Evening all,
There are no complaints on the field size front today. Some 130 runners have been declared for Ayr’s eight races and 108 for eight races at Newbury. Those big field sizes don’t make winner finding easy, but it makes the racing a much better spectacle. Ok, there isn’t the Group 1 quality off last weekend, but the big field handicaps make up for it.
ITV are covering nine races live this afternoon. Five from Ayr and four from Newbury. Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of the action at Ayr & Newbury and Saturday’s betting advice is at the end of today’s preview.
Where else can I start but with the day’s big betting race the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (3:40).
Ayr
Ayr Gold Cup
In Wednesday’s race preview I identified several race trends that could be useful to help shortlist contenders. For those interested it left six qualifiers: Bergerac, Popmaster, Juan Les Pins, Zarzyni. Admiral D and Gis A Sub. Of those six, Juan Les Pins has had more than 27 career starts.
Bergerac has been revitalized by the fitting of the blinkers and although he has a 5lb penalty to carry for a recent York success another big run can’t be ruled out and he could prove the best of the Kevin Ryan runners.
Popmaster was drawn on the wrong side in the Goodwood Stewards Cup so its probably best to draw a line through that run. He’s better judged on ¾ length 2nd of 26 to Rohaan in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot.
Juan Les Pins who had been well placed to win five races for Michael Appleby wasn’t disgraced when a 3 ½ length 7th of 13 at Doncaster last Sunday. He wasn’t the best away last time and the softer ground didn’t really suit him.
Of those on Wednesday’s shortlist Irish challengers Erosandpsyche and Thunder Eclipse were not declared. That’s left seven: Khanjar, Commanche Falls, Bielsa, Fivethousandtoone, Gulliver, Chiefofchiefs & Admiral D.
Khanjar has been drawn is stall 5 and Fivethousandtoone is stall 3. Given how short the former is in the betting I’m happy to let him win from his draw. He would need to be a Group horse to win which of course he could be.
Commanche Falls is fine in stall 9 and although he does fail one of the races trends, I can live with that. To win this off top-weight he’ll need to be bordering Group 1 levels but it’s possible he is.
Bielsa is drawn in 17 and like Commanche Falls fails one of the trends. He’s fairly treated but it will be good effort to gain back-to-back win in the race.
The drying ground turns me away from the well handicapped Gulliver. There should be no excuses for Chiefofchiefs who gets his optimum conditions. But can a 9-year-old win an Ayr Gold Cup?
That leaves my “cliff horse” Admiral D. The booking of Oisin McSweeney to take off a handy 5lb I like. I just there was a bit more ease in the ground.
Ayr Silver Cup
Seventy minutes earlier it’s the Silver Cup for those who couldn’t get into the big race. Whilst the draw hasn’t been kind to low drawn horses in the Gold Cup. It’s been far different in the Silver Cup. Since 2018 eight of the last 13 winners have been drawn in the first 8 stalls or more precisely stall 2 as runners in Stall 1 are 0 winners from 13 runners 1 placed. Indeed, if you had backed all runners in stall 2 to 8 each way the profit would have been +119.25.
Those draw trends are strong but there is one caveat in that most of the pace does seem to be with horses drawn 16 and higher.
Emperor Spirit (1) should get an easy lead from his low draw. He comes into the race after an good head 2nd of 7 to Tanmawwy at Ffos Las last month. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are retained and he’s got a big chance even from stall 1.
If low draws continue to prevail the Snash(8) and Dusky Lord (10) look handily berthed in particular the former. Snash finished one place and head in front of Emperor Spirit when 3 ¼ length 6th of 14 in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon last time. He was slowly away that day and wasn’t well positioned afterwards so in the circumstances it was a good run. A strongly run big field 6f will suit and he must have a good chance of giving Tim Easterby a third race win since 2019.
Of those drawn higher the two I like most are Woven (13) and Strike Red (15). The first named is on a long losing run but ran well on his first two starts over 6f in the spring. Drop back from 7f but he’s well-treated and a big field scenario could really suit the 6-year-old. Strike Red caught the eye when a 1 ½ length 6th of 12 to Gale Force Maya on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket in April. He’s now 3lb lower and hasn’t been running badly on subsequent starts. Can be awkward at the start and does need to come off a strong pace which he should get here. He’s got the talent to defy this sort of mark of 90 when all the cards fall right and he’s a big enough price to take a chance on.
Rest of the card:
1:20 – Revich won this mile handicap, from 3lb lower, last year and ran better than he’s 4 ¾ length 8th of 14 here on Thursday suggests. The 1m 2f trip seemed to stretch his stamina and a return to a mile will suit him better.
