Hi all,
Yesterday was garbage I can’t think of a better word to describe it. Things can only get better today.
There’s good action across both codes on Saturday. The highlight of a seven race card at Doncaster is the Group 1 Vertem Futurity. It’s Newbury’s final flat card of the season. The feature races of a seven race card are pair of Group 3s, the Horris Hill Stakes (1.50) and St. Simon Stakes (2.25).
It’s day two of Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting. ITV are covering four races from the home of National Hunt racing including three interesting handicaps. The race of the day though is the Group 1 Vertem Futurity at Doncaster.
I have had an in-depth look at seven races across Britain & Ireland. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Doncaster
There’s been plenty of rain in South Yorkshire over the last couple of days and the going has gone from good to soft on Wednesday to heavy by the end of racing on Friday.
Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (3:35)
Auguste Rodin has a solid favourite chance especially as we know he handles soft ground. However, at shade of odds on I can happily let him win.
Epictetus returned from a 3 month layoff to finish a neck 2nd of 6 in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes (1m) at Newmarket earlier this month. He’ll be sharper with that run under his belt. Soft ground would be an unknown for the son of Kingman colt and it’s a concern that he will get stuck in the mud.
Stormbuster, runner-up to Flying Honours at Salisbury followed up when making all to win conditions race at Newbury (1m) last month. That was a much improved effort by the son of Dubawi. He’s from a family that does better with racing and is likely capable of better. Like Epictetus he faces testing ground for the first time. He’s likely to handle conditions better and could be the value alternative to the favourite.
Scott Dobson Memorial Handicap (1:20)
Tomfre hasn’t been in the winner’s enclosure since winning over C&D in November 2020 and his form this season has been poor. That means he’s dropped down to a very tempting handicap mark. He’s 4-9 on soft or heavy ground, 2-4 over C&D including this race in 2020 and 4-8 in October/November. Plenty in the 5-year-old’s favour if he does bounce back to form this afternoon. It could be that the 5-year-old has gone at the game. However, I’m happy to take a chance at double figure odds that he hasn’t.
vertem.co.uk Handicap (4:10)
The final Doncaster race live on ITV4 is another 5f contest but this time a Class 2 handicap. Lullaby Bay looks well handicapped if reproducing her nose 2nd of 5 to Makanah at Musselburgh 12-days ago. Stablemate Fast Response bounced back to winning ways when beating 11 rivals at Nottingham 10-days ago. It was a career best form the 3-year-old and she’s now 2-2 on soft ground. Up 3lb but capable of a big run if in the same form as last time.
Whenthedealinsdone hasn’t been seen at his best on his two starts but if the cards fall right, he’s a useful sprint handicapper on a going day.
Vintage Clarets has bounced back to form since returning to 5f and a gelding operation. A winner at Windsor, he’s since finished runner-up at York and occupied the same position when beating all bar, the improving Chipsted in the Catterick Dash 7-days ago.
Cheltenham
The rain even arrived on Friday with 10mm falling, turning the ground from good to firm to good all over. Looking at the times I would say it was getting closer to good to soft.
888Sport Is Made To Play Handicap Chase (2:05)
A 3m 1f handicap chase gets ITV4’s Cheltenham coverage underway. The Hollow Ginge doesn’t win very often but he finished a head second in this race last year on his seasonal reappearance to add to his good record fresh. The handicapper has given him a big chance, as he’s 10lb lower this time around.
Neville’s Cross made it 5 wins from 14 starts over fences when winning at Bangor in July. He’s 5lb higher in a better race but on a sound, surface can’t be ruled out. This is a much better race than last time, but he’s got each way claims.
Lord Accord ran well on his first starts over fences last autumn, but his form tailed off badly in the second half of the season. He had a pipe opener over hurdles last month so has fitness on his side. On a decent mark if returning to last autumn’s best.
888Sport Handicap Chase (3:15)
Just the seven for this 2m handicap chase which is disappointing given there’s £60,000 in guaranteed prize money on offer. That said it’s still a competitive contest.
The early bird betting is headed by recent Worcester winner Clear The Runway. The 6-year-old returned from a four month absence to make it 5 wins from 7 starts over fences. This is a deeper race on a very different track, but he remains very much on the upgrade.
Top-weight Editeur Du Gite has yet to run a bad race at Cheltenham. A winner of his first two runs over C&D. He ran a career best when a 6 ½ length 4th of 16 at the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Festival in March. The ground was heavy that day and all his winning form has come on good/good to soft ground. If he’s ready to roll he will take some pegging back.
Willie Mullins brings over Dads Lad. The 7-year-old made it 2-3 over fences when comfortably winning on handicap chase debut at Killarney in August. Merely a respectable performance when 5th of 17 back over hurdles last time. However, he should be seen to better effect back over the larger obstacles.
Poseidon was well suited to a sound surface when trained by Charles Byrnes and is of interest on his first start for Gordon Elliott. The 8-year-old looks fairly treated on his good ground, handicap chase win at Cork last October.
Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (3:50)
No field size problem with this Pertemps Series Qualifier with 18 being declared to run. Previous course winner Botox Has looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper. He’s only been raised 1lb after his win in the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell in February. Two good efforts over 3m suggest he stays.
An Tailliur steadily progressive in handicap hurdle company winning three time s and looked better than ever when ½ length 2nd of 13 at Cartmel in May. Up 2lb but ground versatile, stays 3m and goes well fresh must be high in the shortlist.
Kansas City Chief won this race last year as a 12-year-old. He’s a got a solid course record and has the benefit of a recent run. The cheekpieces left off last time return and he seems likely to give his running again.
Panic Attack improved for the fitting of the blinkers winning here over an extended 2m 4f in April before a 2 ½ length 2nd of 16 at Haydock over 3m. Just 1lb higher here and the forecast strong pace will suit the mare.
Didtheyleaveuoutto is fit from the flat when a good 3 ¼ lengths 4th of 10 to Knappers Hill in Silver Trophy at Chepstow two weeks ago. He was doing his best work at the finish last time but needed a stronger test of stamina. Not had many goes at 3m but showed he stayed when runner-up at Newbury in November. I’m slightly concerned about the ease in the ground, but he can go close.
Leopardstown
Ann Hartnett Celebration Handicap )3:45)
Toshizou was a good ¾-length 2nd of 9 to Breaking Story at Limerick on his seasonal reappearance in April. We haven’t seen him since that run but he’s only 1lb higher than at Limerick and has an attractive lightly raced profile and could be well treated if as effective on the softest ground he’s raced on so far.
Despite the obvious claims of the favourite he’s too short for me and at an each way price I prefer the claims of Quizical. Granted he’s a on a losing run that goes back to October 2019 but he’s a C&D winner and goes very well on testing ground. He’s done reasonably well on both starts since returning from a 4 month break including when a 3 ½ length 7th of 14 to Saltonstall at Tipperary 20-days ago. He didn’t get the best of runs 1f out last time otherwise would have finished closer. The handicapper has given the 7-year-old a chance and I think he can make the places.
Betting Advice:
Doncaster
1:20 – Tomfre – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – Stormbuster – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Bet365
4:10 – Fast Response – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes and Vintage Clarets – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
Cheltenham
2:05 – The Hollow Ginge – 1pt win – 10/3 @ Coral
3:50 – Botox Has – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Didtheyleaveuoutto – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Leopardstown
3:45 – Quizical – 1pt each way – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places)
There’s more live racing on ITV4 on Sunday from Aintree and Limerick where the feature is the Ladbrokes Munster National. That means there will be some selections for you tomorrow.
Cheers
John