Hi all,
The Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20), one of the highlights of the early months of the jumps season. It’s also the highlight of Day 2 of Cheltenham’s November Meeting.
ITV Racing are covering four races from Cheltenham and the two Listed races from Lingfield’s all weather card this afternoon.
As ever I’m looking at all six of the ITV races. But I also have selections from a race on the Cheltenham card that isn’t on ITV.
Cheltenham
It was good to soft on Friday at Cheltenham but they could get 10mm of rain overnight and on Saturday morning so the ground will be closer to soft come race time if they do get that volume of rain.
1:10 – Wienerberger Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 1f
Not one of the races live on ITV4 this afternoon and its amateur riders which I normally would swerve but I really like the look of the race with a maximum field of 20 set to the lineup.
Mole Court was a modest hurdler, but he’s looked a different horse since going over fences in May winning his last four starts, the latest of them coming in an amateur rider’s handicap chase over C&D last month. A 5lb rise demands more progress from the 6-year-old but there’s a good chance he can step forward again. Good to soft ground should be fine for him but he probably would want it much softer. Trainer & jockey combined to win this race 12 months ago.
Strictlyadancer won this corresponding race two years ago.The 9-year-old caught the eye on his seasonal return at Chepstow last month before coming from behind to finish a 1 ¾ length 4th of 19 to Mole Court over C&D last month. He gets a handy 4lb pull in the weights from the winner and is entitled to finish much closer albeit he doesn’t have the scope for improvement that one has. I don’t know anything about his jockey, but I do know the horse is weighed to win if he’s not held up as far back as last time. Probably wouldn’t want the ground to soft though.
Wayfinder seemed to lose his way after winning on his seasonal return last October. However, there was more to like about his seasonal return effort here last month when a 5 ¼ length 3rd of 13 to The Whacker Clan over C&D last month. His jumping was much more assured that day and if he can build on that performance, he won’t be far away with Gina Andrews taking over in the saddle.
Manofthepeople won his first two starts over fences last season both on good ground. Seemingly not suited by testing ground at Newbury in March and was pulled up (9/1) in the Scottish Grand National on his final start. The 8-year-old was very much back to form when a neck 2nd of 11 at Exeter on his seasonal reappearance 25 days ago. Remains unexposed over fences, just five starts, and although he’s 4lb higher here the first time cheekpieces could eke out further improvement. Connections will be hoping the rain stays away.
Tea Clipper has become a well handicapped horse and is now 9lb lower than when finishing a 2 ½ length 3rd of 13 at Ascot (3m) last October. Made an encouraging return to action when a 6 length 2nd of 7 to Stolen Silver at Chepstow last month. A strong traveller, he’s not the strongest of finishers and may prefer quicker ground but can’t be ruled out.
Verdict: One of the most competitive races on the Cheltenham card. The amount of overnight rain is likely to have an impact on the outcome of this race. The drying ground would suit Mole Court but the five timer isn’t out of the question. If Wayfinder can build on his first time out effort, which he didn’t do last season, he’s got a serious chance. I’m loathed to let Strictlyadancer go unbacked although I know nothing about his jockey. The first time cheekpieces could galvanise Manofthepeople and he remains unexposed over fences. Tea Clipper has tumbled down the weights and isn’t out of it.
1:45 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase (Listed Race) – 3m ½ f
Just the six runners. Mister Coffey hasn’t won any of his nine starts over fences. He’s got the ability to win but at 11/4 I can happily let him do so. Useful handicap hurdler Good Risk At All made a winning start to his chase career at Carlisle 23 days ago. He prefers soft ground and if there’s enough juice in the ground can win again.
Verdict: Mister Coffey won’t have a better chance to gain a first success over fences. If the ground is soft enough, I’m going with Good Risk At All. If it’s not, then it could Mister Coffey’s day.
2:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 2m 4f
Fourteen will line up for the big betting race of the day and there are five on my shortlist.
