s likely to be ridden prominently so can’t be discounted.
2pts win – Double Or Bubble – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:35 – Chichester City Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Just Fine relished the drop back to 1m 2f when comfortably seeing off Barn Owl at Sandown (good to firm) last month. The runner-up won a valuable handicap at Beverley yesterday so the form looks solid enough. He’s been raised 8lb for that win but he’s progressive and capable of better.
Highland Rocker bounced back from a poor run in the London Gold Cup to finish a 4 ½ length 4th of 10 in a warm Newmarket Handicap last time. The form has worked out well. The winner has since gone on to win a Group 2 at Deauville, the second has won a Group 3 at Haydock and the third won a Class 2 handicap at Sandown last weekend. He can race off the same mark today and looks a big danger to Just Fine.
Sir Rumi will like the ground but doesn’t have the upside of Just Fine or Highland Rocker. Without Revenge hasn’t built on Newmarket win in May but he does get the addition of the first-time tongue tie today.
Mr Excellency improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning at Newmarket & Chepstow. Struggled when stepped up to a Class 2 handicap over C&D last time but it was good to soft and he got involved in an unsustainable pace duel out in front that day. Not sure he’s up to this class but he’s the only front runner among the five runners so should get the run of the race.
1pt win – Mr Excellency – 15/2 @ Bet365 or 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Yarmouth
2:05 – Moulton Nurseries Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Just the six have been declared to go to post and it’s another race where there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of pace.
Finest Sound had two of today’s rivals Dawaan and Spanish Archer behind when a ¾ length 3rd of 8 at Doncaster. He was better placed than those two in a slowly run race. That was his first run beyond an extended mile but the race was slowly run so he’s still must prove his stamina for 1m 2f. Dawaan ran his best race on grass when 4th of 20 in the John Smiths Cup at York two starts back but he remains 0-5 on turf and looks vulnerable if the race his steadily run again. The same remark applies to Spanish Archer who needs a strong pacer to chase but is now 3lb below his last winning mark.
Sky Defender can go forward and he seems at his best when he can get out in the front. Not been in the best of form of late and was very disappointing at Sandown last Saturday. Needs to bounce back but he’s now 5lb below his last winning mark.
Protected Guest has won the last two running’s of the race but he hasn’t beaten a rival on his last two starts. Needs a return to the venue and the first time cheekpieces to bring him back to his best. All five of his career wins have come in field sizes 8 or less so today’s small field is a positive though.
The City’s Phantom is lightly raced for a 4-year-old and is likely to be ridden prominently here. He made 2-2 over C&D when winning here on his seasonal reappearance and improved again when a head 2nd of 8, off 5lb higher at Leicester. Returned from a two month lay off but ran like something was amiss when last of six at Newmarket 22-days ago. His well being must be taken on trust after that performance but he looks on a competitive mark, if bouncing back.
1pt win – The City’s Phantom – 8/1 @ Bet365 or 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John