Hi all,
A small profit on the day despite just the one winner courtesy of Moonlighter at Sandown and three each way selections. Slightly kicking myself for not putting up Deise Aba but apart from that that I did as well as I could. I highlighted most of the winners in the race previews which is always a plus because it at least I know I’m reading the races correctly.
It’s an eight-race card at Leopardstown today for day two of the Dublin Racing Festival. It’s also day two of the Scottish Cheltenham Trials Weekend at Musselburgh. Not sure it will survive the freezing weather. It was ‘Baltic’ like conditions at the course on Saturday and set to be even colder today. They will hold a morning inspection to see if racing can go head. With frost and snow forecast it must be odds against they race.
I have had looks at seven of the eight races at Leopardstown and one from Musselburgh.
Leopardstown
1:10 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 2f
Willie Mullins six mares for this handicap hurdle named in honour of his late father Paddy. Paul Townend has opted for last time course winner and race favourite Dysart Diamond. The mare continued her improvement when winning here at the Christmas Meeting. She steps up 2f in trip today and has been raised 11lb for that win. The 6-year-old should stay and given she’s only had three starts over hurdles could rate higher yet.
There was plenty to like about Rescue Package’s win over Belfast Banter at Punchestown (soft/heavy) 85-days ago. The mare has been raised 7lb for that win which makes life difficult but her absence from that track need not be a negative given both her hurdle wins have come of 69+day layoffs. Needs to find a few lbs of improvement to beat the favourite but provide they go a good gallop she may find it.
Verdict: At the prices I can let Dysart Diamond win. Preference would be for Rescue Package each way.
1pt each way – Rescue Package – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying five places 1/5 odds)
1:40 – Tattersalls Ireland Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m
Sadly, Zanahiyr and French Aseel, (now with Willie Mullins) don’t run but Quilixios does. Willie Mullins saddles three of the six runners: Youmdor, Ha D’or & Saint Sam. Quilixios sets the standard and will be hard to beat, despite being off the track for 99-days.
All three of the Mullins look open to improvement. As is the Joseph O’Brien trained Busselton who finished runner-up to Quilixios stablemate Zanahiyr on his first start for the yard over C&D at Christmas, had Ha D’or & Saint Sam back in third and fourth respectively that day. Busselton bids to give his trainer a third successive win the race.
2:10 – Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m
Appreciate It was a smart bumper performer, finishing runner-up in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last season. He’s made a smooth transition to hurdling winning both his starts, including in a Grade 1 over C&D last time. He’s just 5/2 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and will take plenty of beating here.
Master McShee also won over C&D last time. Runner up to the favourite on his hurdle debut he’s since gone onto win a Cork maiden hurdle and last time improved further to win a twenty-runner handicap hurdle. The 7-year-old deserves his chance in Graded company and has each-way claims for a small yard.
Ballyadam was a disappointing 4th behind Appreciate It, here last time but prior to that had looked a smart novice hurdling prospect winning both his previous starts. He’s surely better than he was able show last time and the trainer does have his runners in better form now.
Irascible, a winner on his hurdle debut at Clonmel improved on that effort when finishing runner-up to Appreciate It last time. The 6-year-old has got nine lengths to find with the winner but is open to improvement and would have each-way claims again.
2:40 – William Fry Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 3m
Another competitive handicap with 22 declared to go to post.
Damalisque comfortably beat nineteen rivals in Navan handicap hurdle (2m 4f) 9-days ago. He’s up 12lb for that win but such was his victory that shouldn’t stop him winning this, provided this race doesn’t come to quick. The step up to 3m could bring out further progress and he’s a worthy favourite.
Pure Genius like the favourite owned by J P McManus. The 6-year-old put in a much-improved effort when winning a Punchestown maiden hurdle on his first run at 3m. Handicap debut off a workable mark of 127 with the capable Simon Torrens taking off a further 5lb.
Koshari defied an 875-day absence winning a Cork handicap hurdle (2m 4f) 36-days ago. The 9-year-old strong at the finish that day and should stay 3m. Up 9lb for that success but open to more improvement.
