Hi all,
A good day on Saturday. Mind you it’s about time. Let’s hope we can continue it today. There’s something for both flat and jumps fans today. It’s the Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh and JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National at Limerick.
Curragh
3:40 – Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch – 2m
Willie Mullins could be set for another notable Cesarewitch double after Great White Shark’s win at Newmarket yesterday. He saddles last year’s winner Royal Illusion & Kaatskill Nap. Both have big chances but slight preference on soft ground for the former despite being 11lb higher than for last years easy win.
Emmett Mullins also saddles a couple of live contenders in Cape Gentlemen & Sneaky Getaway. Of the pair I like Cape Gentleman who made a very pleasing stable debut when finishing runner-up to Mount Leinster at Listowel 16-days ago. A winner when trained in France (good to soft) he’s lightly raced and makes his handicap debut off what could be a good mark.
Run For Mary is favourite after running Princess Zoe to 1 ¼ lengths at Galway last time. Ground should be fine for the 6-year-old and promising apprentice Sam Ewing takes off a valuable 7lb. Plenty to like about her chance apart from the price.
King’s Vow handles testing ground and stays well. The 4-year-old looked to have put in an improved effort on turf when 4th of 13 at Killarney 53-days ago. Strong at the finish that day and the return to 2m will suit, twice a winner over the distance on the all-weather.
Shoshone Warrior was a winner of Leopardstown maiden back in July but put in career best effort when 2nd of 18 in the valuable ‘Petingo’ Handicap 29-days ago. Strong at the finish over 1m 5f that day and could improve further for the step up in trip. One poor run this season did come on soft ground at Navan which is a slight worry on today’s going. Still he represents powerful connections and in Aidan O’Brien & Colin Keane.
Verdict: A very tricky race. Royal Illusion must have a great chance of back to back wins in the race but her price has now gone. Likewise, the claims of Run To Mary are clear for all to see. Cape Gentlemen has scope for more improvement now going handicapping. King’s Vow has each way claims returning to 2m. Shoshone Warrior is an improving 3-year-old but is drifting like a dog on raft probably due to fears over the soft ground.
1pt each way – King’s Vow – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – Shoshone Warrior – 11/1 @ William Hill
Limerick
4:00 – JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m
A tricky renewal. You have runners, like Roaring Bull making their seasonal return and there’s others like Portmore Lough who come into the race in poor form.
Apart from one horse ante post favourite Walk Away. You can hardly say there are many horses ahead of their present marks.
Walk Away has yet to win any of his three starts over fences but came up against some decent novice last season, including finishing 2nd of 17 to Faugheen on his chasing debut. First run since January but seems to go well fresh. Handicap debut off 136 could be lenient for the 7-year-old.
Doctor Duffy had had a good summer and continued his good form when third in the Kerry National. Davy Russell takes over in the saddle but he surely would prefer better ground than he’s likely to get here.
Moyhenna a previous course winner, just failed to overhaul Cabaret Queen in the Kerry National, beaten a nose. Up 4lb, for that effort makes life tougher, but not insurmountable. It was a career best from the 8-year-old who bounced back from a poor 2019-20 season. Can she build on that performance here Three of the last 22 winners of the race had their last start in the Kerry National.
Gordon Elliott saddled the winner of this in 2016 with Tiger Roll. He has two runners today in Aforementioned & Roaring Bull. The former found plenty for pressure when winning a 3m Beginners Chase at Clonmel last time. Handicap chase debut, has no weight to carry and should go well. However, his winning form has come on a sounder surface that he faces here.
Roaring Bull got up in the final strides to win the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas, off 6lb lower. Makes his seasonal return here. Now he may need the run but it’s worth noting he’s 3 wins from 4 runs when returning from a 121+day break. He’s a 7-year-old like his stablemate so remains a young horse and I think he can go well here.
The trainer of Internal Transfer likes to target the race and this fellow was the beaten favourite in this 12 months ago. He comes into this race having fallen in the Kerry National. Not an ideal prep for this but if he wins It wouldn’t be a total surprise.
Chavi Artist was runner-up to Doctor Duffy in the Mayo National on his last run. He’s entitled to finish a lot closer to that one today and he’s got winning form on soft ground. Not the most fluent of jumpers which will be tested here but the 7-year-old should be capable of winning a handicap off his present mark.
Verdict: Walk Away could be well in on his handicap debut. Roaring Bulll capable of bold run on his seasonal return. If Moyhenna can back up her recent Kerry National effort then she won’t be far away.
1pt each way – Roaring Bull – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Moyhenna – 13/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John