Hi all,
I hoped you enjoyed yesterday’s preview. Here are my selections for Saturday’s racing.
Looking at the weather forecast both Wetherby and Ascot are set for a couple of hours of rain in mid-morning but it’s set to be a mainly dry and sunny afternoon at both tracks. Low sun anyone? Not sure how much rain either track will see, it could be 3mm or 4mm. I have proceeded on the basis that that it will be soft but not too testing ground at both tracks this afternoon.
My selections are from Wetherby, Ascot & Down Royal.
Wetherby
1:20 – I am going to take on favourite Guy here. Like the favourite Dandolo Du Gite is 1-1 over fences but this is his first start for 528-days. The step up to 2m 3 ½ f should be fine, he won over hurdles on soft and has won off a lay off in the past. Sam England has her horses in good form at present and her representative Well Smitten can go well. The 8-year-old is 2-4 since joining the yard last season. The last of those wins came over C&D back in March (soft). Perhaps even more crucially he’s got a good record fresh – 2-2 when racing between 121 & 365-days since his last start. This is a better race than last time but he can go close.
1pt win – Dandolo Du Gite – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes
1pt each way– Well Smitten – 10/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/4 odds)
3:20 – If, and it’s a big if Cyrname can replicate his Ascot form going left-handed he wins this. He’s also drifted out to a value price with Vinndication now favourite with most firms. Aye Right has each way claims but the big prices have now long gone. Despite the form of the Jedd O’Keeffe stable I’m going to take a chance with Sam Spinner who made it 3-3 over fences when winning a Grade 2 at Doncaster last December. He’s 3-4 when returning from a 121-day break and remains open to more improvement over the larger obstacles.
1pt win – Sam Spinner – 7/1 @ William Hill
Ascot
1:20 – Not a race to get to heavily involved in. There’s not much between Dorking Boy, Falco Blitz and Republican on hurdle ratings but there is a big difference in their prices. Republican a winner over hurdles at Taunton last season is bred for chasing and if the ground is soft, I think he can run into the places on his debut over the larger obstacles.
0.5pts each way – Republican – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
3:05 – Malaya’s C&D form makes her of interest but she’s 0-11 when returning from a 31+ day layoff. Hang In There is on a competitive mark but has questions to answer at present. It’s hard to look beyond likely improvers Kid Commando & Sebastopol. Both have won fresh in the past so there shouldn’t be any issues with fitness for their seasonal reappearances. Kid Commando makes his handicap hurdle debut and looks on a good mark. Form figures on soft are 121 so any further easing of the ground will suit. Yard among the winner. Sebastopol has already won two handicap hurdles but the 6-year-old looks open to a bit more improvement. Slight concern that trainer Tom Lacy has gone two weeks without a winner but apart from that he’s got solid claims.
1pt each way – Sebastopol – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
3:40 – Top -weight Black Corton was third in this race 12 months ago. He will be there or thereabouts but his consistency means he remains on a tough mark and is vulnerable to any improvers. Commanche Red is one who could be ahead of his mark. Last seasonhe beat Simply The Betts in a novices handicap chase at Kempton over Christmas. Yet to race beyond 2m 4 ½ f but is handicapped to win more races on his second season chasing. There are plenty of C&D winners in the field. If the Colin Tizzard yard was in better form, I would give Mister Malarky a decent chance, although he wouldn’t want the ground to soft. Militarian is just 1lb above his last winning mark over C&D and did win first time up last season. He’s got each way claims.
1pt win – Commanche Red – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
0.5pts each way – Militarian – 16/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Down Royal
1:50 – I doubt there is a more competitive race today than this 18-runner handicap hurdle. The market is headed by Getaway Gorgeous & Wolf Prince both have solid claims and the latter remains open to improvement on his handicap hurdle debut.
Drop The Anchor beat Getaway Gorgeous a short head at Listowel last time. He’s 2lb worse off today but the runner-up at race fitness on her side that day and I think he can confirm that form today. The 6-year-old jumped much better at Listowel than he had done last season and if he can cut out the errors, he can win more races off his revised mark.
Hearts Are Trumps can normally be relied on to give his running in these big field handicap hurdles. He was 4th of 14 in this race 12 months ago and finished runner-up in the Galway Hurdle in August. Finds winning hard but has place claims again.
1pt each way – Drop The Anchor – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:00 – I’m going to take on Easy Game & Samcro with Sizing Pottsie who gets weight from his main rivals here.
1pt win – Sizing Pottsie – 12/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John