Hi all,
There’s a fantastic couple of days racing ahead. It’s the final English Classic of the 2021 flat season with Cazoo St Leger the feature of a seven-race card at Doncaster. Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane is a hot favourite for the oldest classic but as we saw last week with Starman in the Betfair Sprint Cup these short-priced favourites can be beaten.
There’s also a good supporting card of races. The Group 2 Champagne Stakes may have only attracted a field of four but they include Gimcrack winner Lusail and The Queen’s exciting classic prospect Reach For The Moon. Add in the big field Portland Handicap and you have a great end to four days racing on Town Moor.
Leopardstown stages the first day of Irish Champions Weekend on a stellar Saturday. The Irish Champion Stakes (2.45) is the feature race of an eight-race card and is set to play host to a mouth-watering clash between top three-year-old St Mark’s Basilica, Breeders’ Cup Turf heroine Tarnawa and English 2,000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare stepping up to 1m 2f for the first time.
Some top fillies and mares headed by Mother Earth will be in action in the Group 1 Matron Stakes (1.40). The card also contains two Group 2s, the Champions Juvenile Stakes (2.10) and Boomerang Mile (3.15), as well as two ultra-competitive handicaps on a brilliant day of action.
The ITV cameras are covering four races from Doncaster, the Irish Champions Stakes and two races from Chester on a seven-race show.
I don’t have the time to preview all those big races so I’m concentrating on those races where I have selections plus the two big races.
Today’s selections can be found at the end of today’s preview.
Cazoo St Leger Festival – Day 4
The rain arrived during racing on Friday to ease the ground to good to soft but little rain is forecast so it should be just about perfect ground for St Leger Day.
Doncaster
1:45 – Portland Handicap (Class 2) – 5 ½ f
Hurricane Ivor was a length 3rd of 22 at York last month. He races off the same mark and this intermediate trip looks ideal for the 4-year-old who has nice pot in him. There looks to be a decent amount of pace in the lower drawn numbers but low draw hasn’t been an advantage in this race in the past 13-years with stalls 1-6 producing 0 winners from 73 7 placed.
Stone Of Destiny won this last year off 7lb lower. Hasn’t won since but has run several good races this year including when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 16 in the Epsom Dash off 2lb higher. A decent 1 ¼ length 5th of 10 behind Mondammaj at Haydock last Saturday. His style of running means he needs all the cards to fall right like last year. The forecast pace suggests he should get the race run to suit. Also, in the King Power colours like Stone Of Destiny is the interesting Premier Power. The 4-year-old has only had the seven career starts, winning two of then both on the all-weather. He’s only had two starts on turf the first on his juvenile debut and the next one when a 5-length 7th of 10 at Newmarket last month. He ran well for a long way that day and given that was his first since February he should strip fitter today. Osin Murphy is an interesting jockey booking.
Jawwaal could have done with the rain staying away. His best form has come on quick ground and he’s Doncaster form figures are 321011. His won poor effort here came in this race last year. Finished a nose in front of Stone Of Destiny last week.
Mondammaj finally landed on a sprint handicap at Haydock last Saturday. He’s 3lb higher now but this sort of race should suit the 4-year-old and he’s not out of it, now he’s got the winning habit.
Whenthedealinsdone looked nicely head of his mark when winning at Goodwood (good to soft) two starts back but ran no sort of race at York last time. The 3-year-old is surely better than that run and if you forgive him that run, he’s a contender. William Buick stays in the saddle which is a positive to his chance. Trainer won this in 2019 with another 3-year-old Oxted.
Boundless Power looked like a big field strongly run sprint handicap would suit when winning at Nottingham in May. Shaped like he was still on a good mark when a 2 ¾ length 5th of 18 at Ascot on his next start. He got no luck in the run and ran much better than his 12th of 25 in the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race and didn’t get the clearest of runs when a 1 length 4th of 10 at Windsor 23-days ago.
Verdict: I’m loath to leave out last years winner Stone Of Destiny off the shortlist but I’m going with Boundless Power and Whenthedealinsdone.
3:35 – Cazoo St Leger Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 6 ½ f
It’s hard to find any chinks in the armour of the odds on favourite Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane. Aidan O’Brien saddles four of the ten runners. The two that interest me most are High Definition & Interpretation. The former finished a 2-length 3rd of 10 to Hurricane Lane in the Dante on his seasonal return but has run very poorly on his last two starts in the Irish Derby and the Great Voltigeur at York. Interesting that connections supplemented for £50,000 earlier in the week and as I was hoping he gets the first-time headgear. Hopes are pinned on the first time cheekpieces having the desired effect. If they do, he can give the favourite a race. Interpretation has won all three starts this season and showed he stays well when winning a Listed race at Leopardstown last month. There could be more to come from him, given he’s only had the four-career starts. Still, he will need to have improved plenty to win a race like this.
