Hi all,
We’ve got Grade 1 excitement on both sides of the Irish Sea this Saturday afternoon. Over at Haydock, it’s the Betfair Chase, which gets underway at 3:00.
Meanwhile, at Punchestown, the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle features the seasonal return of Champion Hurdle runner-up State Man. In a classic Willie Mullins vs. Gordon Elliott showdown, it’s tough to see him being beaten, even though some of the Willie Mullins runners have been needing their seasonal returns.
Inside today’s preview I’m focusing on the races being covered live from Haydock and Ascot on ITV. My selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Haydock
The going is being described as good to soft at Haydock and given the weather forecast it shouldn’t be too much different on Saturday.
At Haydock, Protektorat, last year’s Betfair Chase winner, faces just four rivals in his bid for back-to-back successes. While he has 6lb to find with favorite Bravemansgame on Official Ratings, this race is Protektorat’s Gold Cup, and I believe he can secure another win. Royale Pagaille, with impressive form figures at Haydock, deserves respect but would need both top contenders to underperform to triumph over 3m.
The Haydock undercard is packed with excitement. A competitive Grade 2 novices’ hurdle kicks off the day, and there’s an intriguing Graduation Chase (1:50), previously won by Bravemansgame in 2021. Gaillard Du Mesnil, a rare Haydock runner for Willie Mullins, returns over 2m 5f on his seasonal debut. While the trip might be a bit short for him, he’s likely to go off as the favourite.
Grey Dawning and Apple Away are strong rivals, with the former appreciating the soft ground and showing promise on his chase debut at Exeter. Apple Away, a Grade 1 winner at Aintree last season, makes her chase debut here and boasts a pedigree for jumping fences.
Of particular interest from a betting perspective is the Betfair “Serial Winners” Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2:20). With a competitive field of 16 runners and a £71,188 prize for the winner, this race promises excitement and potential betting opportunities.
2:20 – Betfair “Serial Winners” Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle – 3m
I previewed this race in Wednesday’s column. Using the six trends that have found the last 15 winners leaves four qualifiers: Crambo, Bold Endeavour, Gowel Road & Howlingmadmurdock.
Crambo and Irish challenger Slate Lane were vying for favouritism on the announcement of final declarations. Crambo is a trends qualifier, and the recent Aintree winner has strong claims.
Top weight Bold Endeavour boasts a record of good performances in big field staying handicap hurdles, including over the course and distance. He should be all the better for his recent seasonal return at Newbury.
Gowel Road is on a potentially winnable handicap mark but faces the challenge of returning from a 392-day layoff and has yet to race beyond 2m 5f. Definite claims if staying 3m.
Howlingmadmurdock won two of his first three starts over hurdles last season and ended the season with decent effort when a 9 length 5th of 15 to Apple Away in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April. He stays well, likes soft ground and isn’t one to dismiss on his seasonal reappearance.
Of those lurking at the bottom of the weights Lord Snootie and Goshhowposh have claims. Lord Snootie was shaping with promise on his return before a mistake two out at Galway last month. There’s potential for a win in handicap hurdle off his present mark provided he gets a thorough test of stamina. He’s been well backed ante post which is a positive but at 7/1 he’s now plenty short enough for me in a race like this. Goshhowposh has only gone up 4lbs for his handicap hurdle debut success at Exeter last month That was on good ground, which probably wasn’t ideal given he looks a thorough stayer. His jumping will be tested here but remains on a competitive mark.
Verdict: Crambo is a strong favourite, and I’m leaning towards him over the Irish challenger Slate Lane. However, looking at the odds, I’m going for Bold Endeavour and Howlingmadmurdock.
There are another couple of interesting handicaps on ITV.
1:15 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 3f
I don’t really like the top weights here although Stainsby Girl did win this corresponding race last year, albeit she’s now 12lb higher. Those at the foot of the weights are more interesting in truth and come into the race having won last time out.
Park Annonciade made it 2 from 4 over hurdles when winning an Ayr handicap hurdle three weeks ago. There could be a bit more to come from the 5-year-old but the return to a sounder surface seemed to suit the 5-year-old last time. Stablemate Carnfunnock is expected to thrive on the soft ground. A winner at Naas over 2m 3f in March, he posted a subpar performance in a Listed race (3m) at Perth the following month. Making his seasonal return here, successful first time-up last season. The shift back to handicap company should suit, making him a serious contender.
Park Hill Dancer improved to win a Huntingdon (good) maiden hurdle in May and followed up later that month on handicap debut at Uttoxeter (good to soft). She was going the right way when last seen in action and 8lb rise in the weights might not stop her completing the hat trick but more testing ground could.
Fingal’s Hill has a likeable profile and completed a four timer over hurdles when winning at Carlisle (soft)on his seasonal return 20 days ago. A 4lb rise in the weight makes life tougher for the 7-year-old but he’s remains high on the shortlist.
Verdict: The drying ground is a plus for Park Hill Dancer and Park Annonciade, with both being effective on a sound surface.But watch out, Fingal’s Hill, aiming for a fifth consecutive win, is comfortable on various ground conditions and gets the nod.
