Hi all,
It’s all about juveniles at Newmarket with two Group 1’s on the final day of the Cambridgeshire Meeting. Plus, we also have one of the most competitive handicaps run during the flat season in the Cambridgeshire Handicap (3:40).
Arc Weekend gets underway at Longchamp with two Group 1’s the highlights of the card. Sumo Sam bids for a Group 1 success after winning Group 2’s at Goodwood and Doncaster in the Prix de Royallieu (3:33). Mind you she faces several useful rivals including Melo Melo.
Just six have been declared for the other Group 1 the marathon Prix Du Cadran (1:33) and it looks between a revitalised Trueshan and staying mare Emily Dickinson.
ITV Racing are covering four races from Newmarket and one each from Chester & Haydock. Given the prize money on offer for the Chester race it’s disappointing the Class 2 handicap has only attracted nine runners and not a particularly strong field either.
Newmarket
1:50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Capulet sets a high form standard after his ½ length 2nd of 7 to stablemate Diego Velazquez in a Group 2 at Leopardstown (1m) three weeks ago. He’s open to further improvement on just his third career start and a worthy enough favourite.
Al Musmak relished the quick ground when winning a Haydock Listed race (1m) 21 days ago. Like the favourite he’s capable of better and shouldn’t be far away.
Aablan won on his Newmarket racecourse debut in July and then improved again when winning a five runner Group 3 at Sandown earlier this month. The step up to mile should bring out further improvement and his yard couldn’t be in better form.
Ghostwriter is also unbeaten on two career starts. The latest of those successes came in a very good time for a juvenile at Haydock three weeks ago. The step up to mile will suit the colt who is going the eight way and shouldn’t be discounted.
At Vimeiro caught the eye on racecourse debut when a running on 5th of 10 at Doncaster two weeks ago. An expensively purchased colt (650,000Y) the son of Sea The Stars is bred to appreciate 1m 2f+ as 3-year-old. However, it’s interesting the connections throw him end here rather go for maiden.
Verdict: At the price’s I’m going with Ghostwriter but I wouldn’t put you off At Vimeiro at an each way price.
2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
A decent sized line-up of 13 fillies for this Group 1 contest. Super Sprint and Lowther Stakes winner Relief Rally heads the ante post betting, but she does face her toughest assignment so far.
Her nearest market rival is unbeaten French challenger Jasna’s Secret. She’s changed ownership since her Deauville success last month and couldn’t have been more impressive in victory last time. Christophe Soumillon stays loyal to her and comes here rather than riding at Longchamp which could be a tip in itself.
Porta Fortuna won the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot (good to firm) and then finished runner-up in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. Below par upped to 7f when 3rd of 9 in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last time. Return to 6f and quicker ground can see back to her Royal Ascot best.
Soprano was a 2 length 3rd to Porta Fortuna in the Albany Stakes. Not at that level of form stepped up to 7f on her next two starts. However, there was more to like about her 1 ¼ length 3rd of 12 in Group 3 at Salisbury 23 days ago. The drop back to 6f suited last time and she lost more lengths, with a bad start, than she was beaten. If he can break on level terms and if they go a decent gallop won’t be far away.
Verdict: Of the front two in the betting Relief Rally & Jasna’s Secret I prefer the latter but Soprano could beat both.
3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Nine have been declared for juvenile contest for the colts.
Vandeek has improved with each of his three starts winning at Nottingham maiden on his racecourse debut and following up in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. The expensive breeze-up purchase improved again last time when winning the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville. He’s yet to race on ground quicker than good to soft though but if he handles today’s quicker ground can add another Group 1 to his CV.
River Tiber landed the hat trick when beating 19 rivals in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Off for 9 weeks due to a slight set back before finishing a 2 ¼ length third in the Morny. Although he shaped like needed 7f last time. The likely quicker ground will suit him better than at Deauville and he might just have needed the run that day.
