Hi all,
There is a big upside to the lack of jumps racing. The next few weeks should at least see some competitive field sizes. Add in a potentially wet week with a month of rainfall falling in a couple of days and we could be looking at genuinely winter jumps ground come Boxing Day. Now that would be perfect or will the concern then switch from freezing tracks to waterlogged ones.
Lingfield and Chelmsford ride to the rescue of ITV4’s Saturday afternoon racing coverage. Sadly, the two highlights of the Lingfield card the talkSPORT Winter Oaks Trial Irish EBF Fillies’ Handicap (3:00) and the Listed BetUK Quebec Stakes (3:33) have attracted just six runners each.
It’s become a pain in the backside to spend so much time analyzing the form only to have the racing cancelled. Fingers crossed the weather won’t be a problem today, but you never know as we have seen in the last seven days.
I find in the run-up to Christmas that the form book can be thrown out of the window. When you’re looking at primarily Class 5 & 6 handicaps on the all-weather and given the shocking levels of prize money then these races are ripe for manipulation. The secret is to know which trainers are in the business of landing those Christmas bonuses.
ITV4 are covering five races from Lingfield. Three of them are Class 5 or Class 6 handicaps as are all three of the Chelmsford races. It’s bargain basement action and in truth if this was a normal Saturday, I wouldn’t even have looked at these races. However, It’s not a normal Saturday and I have picked my way through five of the eight races on ITV4.
Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Lingfield
1:15 – All three of Mick’s Spirit’s career successes have come over C&D. The latest of them off today’s mark in June. A solid enough 1 ½ lengths 2nd of 6 over C&D 5-days ago and won’t be far away again if in the same form.
2:25 – Pablo Prince a winner over C&D from 1lb lower in August looks the most solid option in a poor race after his 4 lengths 4th of 12 at Kempton 19-days ago.
3:00 – Queen Of Ipanema has won her last five starts and although the filly is up in class here she’s going the right way and is the one to beat.
Viola won this race last year when it was run at Southwell from 7lb lower. The mare ran well on turf last summer without winning. Wasn’t seen to best advantage when a 4 ½ lengths 8th of 12 ina Listed race here (1m 5f) 51-days ago. Capable of a good run but a slowly run race wouldn’t suit her.
Tahasun was back to winning ways here (1m 2f) last month and arguably produced a career best in the process. Now 3lb higher both career successes have come here including C&D and there was plenty to like about her attitude at the finish when prevailing last time.
3:33 – The best race of seven race card but sadly just six runners. Algiers looked to have slipped his field when going clear coming to the final furlong in a Listed race over C&D last month. He got knabbed on the line that day and looks a worthy short-priced favourite given it seems likely he won’t face much in the way of pace pressure.
Harrovian & Forest Of Dean were both returning from layoffs when third and fifth respectively in that race. It’s hard to see either reversing that form but Harrovian is the most likely of the pair.
If you’re looking to get the favourite beat it may pay to side Makinmedoit who produced am excellent turn of foot 1f out to win a Class 2 handicap over C&D 17-days ago. She has 12lb to find with Algiers on official ratings, but the filly is going the right way and we likely haven’t seen the best of her just yet.
Chelmsford
3:15 – All three of Jems Bond’s career wins have come at Newcastle and he doesn’t exactly come into the race in sparkling form. But I’m going to take a chance that he can bounce back to form on his Chelmsford debut. The 5-year-old has a handy low draw and the forecast strong pace is a plus for his drop back to 6f.
Betting Advice:
Lingfield
1:15 – Mick’s Spirit – 5/1 @ Bet365
2:25 – Pablo Prince – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Tahasun – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes
3:33 – Makinmedoit – 9/1 @ Bet365
Chelmsford
3:15 – Jems Bond – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Betfair Sportsbook.
Cheers
John