Verdict: Hurricane Lane surely wins this but I’m expecting a much better run from High Definition in the first-time headgear.
5:10 – Vermantia Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Royal Fleet a winner of his first three starts lost his unbeaten record when a 3-length 5th of 14 behind Rifleman at York last month. Would have preferred a more strongly run race at York and I don’t think we have seen the best of the 3-year-old just yet.
Dance Fever didn’t really get the race run to suit when 4th to his stablemate Aratus at Goodwood last time. Should be better suited by the pace of today’s race and not ruled out from the inform Clive Cox yard.
Ametist won his first three starts this season but hasn’t kicked on and has been his best on his last two starts. The first time cheekpieces are applied and if they can galvanize him back to form, he’s not handicapped out of this.
Teston is likely to be one of the outsiders here but has each way claims. The 6-year-old’s last win came over C&D in June last year, off 1lb higher. and he’s having his first start since wind surgery. Trainer & jockey combined for a big race winner here on Wednesday.
Verdict: I don’t think we have the best of Royal Fleet yet and he looks the one to be with from a win perspective but C&D winner Teston has each way claims.
Irish Champions Weekend – Day 1
I have more fancies running at Leopardstown than Doncaster today.
Leopardstown
1:10 – KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Maritime Wings, a maiden winner on his racecourse debut, has since finished runner-up to the smart Point Lonsdale on his last two starts. He brings the best form into the race but does face several unexposed colts. Stablemate Buckaroo built on the promise of his racecourse debut when winning at Galway last time. Given he didn’t seem to handle the track to well and still looked a bit green, it was an excellent effort. He’s got plenty of scope for improvement and should be better suited by this flatter track.
Atomic Jones looks the pick of the Ger Lyons pair on jockey bookings. The son of Wootten Bassett seemed to relish the quick ground when making a winning racecourse debut at the Curragh 76-days ago. First run since but is open to plenty of improvement for the step up to a mile.
Verdict: Joseph O’Brien has a strong hand with favourite Maritime Wings and Buckaroo but at the prices I like the looks of the Ger Lyons trained Atomic Jones.
1:40 – Coolmore America “Justify” Matron Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m
Mother Earth has already won two Group 1’s this season the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Prix Rothschild at Deauville last month. She’s also placed in two other Group 1’s and will be hard to beat here.
Champers Elysees won this 12 months ago but hasn’t been at that level of form this season albeit it was a step back in the right direction when she finished runner-up to Acanella in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time.
A bigger danger to the favourite could be the improving Pearls Galore. The 4-year-old has won her last two in Group 3 company and fully deserves her place in Group 1 company. The better the ground the better her chance so she will be hoping the ground doesn’t ease too much before post time.
Verdict: Mother Earth has the best form but I think the improving Pearls Galore looks the value pick at the 7/1 available with Bet365.
2:10 – Clipper Logistics Boomerang Mile (Group 2) – 1m
Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Mac Swiney takes a drop-in class here after running in Group 1 company on his last three starts. Back at a mile for the first time since his Guineas success a reproduction of that performance would make him tough to beat especially should the rain arrive to ease the ground.
Maker Of Kings improved for the fitting of the first-time blinkers to win a Group 3 over C&D in May and improved again to run Japan to a short head over 1m 1f here 58-days ago. Looks likely to be there or thereabouts again.
Fev Rover is respected on her 1 ¼ length 3rd of 11 to Mother Earth in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket. She’s struggled on both her starts since on heavy ground but has place claims on her Guineas run. First run since Royal Ascot but she’s gone well fresh in the past.
Njord can normally be relied on to give his running. Put in an excellent effort when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 10 behind Sacred in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last month. The ground would have been plenty quick enough at Newbury and he’s another who will be suited by rain easing the ground.
Verdict: Mac Swiney can take advantage of today’s drop-in class and beat Maker Of Kings.
2:45 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Just the four runners but with three Group 1 winners in St Mark’s Basilica, Tarnawa and Poetic Flare all set to run it’s a high-class renewal of the race.
St Mark’s Basilica heads the betting and is a worthy favourite. His best form has come with some juice in the ground but he’s a good mover so there’s no reason why he won’t be just as effective on a quicker surface. Tactically versatile the French 2,000 Guineas/ French Derby winner showed a good turn of foot to beat three rivals in the Coral Eclipse. I suspect there is an even better performance in the colt.
Easier ground would bring Tarnawa’s stamina into play. Her main target this season is the Arc and finishing close-up to St Mark’s Basilica wouldn’t damage her Longchamp chance that’s not to say that this high-class mare can’t win this.
Poetic Flare has excellent form at a mile winning the 2.000 Guineas & the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and running Palace Pier to a neck in the Jacques le Marois at Deauville last month. He looks worth a try at 1m 2f on pedigree but needs good or quicker ground to be at his best.