Task Force overcame some greenness to make it 2-2 when landing a Ripon Listed race last month. He’s got 17lb to find with Vandeek on official ratings so needs to have progressed plenty since his Ripon success but he’s capable of plenty of improvement and I think a big run should be forthcoming from the sponsor’s horse.
Verdict: Even though he’s unproven on quick ground Vandeek looks better value than River Tiber. Task Force is open to plenty of improvement and he’s the pick
3:35 – bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 1f
A maximum field of 35 for what’s traditionally one of the most competitive handicaps run during the flat season.
We do have a strong favourite in Greek Order. Greek Order comes into the race seeking the hat trick after successes at Sandown & Newbury. He’s 10lb higher than for his Newbury win but had plenty in hand that day and given the 3-year-old has only had five career starts probably hasn’t reached his class ceiling. He stays 1m 2f which is no bad thing and big field and a strongly run will enable him to settle. Given you probably need a horse that can run well off higher marks in the future you can see why Greek Order is strongly fancied and could be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap.
Dual Identity bounced back to form when winning at Sandown earlier this month. His effort in last year’s race, finishing third, was a good one from stall six and he finished well clear of the group that raced far side.
Astro King and Oviedo were first and second in a York handicap (1m 2 ½ f) last time. There shouldn’t be too much between the pair at the revised weights. However, Oviedo strikes me as a horse who could be well suited to a race like the Cambridgeshire and as 3-year-old might have the more upside. I liked Oviedo’s chances before I saw his was drawn in stall 1. Unless there’s some unforeseen drawn bias, I just can’t see him being able defy his low draw.
I fancied Liberty Lane for this after his recent Doncaster win on rain softened ground. A 4lb penalty for his Doncaster win shouldn’t hold him back but quick ground would be more of an unknown for the 3-year-old.
It’s interesting the Ryan Moore stays loyal to the quirky but talented Saga. The Royal runner showed his effectiveness over C&D when a head 2nd of 17 in handicap back in May. Drawn in stall 15 if Ryan can get him over to the larger group that will head stands side, he should get the cover he needs.
Last year’s winner Majestic is just 3lb higher than when winning 12 months ago. The 5-year-old hasn’t been at his best on his last two starts, both on good to soft, but quick ground suits and he’s nicely treated on his best form this spring on a sound surface.
Terwada looked progressive when winning at Nottingham and on handicap debut here on the other course. Couldn’t get competitive from a wide draw when a 4 length 7th of 19 in the valuable Clipper Logistics Handicap at York last time. The 3-year-old has only had five starts so could do better.
Verdict: Greek Order will take the beating. Except for bad luck in the run, I think he wins. If the ground was easier, I would be with Liberty Lane. Another I liked is Oviedo but stall 1 means he’s not one for me. Besides Greek Order I’m expecting another big run from last year’s winner Majestic who will like the ground. Saga isn’t consistent and looks a tricky ride but this race could really suit him.
Best of the rest on the Newmarket card
4:50 – Miss Information got off the mark at the fourth attempt when making all to win an Ascot novice 22 days ago. There was plenty to like about her success last time and she looks on a workable mark on nursery debut.
5:25 – Star Of Orion has been in consistent form this summer and must be respected once more but he can be slowly away, and this race might not be run to suit his hold up style.
Glenfinnan got off the mark for the season when winning at Ascot (7f) 22 days ago. A 6lb rise makes life tougher but quick ground suits and given he’s likely to be ridden prominently could get the race run to suit.
Modesty is the least exposed of the ten runners and looks fairly treated with Glenfinnan on their running at York last month. Could be a tricky ride but the first time cheekpieces might help and he could go well.
The switch to more prominent racing this summer has suited Darkness. He needs to revive after acouple of lesser runs and isn’t handicapped out of this given the race is likely to suit those ridden more prominently.
