Hi all,
It’s Paddy Power Gold Cup Day at Cheltenham on Saturday. With the big race one of the big race highlights of the autumn. Those four days in March also get a look in as there are also Triumph Hurdle and Arkle trials on the seven race card.
The ITV cameras are covering another four races live from Cheltenham this afternoon. Plus, two races from Lingfield’s all-weather card: The Golden Rose Stakes (2:35) and the Churchill Stakes (3:10).
Inside today’s main piece I concentrate on the action on ITV from Cheltenham and Lingfield. As ever Saturday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the preview.
Cheltenham November Meeting – Day 2
Celotex Thermaclass Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (1:10)
Not on ITV but an interesting contest nonetheless despite being an amateur rider’s race. Valsheda looks to have a favourites chance. The 7-year-old ended last season with a win at Ffos Las in March. He’s a big chasing type who looks like a real stayer in the making. A mark of 129 looks more than workable on his seasonal return for a yard in excellent form. Anightinlambourn has been in good form this summer winning twice at Worcester before proving her stamina for 3m 1f when a ½ length 2nd of 20 over C&D last month. The drying ground brings her very much into the mix once more.
Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (1:45)
Just the seven for this Grade 2 contest which was won by Put The Kettle on in 2019 before that mare went onto Arkle success at the festival. Despite the numbers it looks a potentially good race. Tommy’s Oscar progressed into a high class hurdler last season and beat his sole rival on chase debut at Carlisle last month. There’s no reason why the 7-year-old can’t be as good over fences as hurdles.
Banbridge won the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at the festival in March. And the 6-year-old made all to win on chase debut at Gowran Park last month. He jumped well that day and looks like a smart novice chasing prospect. A sound surface suits, and he’s got strong claims.
Pentland Hills, the 2019 Triumph Hurdle winner, returned from a mammoth 927-day lay off to win on the flat at Haydock in September. Walked over on his chase debut at Huntingdon and is another contender.
Monimiral makes his chase debut for Paul Nicholls. A smart hurdler at his best. The 5-year-old must be respected on chase debut for a yard that won this race in 2013 &2015. Not sure he should be favourite though.
Glory And Fortune developed into a very useful handicap hurdler last season winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and finishing 5th in the Champion Hurdle. Decent run when 4th of 5 at Ffos Las over timber last month. However, he didn’t look natural over fences on a couple of starts two seasons back.
Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2:20)
Looking at the trends. All the last fourteen winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup shared the following traits:
Age: 5yo to 9yo.
Odds SP: 25/1 & under.
Highest Class Run: Grade 1, Grade 2, Grade 3 or Listed.
Runs at the Track: 2+.
Stolen Silver has solid claims to give Sam Thomas a third big Saturday handicap chase success. The 7-year-old ticks all the trends’ boxes and won here in April. He’s also won fresh, so the 213 day layoff shouldn’t be a problem.
Coole Cody and Storm Control should ensure a good gallop which will suit hold up horses Il Ridoto and Ga Law. I’m not sure the track will suit the former, but Ga Law will appreciate the drying ground and who was an eyecatching third in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. That was his first start for 20 months. He’s look on a good mark provided the dreaded ‘bounce’ doesn’t come into play looks to have a good chance.
I’m sweet on the claims of the David Pipe trained Umbrigado but like Ga Law he fails the 2+ course runs trend. All the last 14 winners of the race had 2+ starts at Cheltenham to their success here. Galahad Quest was 5th in last year’s race but finds winning hard.
The only horse that ticks all the trends that I didn’t mention on Wednesday is Happygolucky. We haven’t seen the 8-year-old since he won a valuable handicap chase (3m 1f) at Aintree in April 2021. He’s won here in the past and is 3-3 on good to soft ground. A strong pace will bring his stamina into play. Granted 2m 4f looks on the short side but he’s classy and has a good profile for the race.
Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (2:55)
Recent C&D winner Shearer heads the betting. The 6-year-old is unexposed over 3m and could be capable of better over hurdles’ Given his present vein of form has to be high on the shortlist.
