Hi all,
Aintree’s Grand National Course passed a Friday morning inspection so Saturday’s Grand Sefton can be run over the National Fences. Eleven are set to go to post for the Aintree feature and although field sizes are much better than they were at this time last year. I sense a reluctance from some of the bigger trainers to risk their better horses on very testing ground. You can understand why. Would you really want a horse to have to hard a race at such an early stage in the season when they have bigger prizes in mind.
ITV racing are covering the best of the action from Aintree, Wincanton and Newcastle where the November Handicap rescheduled from Doncaster is the feature race of an eight race card.
Down Royal
Just four have been declared for the best quality race on Saturday the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal (2:20). However, the four are Gerri Colombe, Conflated, Minella Indo and last year’s winner Envoi Allen.
It’s race that might be short on numbers but certainly not quality and its an intriguing one. It’s a case of Gordon Elliott versus Henry De Bromhead as the two trainers train the four runners.
Former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo made a winning seasonal return at Punchestown last month. He looks the main pace angle with Conflated likely to be close-up. Top novice chaser Gerri Colombe was installed the bookies the ante post favourite. The Gold Cup second favourite has clear claims. However, will trainer Gordon Elliott want the 7-year-old to have too hard a race on his return to action. I’m not so sure. By the end of the season, I expect him to be the best of the four but maybe not on Saturday.
Envoi Allen loves Down Royal four wins from four runs, and this is his Gold Cup. If Rachel Blackmore can get the 9-year-old into a nice rhythm, like she did last year, I think he can defend his crown. That said I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the four one.
In today’s preview and due to time constraints, I have concentrated on those races where I have selections.
Wincanton
It’s soft, good to soft in places at the Somerset track but Friday and Saturday were both set to be dry so the going could have flipped come race time.
1:15 – Boodles Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4f
You can make cases for Huelgoat who’s career best RPR came over C&D last Boxing Day. Trainer Paul Nicholls has won this race three time since 2016 and had four winners at last year’s meeting.
Another Crick is a previous course winner and won at Warwick in May. Up 5lb but has to be considered for a yard who had a winner at Ludlow on Thursday.
At the bottom weights you have Enjoy Your Life and Flagrant Delitiep. The first named hails from the inform Venetia Williams stable. The 6-year-old was a winning hurdler/chaser when trained in France. Three low key efforts over the smaller obstacles in the spring for present yard but must be respected back over fences given the yard’s form. Flagrant Delitiepis a dual C&D winner and returned from a summer break with an encouraging 6 ¾ length 4th of 7 at Plumpton 19 days ago. Down to a winnable mark and must have a big chance for a yard that had a winner at Exeter on Friday.
1:50 – Boodles ‘Rising Stars’ Novices’ Chase – 2m 4f
Knappers Hill proved a smart hurdler last season winning three times including the Elite Hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago. The 7-year-old made a promising chasing debut when a 2 ¾ length second of 4 in a Listed novice chase at Chepstow last month. He has the potential to do well in the novice chase division this season and is the one to beat. Irish challenger Captain Conby looks his biggest rival. He’s already had two starts over fences winning the first of them at Killarney before chasing home Sharjah in a Grade 3 at Tipperary last time. The drying ground will suit and he could take advantage should the favourite underperform.
2:25 – 62nd Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 1f
Frodon last year’s winner looks set to defend his crown. The 10-year-old who is likely to be in his final season before retirement from racing carried top weight to success 12 months on his seasonal return. He’s got a great record fresh 5 wins from 7 runs +12.69 when returning from a 121 to 365 day layoff. He’s back down to last year’s winning mark when he won by 2 ½ lengths and trainer will have primed him for this race. This is his Gold Cup and although it will likely be much softer than 12 months ago, he goes on rain softened ground. He was returned 9/4 favourite last year and the 7/2 available with William Hill looks fair value to me.
Frodon’s stablemate Threeunderthrufive is just ahead of him in the ante post betting. Threeunderthrufive is having his first start since finishing a 6 ¼ length 4th of 18 in the Scottish Grand National. The 8-year-old has undergone wind surgery over the summer and is likely a bit better than his current mark.
The Big Breakaway started last season in good form and finished a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 17 in the Welsh Grand National. The softer the ground the better for the 8-year-old who must be respected on his seasonal return for a yard among the winners.
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has four of the 16 entries. I like both Sam Brown and Blackjack Magic. The first named was in the lead and travelling best in the first time blinkers before falling two out in a handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. He can go well fresh and would be on the shortlist if turning out here. Blackjack Magic is three years younger than his stablemate and has only had four starts over fences. He jumped well out in front when winning at Uttoxeter in April and is just 4lb higher here. Would have a nice light weight here. However, all his four career wins have come on soft or heavy ground so drying ground would be a slight concern.
I’m giving the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle (3:00) a miss. The one I liked wasn’t declared on Thursday so it’s onto the final race on ITV4.
3:32 – JenningsBet Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2)
Lime Avenue, trained by Paul Nicholls, returns for the first time since winning a novice hurdle over C&D in February. Has had wind surgery since last season in action and she looks the one to beat on handicap debut, if ready to roll after her layoff.
Top weight Ilovethenightlife won a Grade 2 Mares only handicap hurdle (soft) at Newbury in March. Struggled on quick ground when only 5th of 8 at Cheltenham in April. Better expected back on easy ground and likely to go well.