Chester
2:05 – Baaz bids for the five timer but she’s 9lb higher than when winning here (2m) 15 days ago and she’s up a couple of notches in class. Needs the step up to an extended 2m 2f to elicit the improvement needed to defy a career high mark.
Emiyn is a three time course winner and won last year’s race from a 7lb lower mark. Soft ground suits the 6-year-old and although he needs to produce a career best to win this time around it can’t be ruled out if he’s allowed to dictate the pace from stall 1.
Top weight Tashkhan has been given a chance by the handicapper. He’s a Group class stayer on good to soft/soft ground. The 5-year-old isn’t the easiest to win with but this is his best chance so far this season to gain a fourth career success.
Haydock
2:40 – Silky Wilkie is 2lb lower than when a short head 2nd of 20 in the Epsom Dash and has appealing claims with a 7lb apprentice booked. However, I have a slight preference for Proverb. A soft ground Listed winner in France last October. The 5-year-old bounced back to form in the first time cheekpieces when a 1 ¾ length 5th of 19 at York last Saturday. He enters the final few weeks of the campaign fresher than most and if he can build on last week’s effort wont be far away.
Longchamp
I have a few of interest at Longchamp on Saturday but I will only be backing them if they are 4/1 or bigger.
12:23 – Shembala seems to be progressing with racing and ran out a comfortable winner of a steadily run Listed race (1m 6f) here 22 days ago. Drying ground will suit the 3-year-old who has strong claims.
Irish challenger Harbour Wind, a winner at Navan in July, seemed to relish the step up to 1m 6f when winning a Listed race at Leopardstown 37 days ago. He’s an improving stayer and today’s extra furlong should suit the 3-year-old.
3:33 – Melo Melo returned from a 3 month lay off to win a Deauville Group 2 in August and improved again when a short-neck 2nd of 8 to Warm Heart in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille (1m 4f) here 20 days ago. The return to 1m 6f will suit the filly as she won a Listed race over C&D in May. Has a favourites chance but isn’t likely to reach my 4/1 threshold.
Ottery won a Group 3 Chantilly in June and ran just as well when a length 3rd of 10 to Melo Melo at Deauville in August. The winner has improved in defeat since, but Ottery didn’t get the best of runs when making her effort inside the final furlong at Deauville and would have finished closer. Looks worth a try at 1m 6f and could be value against the favourite.
Irish challenger Shamida has improved to win her last three starts and posted a career best on RPR’s when winning the Group 3 Irish St Leger Trial (1m 6f) at the Curragh last time. This is a better race than last time, but the daughter of Australia is on a upward curve and is open to further improvement.
4:08 – Isaac Shelby won the Greenham at Newbury on his seasonal return and produced a career best when a short neck 2nd of 9 in the French 2,000 Guineas over C&D in May. Hasn’t been disgraced on three starts since, last two over 7f, and a return to softer ground should see him go close back up to a mile.
4:43 – Erevann won the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein (1m) on this card 12 months ago. The 4-year-old hasn’t been at his best so far this season in Group 1 company but there was more to like about 1 ½ length 4th of 8 in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin here (1m). First start at 1m 2f and his inform trainer add the first time cheekpieces.
Sammarco, a double Group 1 winner in Germany in 2022 including the German Derby, hadn’t been in the same form this season but posted a career best effort last time when a ¾ length 3rd of 5 to Place du Carrousel in the Group 2 Prix Foy (1m 4f) here 20 days ago. Not sure to get the strong pace he needs dropped back to 1m 2f but has strong claims if he does.
Betting Advice
Newmarket
1:50 – Ghostwriter – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
2:25 – Soprano – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral
3:00 – Task Force – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral
3:40 – Saga – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral and Majestic – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Coral
Chester
2:05 – Tashkhan – 6/1 @ Coral
Longchamp
12:33 – Shembala – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:33 – Ottery – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365 and Shamida – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365
4:43 – Erevann – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Sammarco – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John