Verdict: A race to enjoy rather than bet in for me. If Colin Keane makes the running on Tarnawa he could take the sting out of St Mark’s Basilica speed. The quicker the ground the better the chance for Poetic Flare. However, I think the favourite can win take this.
3:45 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Petingo” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 5f
The first of two big field competitive handicaps that conclude the first day of Champions Weekend.
Phoenix Cowboy put in a career best effort when powering clear of his rivals to win at Gowran Park last month. He’s been raised 9lb for that 4-length success but he’s going the right way and could improve further for the step up to 1m 5f.
Silaiyli was 7 lengths behind Phoenix Cowboy in 5thin the Gowran race. He wasn’t as well placed as the winner that day and does get a 13lb pull in the weights but still it will be a tough ask to finish in front, although the first time cheekpieces could help, as could the step up to 1m 5f.
One place and 1 ¾ lengths further behind at Gowran Park was Shoshone Warrior. He’s a frustrating horse but its worth noting some of his best runs have come at Leopardstown including when a ½ length runner-up in this race last year off 4lb higher.
Willie Mullins saddles five and the best of his runners could be Hook Up to be ridden by Ryan Moore. The 5-year-old ran well when a 4 ½ length 4th of 19 in the valuable 2m 1f amateur handicap at Galway last time.
Crowns Major improved to win for the first time on the flat when successful in a valuable 1m 4f handicap at the Galway Festival last time. He’s been hiked up 14lb for that win but he’s lightly raced enough to think we haven’t seen the best of the 4-year-old. The first time cheekpieces are applied today and he’s a big contender. Longbourn was 2 lengths back in second and gets an 8lb pull in the weights here. He should give his running again but probably doesn’t have the scope for improvement as the winner.
Presto shaped with plenty of encouragement on his first start for seven months when a 4 ¼ length 3rd of 15 over C&D two starts back. Not so good in the first time cheekpieces at Killarney 23-days ago. The headgear has been removed and with Dylan Browne McMonagle taking off a handy 3lb he’s not out of this.
Verdict: Plenty on the shortlist. My two against the field are Phoenix Cowboy and Crown’s Major.
4:25 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Sovereign Path” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 7f
Masen is plenty short enough at around 4/1 given he has a wide draw in 19 to overcome. That said the 3-year-old has only had four career starts and is open to more improvement. He returned from a 11-month absence to finish a good second in Killarney Listed race last month. Will be sharper today and could be on a good mark for his handicap debut. Stablemate Bucky Larson has won twice here over a mile. He returned to winning ways at Naas last time and is 2lb higher here. Sam Ewing takes off 5lb which negates the 6-year-old’s rise in the weight and the forecast strong pace will bring his stamina into play.
Riot shaped with plenty of promise on his first start for Johnny Murtagh when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 14 at Dundalk. That was his first start at 6f and he was doing his best work at the finish. Best form has come over 7f so a return to the trip is a positive. Not the easiest to win with but the forecast strong pace will suit his hold up style.
Dream Today was ¾ length behind Riot at Dundalk he’s run well over C&D in the past and is only 1lb higher than when winning a 6f handicap at Fairyhouse two starts back.
Top-weight Bopedro put in a much-improved performance in the first-time visor when winning the Irish Cambridgeshire last time. He’s 9lb higher and dropping back to 7f here but did finish 4th in this race in 2019 and has the pace to cope with the drop in distance. Will need luck in the run but another big run can’t be ruled out.
English trained runners have won this four times in the past ten years so both Fools Rush In and Tadleel have chances. The former bids for the hat trick after wins at Haydock & Chester and is suited by both ground and distance. Tadleel wouldn’t be far away of reproducing his 5th of 18 in the Bunbury Cup although he probably wouldn’t want easier ground than good. Trainer Richard Fahey won this in 2018.
Blue For You won here over a mile two starts back. The first-time visor had the desired effect that day but he ran dreadfully at Galway last time. The visor is replaced by the first-time blinkers. If the switch of headgear works, he wouldn’t be far away although stall 20 doesn’t look the best of draws.
Verdict: Another handicap with plenty on the shortlist. Masen & Riot are big contenders. Fools Rush In must be respected but my slight preference is for Masen’s stablemate Bucky Larson.
Betting Advice:
I actually have more fancies at Leopardstown than Doncaster today.
Doncaster
1:45 – 1pt win – Boundless Power – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win Whenthedealinsdone – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
5:10 – 2pts win – Royal Fleet – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Teston – 30/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds).
Leopardstown
1:10 – 1pt win – Atomic Jones – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1:40 – 1pt win – Pearls Galore – 7/1 @ Bet365
2:10 – 1pt win – Mac Swiney – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:45 – 1pt win – Phoenix Cowboy – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 1pt win – Crowns Major – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
4:20 – 1pt win – Bucky Larson – 12/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John