On The Blind Side is smart staying hurdler who won this race in 2020 on seasonal return, off 1lb higher. Granted he’s a 10-year-old now but he showed on his seasonal return last year that he was still capable of high class form.
Padleyourowncanoe didn’t really build on the promise of his 5 ¾ length 3rd of 12 at Haydock on seasonal return and first start for Dan Skelton last December. However. He’s now 12lb lower and well treated if returning at his best.
Fontana Ellissi is a consistent handicap hurdler who improved for his Worcester seasonal return when a 5 ½ length 2nd of 13 here (2m 4f) last month. Looks worth a go at 3m and isn’t easily dismissed if the longer trip brings about a bit more improvement.
Lisnagar Oscar isn’t the same horse as when winning 2022 Stayers Hurdle, indeed that remains the 9-year-old’s last win. Plenty to prove on return but Rob James takes off 7lb and he’s clearly well handicapped if bouncing back something his best form.
Lingfield
There are two races on ITV from Lingfield this afternoon.
Bet UK Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (2:35)
Harry’s Bar will be suited by the return to 6f and provided they go a decent gallop shouldn’t be far away if at his best. Previous C&D winner Summerghand is another who appreciates a good pace to chase. The Ayr Gold Cup winner was a good 2nd of 13 to Rohaan in a Group 3 at Ascot last month and shouldn’t be far away.
Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (3:10)
A few in with a chance in this 1m 2f contest. Six of the last 14 winners of the race were 3-year-olds which brings Missed The Cut into the mix. He completed the hat trick when winning the Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot. Below his best in a Deauville Group 2 in August but is interesting if returning to his best on all-weather debut.
Algiers won Group 3 on the dirt in Dubai in the winter. He returned from a 7 month layoff to win a York handicap last month, but the 5-year-old wasn’t in the same form in a Newmarket Listed race two weeks ago. Hopes pinned on a returning to the synthetics
The Gosden yard won this in 2019 & 2020, and they have a couple of contenders in Harrovian and Forest Of Dean. The former was a ½ length 2nd of 10 in last year’s race and has serious claims of going one place better this time around. Forest Of Dean like his stablemate returns from a break. A previous C&D winner her gets the first time cheekpieces and shouldn’t be far away if returning at his best.
The most fascinating contender is the Aidan O’Brien trained Bolshoi Ballet. A smart 3-year-old he’s been off for 11 months, but he won first time up as a 3-year-old. The colt gets the first time blinkers for his first start on the polytrack and a big run should be forthcoming.
Evania looks to have plenty to do on official ratings, but she is 2-2 on the all-weather including 1-1 over C&D.
Best of the rest
Naas
Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) (1:30)
Wellington Hill looks like a future chaser in the making but he also looks a decent prospect over timber. The 6-year-old got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a Gowran Park maiden last month. He’s capable of more improvement on handicap hurdle debut and Kieran Callaghan takes off a useful 7lb.
The softer the ground the better for Damalisque. The 9-year-old is just 2lb higher than winning over today’s 2m 4f trip at Navan in January 2021. He returned from a 5 month absence with a promising enough effort when 21 ¼ length 9th of 16 at Galway two weeks ago. Only 6th of 18 in last year’s corresponding race but didn’t have the benefit of a recent run that day. He should be sharper for his Galway run and the yard did saddle the winner of this in 2019.
Jiving Jerry was runner-up last year. He’s only had one start since when 8th of 16 at Galway (2m) in July. Not sure what’s kept the 7-year-old off the track but he’s done well in the autumn in the past and isn’t handicapped out of this if returning at his best.
Betting Advice:
Cheltenham
1:10 – Anightinlambourn – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365
2:20 – Stolen Silver – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and Happygolucky – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral
2:55 – On The Blind Side – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral and Padleyourowncanoe – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Naas
1:30 – Damalisque – 0.5pts each way – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places)
There will be selections on Sunday from the final day of Cheltenham’s November Meeting.
Cheers
John