3:35 – Betfair “Free Racing Multiple Today” Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f
Eleven are set to go to post for an intriguing looking handicap chase.
Famous Bridge showed that he’s on a winnable mark when finishing a ¾ length 4th of 10 at Ayr (2m 4 ½ f) three weeks ago. That was the 7-year-old’s first run for 8 months and if he hadn’t made a crucial mistake at the last might well have made a winning seasonal return. The return to further suits, stays 3m and has the scope for further progress over fences.
There was plenty to like about Docpickedme’s first run for new trainer Richard Hobson when finishing a head 2nd of 7 to Enqarde at Warwick 17 days ago. That was just his sixth start over fences and he jumped noticeably well. Provided he didn’t have too hard a race, he can go close off 3lb higher. The yard has a good record with its runners at Haydock – 5 winners from 12 runners 42% +15.25 in the last five years.
Wasdell Dundalk has been running well over the Summer and completed a Perth hat trick at the end of September. He’s remained in form on two starts since and posted a career best on RPR’s when 2nd of 11 at Carlisle (soft) 20 days ago. Admirably consistent and tough but has been nudged up a further 2lb since last time.
Venetia Williams saddled a mare to win last year’s renewal, so you have to respect her runner Eleanor Bob. The mare made most when winning handicap chases at Chepstow & Huntingdon early in 2022. She goes well on soft ground and if ready to roll after a 625 day absence isn’t handicapped out of things.
Coconut Splash is a 13 race maiden over fences, but the 8-year-old looks on a good mark on the best of his form over the larger obstacles. Hasn’t run too badly on either start since returning from a summer break and isn’t totally discounted here.
Verdict: I wouldn’t put anyone off likely favorite, Famous Bridge. Among the 11 runners, he seems to have the most scope for improvement over the fences. Keep an eye on Eleanor Bob, a Venetia Williams contender—who saddle last year’s winner and could shake things up if she’s ready to roll after a long break. Docpickedme was a close-up second at Warwick in his seasonal comeback, and if this race doesn’t come too soon, looks like the biggest threat to the favorite.
Ascot
ITV are covering three races live from Ascot this afternoon. The best quality contest is the Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase (1:30) which previous C&D winner Shishkin take on just three rivals on his return to action. His nearest on Official Ratings is Pic D’Orhy who was well beaten by Shishkin in a Grade 1 over C&D in February and like Shishkin is making his seasonal return today. It will be a big shock if Shishkin can’t win this and stay on track for the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Goshen won the Grade 2 Coral Hurdle 12 months ago and has been installed the bookies early bid favourite for this year’s renewal. Just five have been declared but the line-up does look a bit stronger than last year. If the going is good, then Theatre Glory could win has to be respected. Also, Strong Leader runner-up to Inthepocket in the Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last April is surely better than he was able to show at Ffos Las on his return and is another potential winner.
3:15 – Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 1f
We have a strong favourite in dual C&D winner Boothill but all eight runners have claims in competitive little contest.
Top weight Boothill won this corresponding race 12 months ago and a handicap case over C&D last month. He’s 6lb higher here but C&D clearly suits him and he’s the one to beat.
Saint Segal was a six length third to Boothill last time. The 5-year-old is capable of better over the larger obstacles and with a 6lb pull must be strongly considered.
Corrigeen Rock ended last season with a win at Perth and started this season with a win at Kempton. I’m not sure the slight drop back in trip is helpful but the 6-year-old is going the right way, jumps well and a 7lb rise might not prevent the hat trick.
Frere D’Armes was 14 length fifth behind Boothill that day. He looks on a handy mark on the best of last season’s form and will surely win race this winter.
Funambule Sivola was a 20 length sixth behind Boothill. He ran well for a long way and probably needed the run more than those who finished in front of him. He’s a previous C&D winner and should get closer here but may find that several rivals are better treated.
Triple Trade posted a career best when winning at Cheltenham 8 days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success but he’s going the right way and is equally effective going right handed.
Malystic won three handicap chases last season including a valuable pot at Ayr (good) in April. He was well below his best on his return to action at Kelso last month is better than that. Drying ground suits and he’s another in with a chance.
Aucunrisque made all to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury earlier in the year and prior to that had finished a length second to Boothill in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton. Taking that form literally he would have to have claims as he’s 11lb better off with that one here.
Verdict: Boothill is on the up, especially shining over C&D and he’s the top pick for the win.Now, Saint Segal is still a bit of a mystery over fences but pulled off a solid third behind Boothill in the last run.If you’re aBoothill fan, you’ve got to give a nod to Aucunrisque too. This one seems nicely treated based on last year’s performance with Boothill and should be all the better for a recent spin over hurdles. Triple Trade is a progressive handicap chaser whose latest win came at Cheltenham 8 days ago. Provided this race doesn’t come too quick a 5lb penalty shouldn’t prevent another big performance.
Betting Advice:
Haydock
1:15 – Fingal’s Hill – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:20 – Bold Endeavour – 1pt win – 22/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and Howlingmadmurdock – 1pt win – 25/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:35 – Docpickedme – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365
Ascot
3:15 – Triple Trade – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral.
There may be some selections on Sunday so watch your inboxes for updates.
Cheers
John