Angels Breath was a smart novice chaser for Nicky Henderson, winning his first two starts in 2019/2020. Returned from a mammoth 1121 day break with a couple of runs earlier in the year for new trainer Sam Thomas (same ownership). Clearly not the easiest to keep sound but there was plenty of encouragement to be taken from his 4 ¾ length 2nd of 16 here over hurdles last month.
Given the form of the Venetia Williams handicap chasers you have to keep Easy As That on side. The 8-year-old won two of his four starts over fences last season. Ran like something was amiss when last of five at Sandown in March. Likely on a good mark on his seasonal return and a big player.
It will be some effort if The Real Whacker can win this under top weight on his seasonal reappearance, but he could do. Deserves his weight given he ended last season with a win in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Bids to become the first top weight to win this since Al Ferof in 2012.
Fugitif looked an ideal type for this race when a 2 length 2nd of 23 in the Plate Handicap Chase here in March. He’s been nudged up 4lb for that effort which makes life tougher, but I think he won’t be far away especially with ease in the ground. I was hoping trainer Richard Hobson would put some cheekpieces on the 8-year-old and he has.
Torn And Frayed is 1lb out of the handicap and we haven’t seen the 9-year-old since he won a Grade 3 Handicap Chase here on Trials Day in January 2022. He’s only 4lb higher and is weighted to be competitive. It will be some training feat to win this off a 658 day layoff though and Sam Twiston-Davies stays loyal to The Real Whacker rather than ride for his father.
Verdict: It may not be the biggest field, but this year’s race doesn’t lack depth. Top weight The Real Whacker is a genuine Gold Cup contender but it’s a big ask to win this on his seasonal return, but you never know. Angels Breath is a fragile horse but shaped with encouragement over hurdles here last time and he’s not weighted out of this. The addition of the first time cheekpieces for Fugitf means he’s high on my shortlist. The form of the Venetia Williams yard means Easy As That has to be on your radar. I think he starts the new campaign on a handy mark and if he handles the track shouldn’t be far away. Finally, I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the claims of Torn And Frayed. He does well around here and although he returns from a long absence the yard has a good record in the race.
2:55 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m
Looking at Racing Post Ratings Placenet could be well treated off a mark of 124 on his first start for David Pipe. The 6-year-old who was an eight time winner over hurdles/chases when trained in France and will like soft ground. Trainer won this race in 2014.
Irish challenger Buddy One made it 2 from 11 over hurdles when landing a 15 runner handicap hurdle (2m 6f) at Galway three weeks ago. He’s going the right way and won’t be far away if staying 3m which he should do. Solid claims and high on the shortlist.
Noble Birth is another Irish trained runner whose got claims at bigger odds. Twice a winner over hurdles when trained by Gordon Elliott. The 6-year-old fared better than his stable debut when a ¾-length 2nd of 9 at Ayr 14 days ago. He’s been nudged up 3lb for last time but the first time cheekpieces make him of interest.
Verdict: Ex French recruit Placenet could be a very well handicapped on his first start in Britain. His biggest rivals may turn out to be Irish challengers Buddy One & Noble Birth who both come into the race in good form.
3:30 – Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 5f
Just the nine line up for the final race on ITV but the conditions of the race normally means it doesn’t attract a big field.
Resplendent Glory won his first two starts over hurdles at Wetherby and Perth in April and returned to action with an improved 9 ½ length 2nd of 7 to Captain Teague in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (2m 3 ½ f) at Chepstow last month. Has definite claims although his stamina for 2m 5f must be taken on trust.
Gyenyame, a winner of a Wincanton maiden hurdle in February made a solid seasonal reappearance when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 12 back at Wincanton 20 days ago. Up 3lb and in a better race but should go well again.
Top weight Springwell Bay won three of his five starts in productive novice hurdle campaign last season. Not disgraced when a 17 length 6th of 14 to Irish Point in a Garde 1 at Aintree on his final start. Back in calmer water on seasonal return and has a good chance on an easy surface.
Irish challenger Londonofficecallin is more exposed than the other three, but he gained a second success over hurdles since joining his present yard this year when beating 14 rivals at Killarney last month. The 6-year-old wouldn’t want the ground to get too soft and is 3lb out of the handicap but given his present vein form can’t be ruled out.
