Hi all,
Hukum impressed when winning the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury on Saturday. Apart from Hukum there rest of the selections didn’t run well. It was a toss-up between Jahbath & Tempus in the mile handicap and sadly I went with the wrong one there.
Onto Sunday’s racing and I have had a look at a few races at Newbury & Ripon, as well as the Prix Jacques Marois at Deauville.
Let’s begin at Newbury.
Newbury
1:50 – Aweedram bounced back to something like his best when 2nd of 13 at Haydock last month. Best two RPR’s have come on soft ground so underfoot condition won’t hold any terrors for the 4-year-old should the going ease further. Can be a bit of a tricky ride but he’s well suited to a straight mile and is just 2lb higher than his last winning mark.
Confide is lightly raced 4-year-old, just the three starts. A good second at York last time and can race off the same mark here. Open to further improvement and won on good to soft on his racecourse debut in June.
Turntable bids for the hat trick after wins at Doncaster and latterly Newmarket. Up 6lb in a better race but he could still be on the upgrade and can’t be ruled out. Soft ground would be an unknown for the 4-year-old but sire Pivotal get’s more than his fair share of soft ground winners.
Verdict: The softer the ground the more I like the chance of the quirky Aweedram. If the ground dries out Turntable has good claims of the hat trick.
1pt win – Aweedram – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
1pt win – Turntable – 11/1 @Bet365
2:25 – Danyah a winner on soft on his 2-year-old debut and good to soft at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance 64-days ago. Up 10lb for that success but he’s got a nicely progressive profile and maybe best fresh. Takes on some exposed handicappers here and the 3-year-old could be up to defying his big rise in the weights. Impresser was at his best on good to soft or heavy ground last season. Disappointed when 6th of 8 on his on his seasonal return on good ground at Sandown 64-days ago. Has only had five start so there is scope for further progress and he should get his ground today. Has each way claims.
Verdict: Danyah could be best fresh and looks a solid favourite. The ease in the going can help produce a better performance from Impresser.
1pt win – Danyah – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Ripon
2:05 – Hortzader won this race 12 months ago and can race off the same mark today. A good third at Thirsk 18-days ago and the 5-year-old won’t be far away again. Hesslewood is 1 from 12 on grass but he’s been in good form since racings resumption and he showed that he handles Ripon’s undulations when 4th of 8 over 1m 2f last month. Drop back to a mile looks a positive and he could give Hortzader most to do.
Verdict: The drop to a mile should suit Hesslewood but hopefully Hortzader can make it back to back wins in the race.
1pt win – Hortzader – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
The big betting race of the weekend and plenty of the 20 declared runners have claims.
Motagally is suited quick ground. He’s 8lb higher than when winning over 5 ½ f at Bath 25-days ago. The second has since come out to win so the form of his Bath win looks solid. Has a good draw in 20 and if handles the track can go close!
Abate has won two of his five starts this season and didn’t get the best of luck in the run at Thirsk 7-days ago. A C&D winner last summer he’s got a nice light weight and has each way claims.
You can’t really argue with Kimifive’s position at the front end of the betting. He probably should be favourite, after his recent second in the Goodwood Stewards Cup. On the negative side he hasn’t won for 14 races.
Gunmetal won this race in 2018. The handicapper has started to cut him some slack and he was good third behind Staxton & Watchable over C&D 10-days ago. He gets a 6lb pull with Staxton for 2 ½ lengths and should get a closer today although drawn down the middle which is off putting.
Top-weight Dakota Gold has a touch of class. Runner-up in this race two years ago. He went one place better last year. Has found life tougher on his three starts this season but he’s back in handicap company and is just 3lb above his last winning mark. Might need the ground to ease a bit more to be seen at his best.
Tim Easterby saddles a couple of live contenders in Golden Apollo & Staxton. Golden Apollo won last years Ayr Silver Cup off 5lb lower. He seems to be hitting form at the right time and if he builds on recent York second won’t be far away from a good draw in stall 18. Staxton won over C&D 10-days ago. Up 4lb for that success but was a six-length 5th in this last year off 11lb higher and gets a 17lb pull with Dakota Gold this time around.
Verdict: Gunmetal is well handicapped but he’s drawn down the middle which probably isn’t the place to be. The Tim Easterby pair of Staxton & Golden Apollo are big contenders with the former well suited to C&D. Dakota Gold would be a big player, even under top-weight, if the ground was to ease. Abate has winning form over C&D and can run into the places.
1pt win – Staxton – 13/2 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – Golden Apollo – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Abate – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Deauville
2:50 – Prix Jacques le Marois (Group 1) – 1m
Despite the possibility of heavy ground this year’s renewal has the makings of one of the races of the season. Last year’s winner Romanised would have a good chance of back to back wins in the race if the ground dries out before post time.
Ground worse than soft is a big unknown for ante post favourite Palace Pier.
Circus Maximus is tough and consistent and he can normally be guaranteed to run his race. He’s a three-time Group 1 winner over a mile and found only Mohaather too good in the Sussex Stakes last time. Any significant ease in the ground brings him very much into contention.
Persian King won last year’s French 2000 Guineas and then finished runner-up in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby). Last month landed his second Group 1 the Prix d’Ispahan at Chantilly and has won a variety of going including heavy. We probably haven’t seen the best of him yet and his tactical speed makes him a dangerous opponent.
Alpine Star an impressive winner of the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Before going onto finish runner-up in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) last month. Her stamina will come into play if the ground is on the soft side and she can emulate hoof prints of her half-sister Alpha Centauri who won the race in 2018.
Verdict: It’s a fascinating race but not one to get involved in until you know how what the exact going is.
Cheers
John