Hi all,
Plenty of competitive action today at Ayr where it’s the concluding day of the Western Meeting and the big betting race of the day the Ayr Gold Cup (3:35).
There’s Group 2 action at Newbury where the Mill Reef Stakes (3:15) is the centerpiece of a seven race card.
Across the Irish Sea at the Curragh there’s also Group 2 action with the Beresford Stakes. Just six have been declared with Aidan O’Brien saddling three of them. Add in a big field 5f Premier Handicap (3:50) and Irish punters have good card to get stuck into.
ITV4 are covering the best of the action at Ayr & Newbury on a nine race programme this afternoon and its Ayr where I start Saturday’s preview.
Ayr
1:15 – Previous course winner Titan Rock was back to form when 2nd of 9 at Thirsk last time. That was the 5-year-old’s first run for 11 weeks and this race has probably been the plan. Diamondonthehill is a consistent 7f/1m handicapper who should give his running once more. Revich won this corresponding race and was a ½ length third last year. A winner at Chester in May the 7-year-old was back to form when a 2 length 3rd of 12 to Master Zoffany back at Chester 21 days ago. Has nothing in hand of the handicapper off 95 but likely to go close.
1:50 – Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
With likely favourite My Prospero a non-runner it gives Royal Rhyme a good opportunity to make a winning step into Listed company. The 3-year-old improved plenty for the return to an easy surface when winning a 15 runner handicap at Goodwood last month. Looked a Group horse in a handicap last time and with ease underfoot can prove up to the task of winning this. His biggest rival looks to be Irish challenger Helvic Dream. He’s just had the three starts this season and produced a seasonal best when a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 6 in a Group 3 at the Curragh last month. Mostly out of form since winning a Group 1 in 2021 this was a step back in the right direction and if he can build on last time he can’t be easily ruled out.
2:25 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Plenty in with a chance in the Gold Cup consolation race with seven on my race shortlist.
Gulliver bounced back to winning ways at Southwell 10 days ago. He’s got a 5lb penalty to carry but remains well treated on the best of his back form. Should get the strong pace he needs here and if stall 22 isn’t an inconvenience won’t be far away.
Rathbone followed up his Sandown success with a win at Doncaster 9 days ago. He was well on top at the finish last time and even under a 5lb penalty should be bang their given his current vein of form.
Jump The Gun was back to something like his best for the first time this season when a neck runner-up to Rathbone at Doncaster last week. He got no sort of run between the final two furlongs, would have finished a lot closer, when an eyecatching 5 ½ length 5th of 25 in last year’s race. He’s 10lb lower than 12 months ago and must be high on the shortlist.
Bernardo O’Reilly was a 2 ¼ length third in last years race, from 2lh higher. Needs all the cards to fall right to win and stall 1 might not prove ideal.
Aplomb is on a losing run that goes back nearly 3 years but he’s 8lb lower than when a 5 ½ length sixth in last year’s race. He’s placed on his last two starts so comes into the race in form and handles ease in the ground. On handy mark and can go close if everything falls right for him.
Admiral D isn’t the most consistent of handicapper, but the 4-year-old is now 7lb lower than when an eyecatching 2 ¼ length 5th of 11 to Orazio at Newmarket on seasonal return. A strongly run 6f on soft ground are his optimum conditions and he could get into the frame on a going day.
Wobwobwob dropping back to 6f and in the first time visor did best of the smaller group that raced stand side when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 18 in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon last time. The more testing the ground the better and if he gets it he’s a big player with Hollie Doyle booked.
3:00 – Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Firth Of Clyde (Group 3) – 6f
Raqiya bids for the hat trick after wins at Salisbury and Haydock. There should be more to come from the daughter of Blue Point who looks a smart prospect and should be able to hold her own in pattern company.
Great Generation made it 2-2 when winning at Chester 21 days ago. Like Raqiya she’s a nice prospect with more to come. Unlike Raqiya she is proven with some ease in the ground.
Dorothy Lawrence is more exposed than the two mentioned above but she posted a near career best when a short head 2nd of 12 to Juniper Berries in a Group 3 at Salisbury 16 days ago. Not ruled out given she’s trained by Karl Burke but you would think Raqiya and Great Generation have more upside.
3:35 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Looking at the race trends since 2008 those runners drawn in stalls 1 to 7 are – 0 winners from 96 runners, 11 placed. Two on my initial shortlist for the race Probe (4) & Aleezdancer (5) haven’t fared well on the draw front. That said there’s a fair amount pace among the lower numbers which could bring them into the mix.
