Hi all,
On Saturday besides the Cesarewitch Handicap the Newmarket highlight is the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes (3:00)
It’s the final two days of racing at York for the season with Saturday’s big race the normally ultra-competitive Coral Sprint Trophy (3:15). It’s also the concluding day of Chepstow’s ‘Jumps Season Opener’.
In today’s preview I have looked at the four races being broadcast live on ITV on Saturday afternoon. Plus, a few other races where I have selections. Saturday’s betting advice can be found as ever at the end of the main piece.
Newmarket
Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (1:50)
Flying Honours must redeem himself in this Group 3 contest after his disappointing run here Royal Lodge Stakes last time. He’ll be a short price to do so but still deserves to head the betting. The Charlie & Mark Johnston trained Dear My Friend looks his biggest rival on ratings. Ralph Beckett saddled Max Vega to win this in 2019 and relies on Haydock winner Batemans Bay. He’s going the right way and the step up to 1m 2f will suit the colt on pedigree. Metal Merchant is getting better with each run. He stepped up markedly on his previous form when winning on nursery debut at Ayr last month. There should be more to come from him, but he’s officially rated 84.
Emirates Autumn Stakes (2:25)
The second of the three juvenile races that open the Newmarket card. Despite just six runners its an interesting contest.
Silver Knott and Holloway Boy head the official ratings. A win for either would give a boost to Chaldean and Nostrum backers in the Dewhurst. Silver Knott was third to Chaldean last time and Holloway Boy was runner-up to Nostrum. Of the pair I just favour the latter. However, both colts do look a bit exposed and there is likely to be a smart one lurking in the race.
Dancing Magic finished a 1 ¼ length runner-up to Naval Power (also in the Dewhurst) in a Listed race at Haydock last time. The son of Camelot is bred to do better as 3-year-old over middle distance. A maiden after three career starts interesting that connections come here rather than go for a maiden or novice race.
Epictetus is arguably the most intriguing of the six runners. The son of Kingman looked a smart prospect when winning a maiden on the July course on racecourse debut 92-days ago. The form of that race has worked out well. Not sure why he’s been off for so long though, but he’s got the potential for plenty of upside.
The superbly bred Exoplanet made a winning racecourse debut at Newbury (7f) last month. This will take some winning on just his second career start, but he will be suited by the step up to a mile. He’s one for the future (1m 2f+) on the evidence of his Newbury success. However, he could prove up to today’s task.
Darley Dewhurst Stakes (3:00)
I previewed the days’ feature race in Thursday’s column. Despite the non-participation of ante post favourite Sakheer.It has the potential to be a cracker of a race. I wish I had taken the 15/2 about Chaldean but sadly I didn’t. On known form the colt should be favourite but instead he’s still a backable 4/1 in places. All the money in the last this week even before Sakheer has been for Nostrum. You can see why. He’s arguably the most promising of the seven runners, but he must by really doing well in his work to be as short as he is in the betting. At a bigger price I wouldn’t put anyone off Isaac Shelby. Trainer Brian Meehan thinks he has a Guineas horse on his hands and if he has, then he won’t be far away here.
Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (3:40)
With Adagio out. Ahorsewithnoname and Run For Oscar are vying for favouritism. There’s plenty of money for the latter in the last few days and given connection and his profile you can see why. I prefer Ahorsewithnoname. This has long been the plan and Ryan Moore 2-2 on the mare does take the ride. I wouldn’t put anyone off the likely favourite.
The ante post springer has been Favorite Moon, but I wonder if he would want more ease in the ground. The best of Willie Mullins three runners for me is Gibraltar. The 5-year-old bis for the hat trick after wins at Leopardstown & Tramore. Up 7lb for his Tramore success and in a much deeper race but Saffie Osborne takes off a handy 3lb. He stays 2m well, should stay today’s extra two furlongs and his high on my shortlist.
Call My Bluff is a thorough stayer as he showed in the Chester Plate early in the season and when 1 ½ length 3rd of 10 to Rajinsky in the Cesarewitch Trial over C&D two starts back. Despite, being a 5-year-old, he’s looks to be improving as he showed when a head 2nd of 15 at Chester 14-days ago. Each way claims and looks overpriced at 20/1 if he gets a stamina test.
Hugo Palmer has booked Frankie Dettori for Zoffee. The 6-year-old improved for the step up to 2m to win the Northumberland Vase in June. He likely didn’t stay 2m 4f at Goodwood two starts back. However, he was to his best at 2m when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 12 to Alfred Boucher at York last time. Today’s 2m 2f should be within his stamina range and another big run is expected.
York
3:15 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Plenty in with a chance an ultra-competitive sprint. Dusky Lord won Ayr’s Silver Cup last time. A 9lb rise in weights might not stop him if in the same form here. I’m never happy with stall 1 in sprints like this. However, eight of the last ten winners of the race were drawn in a single digit stall. He will be hard to beat if the cheekpieces continue to have the desired effect.
Gulliver (22) won this in 2019 & 2020. He’s become a very handicapped horse, and this has likely been the plan. However, will the York turf be soft enough for the 8-year-old and stall 22 is a concern. None of the last ten winners were drawn higher than 15.
A high draw is a concern for Irish challenger Laugh A Minute (21). An unlucky runner-up in last year’s race off today’s mark. He comes into the race in form and should go close again if his draw isn’t an inconvenience.
Admiral D (20) has been a bit of a ‘cliff horse’. Twice a winner on soft ground when trained in Ireland he’s yet to win for present trainer Richard Fahey but he’s been running well including when a 2 length 7th of 24 to Summerghand in Ayr Gold Cup last time. The 3-year-old needs all the cards fall right and probably needs some ease ground to win this. Oh and he’s got a high draw to overcome.
Like Gulliver Bielsa (9) has dropped down to a winnable mark being 1lb below his last winning mark in last year’s Ayr Gold Cup. He hasn’t been at his best this season, but first time blinkers replace the cheekpieces and trainer Kevin Ryan won this race in 2017 &2018 so he can’t be easily dismissed.
Air Raid (10) was a good third in last year’s race. He likes good to soft or softer ground and comes into the race fresher than most. First run for 128 days but he’s 2-6, 3 placed when racing 121+days since his last start.
Dakota Gold (2) is a six time winner at York so can never be ruled out at his favourite venue. Has a low draw and provided there is some soft in the going description can make his presence felt.
4:25 – It’s Good To Laugh looks the value play against the hat trick seeking favourite Atacama Desert. The latter was an impressive winner over C&D last time and has solid claims. However, I’m going with It’s Good To Laugh. The 5-year-old returned from a 11 week break with a promising 2 ¼ lengths 5th of 15 at Ayr three weeks ago. This is normal his time of year and although he has proven his stamina for 2m on the flat I think he will stay.
5:00 – Ziggy hasn’t been seen since making a winning seasonal reappearance at Haydock in May. Although the 4-year-old has been raised 10lb for that win he looked much improved that day and can defy it. Connections opted not to run him on quick ground over the summer and trainer Harry Eustace is 3-7 with his runners in the past 14-days.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
2:25 – Exoplanet – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
3:40 – Gibraltar – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Call My Bluff – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
York
3:15 – Dusky Lord – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Bielsa – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Bet365
4:25 – It’s Good To Laugh – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365
5:00 – Ziggy – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John