Hi all,
Hopefully Punchestown & Exeter can race on Sunday. Punchestown should be ok but Exeter still must survive a morning inspection. Parts of the Exeter track remained frozen yesterday after five days freezing weather despite the rise in temperature.
Sunday is the new Saturday as far as I’m concerned and Monday is the new Sunday so here we go.
The feature race of a seven-race card at Punchestown is the marathon Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (4:30).
Punchestown
3:30 – Shar Whats Therush came from off the pace to finish 3rd of 14 at Fairyhouse over 2m 7f 29-days ago. It was a career best on RPR’s from the 8-year-old and today’s extra furlong should suit. Looks to have a favourites chance.
Smiths Girl was another who posted a career best on her last start. The mare is less experienced than most in the field, having just the had the five starts. Stamina for today’s 3m must be proven but she could be suited by it and looks capable of more improvement.
1pt win – Smiths Girl – 8/1 @ Bet365
4:30 – Punchestown Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4f
Five of the 18 declared runners are trained by Gordon Elliott and three by Joseph O’Brien.
Of the Elliott five the pair that interest me most are Dounkios & Roaring Bull. The first named won this race off 7lb higher two years ago. He’s been regressive since that win but does get the first time cheekpieces here and if they were to see a bounce back to form, he would be well handicapped. Jack Kennedy opts for last seasons Paddy Power Handicap Chase winner Roaring Bull who finished runner-up in the Troytown Handicap in November. The 8-year-old hasn’t really built on that performance on three subsequent runs though.
Joseph O’Brien saddles Smoking Gun, Thermistocles & High Sparrow. All three have claims. Hugo Morgan takes off a valuable 5lb off Smoking Gun but he did pull up in the Thyestes Handicap Chase last time and may not want this stamina test. Thermistocles looks the best of his trio. The 9-year-old won at 3m over hurdles and has only had three starts over fences, winning a beginners’ chase at Thurles back in March. One run this season came when 5th of 17 over hurdles at Naas 14-days ago which should have put him spot fitness wise.
Midnight Maestro was an impressive winner at Leopardstown over Christmas that followed on from a really encouraging run at Fairyhouse and the move to Enda Bolger yard, appears to have done the trick. He’s been raised 9lb for his last win but can improve for the step up to 3m 4f. Trainer seems unsure about the trip on heavy ground which is understandable. The choice of Mark Walsh who will be riding at his minimum weight of 10-2.
The Big Dog will be ridden by top amateur Jamie Codd. He’s got some decent form around Punchestown and his novice chase form this season gives him a good chance. A mark of 136 is no gift for his handicap chase debut if he improves for the step up in trip won’t be far away.
Nick Lost returned from a 668-day absence to finish 3rd of 12 at Thurles 18-days ago. He can improve for that run but the ‘bounce factor’ could come into play and I’m not sure he wants the ground as testing as it’s likely to be here.
Screaming Colours has very solid handicap chase around three miles here on his last two starts. He steps up in trip here but shapes like a marathon trip in the mud will suit. Needs to jump better than he did here last time though.
Discordantly was only 9/1 for the Thyestes but only got as far as the second where he unseated his rider. Respected off his present mark but the form of the Jessica Harrington yard is a concern.
Se Mo Laoch has a good record at Punchestown, having won twice over fences at the venue. The 1—year-old wasn’t disgraced when 6th in last seasons Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter and made a promising return to action over hurdles when 2nd of 18 here in December. The first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces and he won when first tried in cheekpieces. Has a nice light weight here and can go well.
Verdict: Previous race winner Dounkios has looked regressive but is temptingly handicapped if the first time cheekpieces work. Midnight Maestro and The Big Dog deserve their positions at the head of the betting with a slight preference for the former who will win or finish well down the field. Se Mo Laoch has solid form at the track and has a good chance off a light weight. Whilst the unexposed Thermistocles could be the pick of the Joseph O’Brien trio.
1pt win – Midnight Maestro – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Se Mo Laoch – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Exeter
I have had look at two of the competitive handicaps at Exeter.
3:40 – Racing TV On Sky 426 Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) – 3m
Eleven have been declared for this first qualifiers of the Veterans Chase series.
Yaltari third in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novice Chase at Ascot two seasons ago has dropped to a mark 12lb lower than for that performance. He’s improved with each start this season and last time out finished 4th off 11 at Ascot 22-days ago. A reproduction of his best would make the 10-year-old hard to beat in his first veterans’ chase.
Bobo Mac finished third to subsequent Welsh Grand National winner Secret Reprieve two starts back and was disgraced when 6th of 18 in the Welsh Grand National last time. He made a mistake three out that day and would have probably have challenged for the places but for that error.
Late Romantic won at Haydock two starts back and ran well to finish 5th of 13 in the Classic Chase at Warwick last month. This is easier but he is 5lb higher than for his last win.
West Approach isn’t the most consistent but he’s got winning chase form at Exeter & Cheltenham and he did run Frodon to 1 ½ lengths at Cheltenham back in October. Two disappointing runs have followed but the Colin Tizzard yard is in better form now and the 11-year-old can’t be totally dismissed if on a going day.
4:10 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 2m 7f
Last year’s surprise Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar carries top-weight here on his first start since a wind-op. He’s been well beaten on both starts this season but if the wind-op has had the desired effect he can’t be ruled out.
Brinkley was impressive and strong at the finish when winning on his second start in handicap company at Wincanton 24-days ago. That win came over an extended 2m 5f but he should improve for the step up to 3m. Yard going through a quiet spell but the 6-year-old must be on high on the shortlist.
Southfield Harvest won a 3m maiden hurdle at Ludlow (soft) 12 months ago and ran well when runner-up in a Pertemps qualifier at Wincanton last time. Unexposed in handicap company and the 7-year-old is open to further improvement back over 3m.
Ask Dillion has been running well in soft ground staying handicaps on his last three starts but the 8-year-old has gone up 5lb for not winning.
Does He Know won a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham two starts back but the ran out in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle 47-days ago. Shapes like 3m will suit for his handicap debut and gets the first-time hood here which doesn’t look a positive nor does very testing ground.
Champagne Platinum didn’t look a natural on his four starts over fences last season and looked a lot happier when 3rd of 12 at Newbury over hurdles on his seasonal return in November. Three miles should suit the 7-year-old and he’s a contender for sure.
Agrapart isn’t as good as good as he used to be but the 2018 Cleeve Hurdle winner wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 12 at Cheltenham 65-days ago. Soft ground and a strong pace will suit the 10-year-old who has claims.
Palmers Hill disappointed on his chase debut at Taunton 66-days ago. Prior to that the 8-year-old had returned from 461-day break to finish a neck 2nd of 17 at Kempton last February. Not the easiest to keep sound but a big field suits and he’s only had five runs over hurdles. Might be better on a slightly sounder surface but Kevin Brogan takes off a handy 5lb and he needs to run well to get into the final.
Tommy Rapper won over fences first time up last season and can go well fresh. Ran well to get within 4 ½ lengths of stablemate Aux Ptits Soins in a valuable 3m handicap hurdle at Aintree in April 2019. He relished the mud over hurdles and he hasn’t had many runs beyond 2m 5 ½ f.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance here. Lisnagar Oscar is the Grade 1 winner running in a handicap but it won’t be easy to give weight away to unexposed rivals like Champagne Platinum, Palmers Hill, Southfield Harvest and Brinkley.
1pt win – Champagne Platinum – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Palmers Hill – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John