4:15 – Animate improved when getting off the mark at the third attempt at Newcastle last month and could be capable of better on nursery debut. Have Secret is more exposed and needed every yard of the 7f when getting up close to home at Haydock last time. The step up to a mile will suit and although he’s 8lb higher he should go close. Pol Roger bids for the hat trick on nursery debut. The step up to mile suited him at Thirsk and there should be more to come from the colt. Trainer Michael Dods had two winners here on Friday.
4:20 – Annandale won this race 12 months when trained by Mark Johnson. Has yet to win on 11 starts since joining Jim Goldie but he’s got a couple of pieces of form this season which would give him a better chance than his odds suggest. Stall 15 isn’t great and his last three runs have been poor but when he bounces back to form, he’s a well-treated horse.
Newbury
Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
Seven juveniles have been declared for the Newbury feature (2:50) and it could turn out to be a good renewal of the race.
Sakheer created a big impression when winning at Haydock 16-days ago. He probably didn’t beat much that day but visually he looked like a Group horse in the making. Trainer Roger Varian also saddles Charyn who was a winner on racecourse debut just failed under a penalty at Newmarket last time. He’s capable of more improvement and his full brother Wings Of War won this last year. You have to think Sakheer is the stable number one to give trainer Roger Varian a second win in the race.
Clive Cox has won this with Harry Angel (2016) and Wings Of War last year. His runners need respecting, and he saddles Heroism here. Was easy to back on his racecourse debut but knew his job and only needed to be pushed out to beat 11 rivals at Salisbury last time. He should be capable of winning more races and could be a very useful prospect.
Rest of the Newbury card.
2:15 – Tis Marvellous comes into the race in winning form having won the Beverley Bullet on his latest start. For me he’s vulnerable away from a stiff 5f like Ascot & Beverley. I prefer his stablemate Diligent Harry. The 4-year-old was placed twice in Group 3 company last season and made a highly encouraging seasonal reappearance at Doncaster in March. Disappointing here over 6f last time but he’s been given a 63-day break and is interesting dropped back to the minimum trip.
Manaccan is progressing into a smart sprinter and showed he’s at his best over 5f when winning the Listed Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster 10-days ago. Drying ground will suit and he can prove he’s capable of making his mark in Group company.
Chil Chil ran well for long way from a high draw when a 6 length 5th of 12 to Minzaal in the Sprint Cup at Haydock last time. Might be better over 6f but shouldn’t be far away if reproducing her best.
Mitbaahy looked unlucky in the run when neck 2nd of 8 to Raasel in a Group 3 at Sandown two starts back. Probably best to a put a line through his run when unsuited by the track at Goodwood last time. First start at 6f since his second juvenile start but if he’s as effective over this trip then he shouldn’t be far away.
Teresa Mendoza got the perfect hold up ride to win a Listed race at the Curragh in June. Back to something like her best when ¾ length 3rd of 10 in a Group 3 at Naas last month. Not of this dropped back to 5f but needs them to go hard up front and everything to fall right.
3:25 – Plenty in with a chance in this competitive Class 2 handicap run over 1m 2f. Warren Point looked a potential Group performer when winning a similar handicap at Goodwood last time. That was just his fourth career start so there could be more to come from him. Up 8lb for his latest win but if he’s to be better than a handicapper he must be winning this.
Special Envoy ran as if something was amiss when well beaten at York last time and is better judged on his improved win at Windsor the time before.
Marching Army is lightly raced for a 4-year-old and posted a career best on RPR’s when winning at Yarmouth last month. He’s 3lb higher now but had a bit in hand at the finish and shouldn’t be far away if in the same from here.
Hamaki bids for the hat trick after wins at Haydock and Ascot. There was plenty to like about his attitude at the finish at Ascot as he found plenty for pressure to hold off the eventual second and third close home. Up 4lb but Adam Farragher takes off a handy 5lb which negates the weight rise. There could be more to come from him.
Stay Well and Oneforthegutter both have claims. The former finished runner-up in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar in June. He’s respected off a 92-day layoff and has good form off even longer absences. Oneforthegutter was a solid 5 ½ length 4th of 12 to the improving Phantom Flight at York and isn’t out of it. Another with claims is Pistoletto finished his race of strongly back over mile last time when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 11 at Newmarket last month. Can race off the same mark here and although he’s very best form as come on the all-weather, he showed at Newmarket that he’s capable of winning off his present mark on the grass.
Betting Advice:
Ayr
1:20 – 1pt win – Revich – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:30 – 1pt win – Snash – 15/2 @ Bet365 and 1pt win- Strike Red – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – 1pt win – Commanche Falls – 12/1 @ Bet365, 1pt win – Admiral D – 25/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and Bergerac – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newbury
2:15 – 1pt win – Diligent Harry – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
2:50 – 1pt win – Heroism – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:25 – 1pt win – Hamaki – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Marching Army – 8/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John