Verdict: Despite the small number of runners, it remains a tricky little puzzle. If Resplendent Glory stays, he looks the most likely winner. Gyenyame comes into the race in good form and has a good chance. As does Irish challenger Londonofficecallin.
Lingfield
2:36 – Bet UK Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
Foxes Tales was a strong finishing 3 ½ length 3rd of 8 to Lord North in the Group 3 Winter Derby over C&D in February and then went onto win a Listed race at Kempton (1m 2f). Below his best in two starts on turf since. Back from a 151 day lay off here but goes well fresh. Has a good chance back on the all-weather if on a going day.
Blue Trail won two of his first four starts on the all-weather as a 3-year-old. He looked much improved when making all to win a valuable Meydan handicap in February. Nowhere near that level of form when a 9 lengths 5th of 7 to a stablemate in a Group 3 at Newmarket in April and returns for the first time since. Seems likely to get an uncontested lead and if he does, he could be hard to peg back like at Meydan.
Verdict: Foxes Tales hasn’t always been the most reliable of horses in the past, but I think he’s better suited by all-weather and turf and must be respected on a return from a break. Native Trial is also returning from a break and his rivals can’t allow him an uncontested lead if they do he’ll be hard to pass.
3:11 – Bet UK Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f
Mischief Magic won last season’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Keeneland. The 3-year-old disappointed on to starts on turf this summer but got his career back on track when winning a Kempton conditions race (6f) last month. He needs to take another step forward to win this but could easily do so.
Willem Twee was another to get back on track when winning a Kempton handicap (6f) 17 days ago. That was a clear best career performance from the 4-year-old. He looked like a Group sprinter in a handicap that day and connections missed the Sprint Series Final to come here. He’s very much respected here and is likely capable of better than he’s shown so far.
Kinta was a useful juvenile last season, winning her first two starts over C&D and at Kempton. Highly tried after but ended her juvenile season with two below par efforts. In need of the run on her first start for 338 days/wind surgery at Chelmsford in September but returned to winning ways just 7 days later in a Newmarket handicap. Looked better than ever at Newmarket in the first time hood (retained) and on RPR’s is very much in the mix stepped back up class.
Tacarib Bay bounced back to winning ways when landing a Newcastle Listed race (6f) last Saturday. That was the first time the 4-year-old had run at a sprint trip since his juvenile debut. It’s a quick turnaround and on a different surface but if he can reproduce last week’s performance here, he won’t be far away.
Verdict: This looks like a cracking renewal of the race with four of the 11 runners holding strong claims. Mischief Magic was back to form at Kempton last time and if he builds on that performance probably wins. That said he’s plenty short enough and I can take him on. The drop back to 6f suited Tacarib Bay at Newcastle last Saturday. Different track and round bend today but he can’t be ruled out. Willem Twee was back to winning ways at Kempton last time and remains with potential for further improvement. Kinta was also a last time out winner. It was only handicap she won at Newmarket but she’s not of this on ratings and looks set for a big run.
Betting Advice:
I have selections from Cheltenham and Lingfield. In the end I sided with Mole Court and Strictlyadancer in the 1:10 although neither would the ground to get to testing.
I have struggled to justify going with three in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2:20) but I can’t really separate Angels Breath, Fugitif and Easy As That.
I’m going with the David Pipe runner Placenet in the handicap hurdle (2:55) but that was a close run thing with Irish challenger and top-weight Buddy One.
Over at Lingfield I’m taking on favourite Mischief Magic with Kinta & Willem Twee.
Cheltenham
1:10 – Mole Court – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 and Strictlyadancer – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power
2:20 – Angels Breath – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Fugitif – 1pt win -11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Easy As That – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:55 – Placenet – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Lingfield
3:11 – Kinta – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and Willem Twee – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
At the time of writing none of the above prices are BOG. If you want BOG with Ladbrokes and Coral they will be available from 8am on Saturday morning.
Cheers
John