Hi all,
Not the most auspicious of starts to the festive period but as the saying goes its marathon not a sprint.
Chepstow’s Welsh Grand National Meeting has been abandoned due to waterlogging which is a blow as i had a few selections for there. And now Wetherby has to survive a morning inspection.
Kempton
3:05 – Erik Le Rouge’s form figures at Kempton are 1114. Really soft ground and stamina 3m are bit of unknown but he’s had a wind-op since falling in the Badger Beers Trophy at Wincanton last time which could help him stay the distance. Can’t be discounted at track he goes well at.
The Kings Writ jumped well out in front and only found one to go when runner-up at Wincanton in January off today’s mark. Had a spin over hurdles on his first run since a wind-op when 3rd of 12 at Chepstow 22-days and should be spot on fitness wise today. His prominent style of running should see him go well here.
The form of Cape Du Nord’s Newbury win over Canelo has been boosted with that one going onto win the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby yesterday. Up 10lb for that decisive win but capable of better and interestingly get’s the first time cheekpieces today. Not sure hold up tactics will be seen to best effect.
Royale Pagaille made a winning return to action when winning a Haydock novice chase (heavy) 25-days ago. Goes handicapping for the first time over 3m off what looks a competitive mark and shaped last time like he needed further than 2m 5 ½.
Given the present form of the Emma Lavelle stable it would be unwise to rule out Manofthemountain bouncing back from a poor run at Cheltenham back in October. Likely his chance depends on the ground staying good to soft rather than easing further.
1pt each way – The Kings Writ – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Erick Le Rouge – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)
3:40 – Useful novice hurdler Hang In There shaped much better for a return to prominent riding tactics when 6th of 12 at Newbury last time. He probably didn’t stay 2m 4 ½ f that day and the return to 2m here should suit better.
Magic Dancer is on a losing run that goes back to April 2018 but is handicapped to go close on the best of last years form.
Torigni is a bit of an unknown quantity. A winner in France in June 2019. Returned from a 515-day break to finish a promising 3rd of 9 to subsequent Haydock winner Albert’s Back 43-days ago. Won’t be easy for a 4-year-old but he looks on a competitive enough mark if building on his Wetherby performance.
1pt win – Hang In There – 4/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Torigni – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Leopardstown
2:20 – Master McShee has the potential to be well handicapped off a mark of 132 for his handicap hurdle debut. Ran out an impressive winner of a Cork maiden hurdle last time had previously run the highly regarded Appreciate It to 2 ½ lengths on his hurdle debut at the same venue. That one runs in the in the Grade 1 novice hurdle (1:45). If it wasn’t for an unfashionable trainer/jockey Master McShee would likely be half the odds he is.
You Raised Me Up got his head in front at the fifth time of asking over hurdle when making a winning return to action in a Listowel maiden hurdle 95-days ago. The 7-year-old was a good 3rd of 22 over C&D on his only start in a handicap in February.
The Moyglass Flyer hasn’t been seen since winning this race 12 months ago off 9lb lower. Both he and stablemate Winner Takes Itall give owner J P McManus a strong hand in the race.
Another McManus runner who could go well at a price is Spruced Up. The mare probably needed her Navan return 49-days ago and is competitively handicapped on her best form of last season when winning a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle and finishing 4th of 27 here in February. Can’t be totally discounted with a useful conditional taking off a handy 7lb.
1pt win – Mister McShee – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Coral
1pt win – You Raised Me Up – 10/1 @ Bet365
2:55 – Apart from The Welsh Grand Nationa,l the Paddy Power Handicap Chase is the big betting race of the day.
Ten Ten a lightly raced 7-year-old, just the five starts over fences had a nice prep for this over hurdle’s last time and on his first start beyond 2m 4f looks open to improvement. Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb and he should give his backers a good run for their money.
Top weight Castlebawn West must be respected. He’s ground versatile and was staying on well into third, over 2m 3 ½ f in a valuable handicap chase at Punchestown last month. Will be sharper for that run and is high on the shortlist.
Captain CJ finished 3rd of 20 to Court Maid over 3m 5f last time. He’s got a decent handicap pot in him but probably needs the ground to ease considerably if he’s to win over 3m.
Interesting that Jack Kennedy has opted for Farclas who returned from a 522-day absence to finish two places behind Castlebawn West in the Punchestown race. Will be all the better for that run and if he stays 3m won’t be far away.
1pt each way – Castlebawn West – 12/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt each way – Ten Ten – 12/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Wetherby
2:10 – Marracudja was beaten a nose in this race two years ago and went one better 12 months ago, off 3lb lower. The 9-year-old hasn’t been at the level of form in four starts this season but ran better at Newbury last time. This year’s renewal looks tougher but he can run a big race.
Nuts Well has really improved this year winning at Kelso on his seasonal return before putting in a career best when winning the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last time. Up 4lb demands more from the top-weight but he’s won twice around here and despite the drop back to 1m 7f can’t be ruled out.
First Flow made it 5-9 over fences when beating Amoola Gold at Ascot on is seasonal reappearance. The more testing the ground the better he is and now the going has turned heavy looks the one to beat although he needs jump better than he did at Ascot.
Some Reign was beaten a short head over C&D last time. He’s in the form of his life but this is a much hotter race.
1pt win – Marracudja – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Bet365
Cheers
John