Dandy Mag & Unexpected Depth were first and third in a Pertemps Series Qualifier over C&D at Christmas. Dandy Mag came from of the pace to win and showed he stays 3m well. Up 8lb and should go well again but Paul Townend opts for Koshari today. Unexpected Depth has returned from 431-day absence winning a 3m handicap hurdle at Punchestown in December before finishing third over C&D. Gets a handy 5lb pull with Dandy Mag for 2 ¾ lengths.
Front Assault, trained by Gordon Elliott, broke his maiden tag over hurdles at the fourth attempt when winning a rated novice hurdle at Thurles (2m 7 ½ f) 49-days ago. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are now replaced by the first-time blinkers. The 6-year-old needs to find a bit more on his handicap debut but’s possible he will in the new headgear.
Verdict: Interesting that Paul Townend opts for Koshari rather than recent C&D winner Dandy Mag. The lightly raced Damalisque could well progress further to defy his 12lb rise in the weights. Unexpected Depth has solid looking claims after his recent third placed effort behind Dandy Mag over C&D. Front Assault makes his handicap debut and gets the first-time blinkers and should be far away as should Pure Genius.
1pt win – Frontal Assault – 10/1 @ Coral
1pt win – Unexpected Depth – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes
1pt win – Pure Genius – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:10 – Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5f
Monkish got the better of Latest Exhibition in the 3m Grade 1 Novices’ Chase over Christmas as he did in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham last season. Despite the drop back in distance, on the likely testing ground I think Monkfish will come out on top again.
I’m not sure if Andy Dufresne will take his place in the line-up. The 7-year-old wasn’t too far behind the two principals over hurdles and has won both his two starts over the larger obstacles so far. Both wins have come over shorter but he did win over 2m 4f over hurdles and ran like he will improve for further when winning a Grade 3 at Navan (2m 1f) last time.
It’s hard to look beyond Monkfish here but Andy Dufresne is an interesting contender but not enough to back here.
3:40 – Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1) – 3m
Despite the race cutting up to just five runners, just 5lb separates the top four on Official Ratings.
Last year’s winner Delta Work failed to complete in the Savills Chase at the track over Christmas and needs to put that mishap behind him. Trainer Gordon Elliott could also The Storyteller who won the Grade 1 at Down Royal in the autumn. Delta Work looks the most likely of his pair although he might not want the ground too testing
Ante post favourite Minella Indo also fell in the Savills Chase and is another on a retrieval mission. No problem with soft ground for the 8-year-old.
Kemboy & Melon finished second and third in the Savills Chase and still have entries. The pair give champion trainer a Willie Mullins a strong hand in the race. Kemboy could get an uncontested lead in front and Melon showed last time that he gets 3m.
Verdict: If there is a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in the field its likely to be Minella Indo. As far as today’s race it’s hard to rule out the four other winners. Both Delta Work & Kemboy go well at the track, in the latter’s case this is likely his Gold Cup. Melon wouldn’t be winning out of turn and at the prices is the selection
1pt win – Melon – 9/2 @ Bet365
4:10 – Gaelic Plant Hire Leopardstown Handicap Chase – 2m 5 ½ f
Another maximum field of 22 for the third of three competitive handicaps on today’s card. I have nine on my race shortlist.
Crossed My Mind bids for the hat trick after handicap chase wins at Thurles and Navan. He’s been raised 10lb for the last of those wins but the 9-year-old has only had six starts over fences so could be open to more progress.
Treacysenniscorthy made all to win the 3m handicap hurdle on this card 12 months ago and took advantage of good mark over fences when winning at Cork 36-days ago. The handicapper was impressed with 9-year-old’s performance as he put him up 12lb. As he showed last time, he’s a good horse from the front but may not be able to dominate today.
Farclas won the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2018. The 7-year-old made a bright start to his chasing career when winning all his three starts in May/June 2019. Returned from 529-day lay off to finish 5th of 17 in a hot handicap at Punchestown back in November. Before finishing 3rd of 22 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over 3m here at Christmas. Up 1lb but can win a decent pot.
Minella Times a winner at Listowel on his seasonal return and improved on that effort when finishing one place in front of Farclas in the Paddy Power. He’s up another 4lb and could struggle to confirm that form with Farclas.