Plenty Of Time won a chase here 25 days ago and the lightly raced 6-year-old can’t be ruled out back over timber.
You can’t rule out a Venetia Williams runner at present, so you must respect her ex-French recruit Ostrava Du Berlais who has a light weight on her first start for the trainer.
Good Luck Charm didn’t run to badly over fences on six starts last season albeit she didn’t look a natural over fences. Back over hurdles on her seasonal reappearance and she’s 5lb below her last winning mark. Trainer won this corresponding race in 2015.
Aintree
ITV Racing are taking two races from Aintree this afternoon. The first of them is the BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2). The second is a three runner hurdle race which makes no appeal to me and given there are two better handicaps earlier on the card I’m surprised that the broadcaster hasn’t switched races. If you want to increase betting turnover, you don’t cover a race like this which doesn’t even have Graded status.
2:45 – BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f
Although it’s been dry at Aintree on Friday and will be tomorrow Its still likely to be testing ground at for the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase.
Gesskille finished runner-up in last year’s and occupied the same position in the Becher Chase (3m 2f) over the National Fences. Won a Listed Chase at Auteuil 53 days ago. Handicapped to go one place better than 12 months ago and is worthy market leader.
Percussion like Gesskille placed in both this race (5lb higher) and the Becher Chase last season. He pulled up at Cheltenham when last seen in action in April. This has likely been the target once more and he shouldn’t be far away.
Top weight Fantastic Lady won first time up last season and posted a career best when an excellent 1 ¾ length 2nd of 29 in the Topham Chase over the National fences in April. Might be better over a further but can’t be discounted on return.
At the bottom of the weights, you have to take seriously the claims of Yccs Portocervo and Half Shot. The former was in winning form at Uttoxeter in May & June. He’s up 7lb for the latest win which is probably workable, and the trainer was successful in this in 2020 so knows what’s required to win. Half Shot won his first two start over fences last season and developed into a useful handicap chaser. He ended last season with a solid 14 length 7th of 18 in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr (7lb out of the weights). Looked as good as ever when a head 2nd of 5 at Kelso last month. A good jumper, these fences could suit him and if they do, he’s handicapped to be competitive.
Frero Banbou is down below his last winning mark and his yard has made an excellent start to November. Had been shaping like a step up to 2m 4f would really suit but seemed like a non-stayer when 12th of 23 Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Looks worth another try at the trip.
Newcastle
There are three races live on ITV this afternoon and they include the November Handicap.
The Listed Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (1:30) could be heading back to Newmarket. Charlie Appleby brings up Veil Of Shadows. The 3-year-old is proven on the tapeta surface, and the daughter of Frankel produced a career best effort when a 2 lengths 2nd of 11 in the Group 3 Pride Stakes at Newmarket last month. Mukaddamah was well behind Veil Of Shadows at Newmarket but was a good 2 ½ length 2nd of 14 to another Charlie Appleby trained filly in a Listed race at Yarmouth two starts back. One from one on the tapeta she’s better than she was able to show last time and a return to this surface could see her get much closer this afternoon.
Sense Of Duty looked a Group 1 sprinter in the making when winning the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes over C&D last summer. She hasn’t been at her best on either starts since returning from a 455 day layoff. Hopefully a return to this surface will see her return to her previous progressive ways in the Listed Wentworth Stakes (2:05).
3:45 – Virgin Bet November Handicap – 1m 4 ½ f
My long term fancy for the race didn’t get declared. Looking at the race its not one I’m really getting excited about. I’m concentrating on three at the front end of the betting.
Local Dynasty was in decent form earlier in the summer finishing 3rd of 15 in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot and then 2½ lengths 4th of 12 at Newmarket when last seen in action in July. First start at 1m 4f for the 3-year-old and he’s been gelded. All-weather debut here but his dam won on the polytrack and dirt at Meydan so should handle the surface.
Chillingham a winner on seasonal return at Thirsk in April and looked a handicap winner in waiting when a head 2nd of 7 at Ripon in July. A good 4th of 14 at Hamilton 78 days ago he’s placed on the tapeta at Southwell and is one to seriously consider with the tongue tie on for the first time/
Teumessias Fox is 2-4 on the all-weather and won here (1m 2f) last year. Had looked set for a good season when winning at Kempton and following up at Newmarket in the spring. A respectable 3 ¾ length 5th of 12 at Windsor when dropped back to 1m 2f last time and is weighted to be in the mix.
Of those at bigger odds to consider. You will probably do worse than look at Prydwen. The 5-year-old was well beaten on heavy ground in last year’s race. But he’s a dual winner on the tapeta at Wolverhampton and a reproduction of his head second 2nd of 11 at Ayr in June wouldn’t see him thereabouts. Gets the first time cheekpieces and could get into the frame at big odds.
Betting Advice:
Wincanton
1:15 – Flagrant Delitiep – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Blackjack Magic – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Sam Brown – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:32 – Ilovethenightlife – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Aintree
2:45 – Percussion – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newcastle
3:45 – Prydwen – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Chillingham – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
There could be more selections on Sunday. If there are, I will do a preview so watch your inboxes for updates. But if there aren’t any, I will see you all sometime next week.
Cheers
John