Probe was in great form in the spring winning a valuable sprint handicap at Newmarket in May. A strongly run 6f suits the 5-year-old as does some ease in the ground and he goes well fresh. Apart from his draw he has appealing claims at big odds.
Aleezdancer needs soft ground to be at his best. He’s just higher than when winning at Doncaster on the opening weekend of the season and was back to form when a 3 length 5th of 27 in Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time. He was best of the smaller group that raced far side that day. I have had the 4-year-old in mind for this race all season but those draw stats are a concern.
Juan Les Pins (20) is another I like for the race. The 4-year-old was third in last year’s race. Although he’s 14lb higher this time around the 6-year-old has improved since last year and finished a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 27 in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, from 2lb lower. The 6-year-old produced a career best last time when ¾ length 2nd of 8 to Commanche Falls in a York Listed race 13 days ago. Soft ground would be a worry as his best form has come on a sound surface. He’s been well backed in the last couple of days and is vying for ante post favourtism with Orazio.
Orazio (23) has been a beaten favourite for both the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot and Goodwood’s Stewards Cup. Can he make it third time lucky? He was very disappointing in the later race but that was on heavy ground. He remains capable of better than he’s been able to show on his last two starts and I still think he could end up being a group sprinter.
Rohaan (25) is well suited to strongly run 6f handicaps, but the former dual Wokingham Handicap winner has been below form, so far this season. If he bounces back to his best he’s very much in the mix.
You can’t rule out last year’s winner Summerghand (15). He comes into the race in great form,but drying ground would be preferred.
Significantly also comes into the race in cracking form having just been beaten a short head in last Saturday’s Portland Handicap (5 ½ f) at Doncaster. Strong claims off the same mark as Doncaster and nicely treated but I think 6f on rain softened ground just stretches his stamina.
Onto Newbury and the four ITV races.
Newbury
1:30 – Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Sense Of Duty looked like a Group 1 sprinter in the making when winning all her three starts last year. The latest of them came in a Group 3 at Newcastle 455 days ago. First start on soft ground but if she handles it should beat her four rivals comfortably.
2:05 – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 5 ½ f
Given there’s £70,000 in guaranteed prize money its disappointing that just seven are set to line up for this year’s renewal. The two that interest me most are the 3-year-old’s Laafi and Salt Bay.
Laafi won a Nottingham maiden on testing ground on his second start last October. He made a decent return to action when 4th of 8 in the Lingfield Derby Trial but was well below par in a Royal Ascot handicap next time. First run since and has been gelded. He remains with potential back on an easy surface.
Salt Bay won a Haydock maiden (good to soft) on his juvenile debut 12 months ago and then improved to finish a 2 length 3rd of 7 in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud (heavy). He’s been below par on both starts in Listed company this season. Hopes are pinned on the return to softer ground and today’s longer distance reviving him.
Sea King made all to beat three rivals at Goodwood two starts back. He was too keen at Haydock last time but does look the only pace angle here. If his jockey can get the fractions right here, he could bounce back to winning ways.
2:40 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Le Mans looked a progressive handicapper when winning on handicap debut at Salisbury (good to firm) 16 days ago. A 6lb rise in the weights is more than workable but today’s testing ground asks another question of the filly.
Balance Of Play looked an improver when winning on rain softened ground at Chester and Goodwood. He was never travelling on quick ground at York last time. If you forgive his York effort, he should go close on ground that suits.
Gaassee is becoming frustrating, and he didn’t looked suit by the drop back to today’s trip at Sandown three weeks ago. However, he does go well on testing ground and that will hopefully bring his stamina into play. On a handy mark on a going day and not ruled out.
Certain Lad finished well ahead of Gaassee when runner-up to Dual Identity at Sandown three weeks ago. Underfoot conditions will suit the 7-year-old who has slipped down the weights, and he should be in the mix off the same mark as last time.
3:15 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Mister Sketch built on the promise of his racecourse debut second when running out a comfortable winner of Salisbury novice last month. He looks like a juvenile going places and has changed ownership since last win. Soft ground is an unknown for the colt but if he handles it, can win this.
Red Zone Hero had too much speed for his eight rivals when winning a Doncaster nursery (soft) 8 days ago. Needs to improve to win this but of he gets genuinely soft ground should be thereabouts.
Betting Advice
Like last week I’m giving subscribers a chance to read and digest Saturday’s preview before I send out my selections and betting advice. They will follow in separate post.
Cheers
John