Besides Minella Times. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has another couple of contenders in Trainwreck & Myth Buster. Trainwreck was only beaten a head in this race last year, off 2lb lower. He improved markedly on his season return when fourth in the Paddy Power last time. Given his liking for the track he can’t be ruled out despite being 0-10 over the larger obstacles. Myth Buster finished one placed behind Trainwreck in the Paddy Power. He finished just one place and 3 ½ lengths in a beginners’’ chase over C&D last season. He remains a maiden under rules but can’t be totally dismissed back down in distance.
Off You Go won the Ladbroke Hurdle here twice in 2018/2019, He’s 0-7 since going chasing but the 8-year-old shaped well on his first two starts in handicap chase company before falling at the 4th at Limerick over Christmas. Needs to jump better than he has done on his last two starts though but looks up to winning a race like this.
The Long Mile won the Limerick race which Off You Go fell in. He’s been hiked 12lb in a better race which makes life tougher but he’s going the right way and the 7-year-old’s form figures since going handicap chasing are 111F1. Probably wouldn’t want the ground to dry before post time as his best three RPR’s have come with heavy in the going description.
Scoir Mear finished third behind The Long Mile at Limerick. The 11-year-old is 7lb higher than when winning at Wexford (soft/heavy) on October but can’t be ruled out with inform Simon Torrens taking off 5lb.
The reserves Uisce Beatha & At The Acorn would have be respected if they got a run. Uisce Beatha caused a 40/1 shock when winning a C&D handicap chase on Boxing Day. He’s up 8lb but can go well if not inconvenienced by the soft ground. At The Acorn would be a lively contender if he got in. The 7-year-old has struggled on all three starts this season but they were over hurdles. This would be his first run over fences since finishing 6th of 24 in this race 12 months ago. He was sent off the 9/2 favourite that day and was going well and still in contention when badly hampered by a faller at the final fence (normal two out). He races off 1lb lower than last year and looks like he’s a competitive handicap chase mark.
Verdict: Arguably the most competitive race of the two days. At the Acorn isn’t likely to get in but would be top of the shortlist if he did.
Of You Go is weighted to go close but his jumping remains a concern in a race like this. Treacysenniscorthy is good from the front as he showed here 12 months ago and last time at Cork. Trainwreck, Myth Buster & Minella Tines give Henry De Bromhead strong hand in the race. Minella Times is consistent but Trainwreck will be suited by the drop back to 2m 5f and has each way claims again. Crossed My Mind is sure to be popular after his Navan success. Farclas looks the sort trainer Gordon Elliott can get a big pot out of this season.
1pt win – Farclas – 7/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Treacysenniscorthy – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt each way – Trainwreck – 22/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Musselburgh
Just the one race at Musselburgh has interested me and it’s the best race on the card.
3:25 – bet365 Scottish Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2) – 1m 7 1/2 f
Third Time Lucki made it 3-4 since going hurdling when winning at Kempton 43-days ago. He looks a worthy favourite on ratings.
Bareback Jack a winning Irish pointer is 2-2 since hurdling. He’s open to further improvement and won over C&D on his hurdle debut.
Irish raider Belfast Banter was a good 5th behind Not So Sleepy in a valuable Ascot handicap hurdle. Richard Johnson is an eyecatching jockey booking but 6-year-old is only 1-12 over hurdles and is vulnerable to any improvers in the field.
If there is one who can beat the favourite it could be Tommy’s Oscar. The 6-year-old made it 3-3 when winning a comfortably winning a C&D handicap hurdle (soft) 16-days ago. He’s a good prospect and although he has 11lb to find on Official Ratings with Third Time Lucki he’s a hurdler on an upward curve who probably hasn’t stopped improving just yet. Trainer Anne Hamilton has a 25%-win strike rate with her last time out winners.
Verdict: The clear form choice is favourite Third Time Lucki. Belfast Banter is vulnerable from a win perspective but has place claims. Both Bareback Jack and Tommy’s Oscar have improving profiles with the latter looking the each-way alternative to the favourite.
1pt each way – Tommy’s Oscar – 8/1 @Bet365
Cheers
John