Hi all,
It’s Coronation weekend in the United Kingdom but more importantly for me the first English Classics. Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of the action on ITV this afternoon.
Today’s it’s the Qipco 2,000 Guineas (4:40). Due to the Coronation of King Charles III this year’s race is set to go off at 4:40. Mind you we should be thankful that racing didn’t cancel itself to honour the new sovereign.
ITV4 are covering five races live from Newmarket and one each from Goodwood and Thirsk on a seven race programme on Saturday afternoon. I have previewed all seven of the ITV races inside today’s main piece.
Newmarket
It was good to firm, good in places at Newmarket on Thursday afternoon. However, there is enough rain forecast to suggest that ground could be closer to good on Saturday.
The feature race is of course the first colts classic with fourteen being declared for the race on Thursday and it’s there that I start today’s preview. As ever Saturday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece. Although I recommend that you read all the race previews.
Qipco 2,000 Guineas (4:40)
Auguste Rodin, trained by Aidan O’Brien is the ante post favourite first colts classic. The son of Deep Impact ended last season with a taking success in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity at Doncaster Stablemate Little Big Bear looked an aeroplane when comfortably winning the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh last August. We didn’t see the colt after that win due to a setback. Will the son of No Nay Never get Newmarket’s stiff mile? If he does, he may have too much speed for his stablemate. I’m not convinced he will stay though.
If favourite Auguste Rodin wins here will be on course to land the 2.000 Guineas/Derby Double and who knows maybe, he can be become the first horse since Nijinsky to land the Triple Crown. He’s been strong in the betting this week compared to stablemate Little Big Bear. Although the latter at 11/2 is starting to look a good price. If you disagree with me and feel he will stay that 11/2 is going to look very big.
Both Sakheer and Noble Style looked exciting juveniles but they have yet to race beyond 6f and like Little Big Bear I have doubts about either staying a stiff mile.
At 13/8 Auguste Rodin looks short enough and if I wasn’t on already, he wouldn’t be for me although he remains my idea of the winner. Royal Scotsman hasn’t yet drifted out to 10/1 but I can see him getting into the places.
Another who could go well at big odds is the talented if not entirely straightforward Holloway Boy. A 5 ¼ length third to Auguste Rodin in the Vertem Futurity. The way he travelled into the race shows he’s got plenty of ability. If only his jockey had gone stands side with him. I don’t think he would have won but he would have finished runner-up. He should get a good tow into the race given there looks to be pace among the horses drawn low. Trainer Karl Burke has booked Christophe Soumillon for the ride which is interesting enough.
Although you shouldn’t really be concerned with the draw in a race like the 2,000 Guineas. Horses drawn in stall’s 1 to 6 are – 9 winners from 89 bets +42.38 23 placed since 2008. Whilst drawn 7 to 14 are – 2 winners from 110 bets -103.12 13 placed.
The Aidan O’Brien pair are drawn next to each other in stalls 12 & 13. Those draw stats don’t really put me off though given the two horses who did defy a high draw were both trained by a certain Aidan O’Brien.
Qipco 2,000 Guineas Verdict: Although I don’t Auguste Rodin represents value at 13/8, he remains the most likely winner. I wouldn’t put you off Royal Scotsman if you fancy him each way nor Holloway Boy.
2:15 – Howden British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f
Michael Dods sets a poser with two runners in Gale Force Maya & Azure Blue and the bookies can’t separate them in the early bird market.
Both are previous C&D winners and although they have a 3lb penalty to carry for last season’s Listed successes. Gale Force Maya wasn’t at her best when a 2 ¼ length 4th of 14 to her stablemate last October and was giving her 4lb. She won first time up last season and if the ground remains on the quick side of good, I can see her finishing of Azure Blue.
Azure Blue is three years younger than her stablemate and did improve in the second half of last season. She’s capable of more progress this year.
Irish challenger Spring Feeling is an interesting runner dropped back to sprinting trips for the first time. She’s only had four starts and races over 6f for the first time. A winner of a Tipperary maiden last August she finished third in a Listed race back at that venue three weeks later.
2:50 – Howden Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Tanmawwy was a mostly progressive sprint handicapper on a sound surface last season. The 5-year-old was back to his best on return from 7 months lay off when a neck 2nd of 15 to Bernardo O’Reilly at Newbury last time. Off the same mark here, better ground will suit and there’s a decent sprint handicap pot in him this season.
Probe, Chairmanoftheboard, Leap Abroad and Admiral D were second, third, fourth & fifth in a C&D handicap at the Craven Meeting. You couldn’t rule out any of them out. Chairmanoftheboard was a 1 ½ length 3rd of 19 Blackrod in the race 12 months ago but he can race off 6lb lower this time around and gets the first time cheekpieces. Admiral D likely needs the rain to arrive but last time was his first start for six months, so he’s entitled to be sharper here and Jamie Spencer looks an ideal jockey booking for the 4-year-old.
Popmaster is handicapped to be competitive. A reproduction of his ¾ length 2nd of 26 in last year’s Wokingham Handicap, from 4lb higher, would see him very much in the mix. He was behind Tanmawwy on his seasonal return at Newbury, but this ground will suit him better.
Blackrod won this 12 months ago for his previous yard from 2lb lower. Not at that level of form on three subsequent starts last season and was only 10th of 12 at Kempton on his stable debut 26-days. Not discounted though with Osin Murphy a good jockey booking.
Raatea is on the same mark as when a 5 ¼ length 7th to Blackrod in this race last year. He didn’t get the run of the race that day and should get closer with a 2lb turnaround in the weights.
Spirit Of Light has been doing most of his running over 7f but he wasn’t disgraced on his only start over 6f when a 3 length 5th of 15 in the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint at Meydan in March. A strongly run 6f and a big field could really suit the 6-year-old who has to be of interest in the first time cheekpieces.
3:25 – Howden Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 1f
Jimi Hendrix responded well to the fitting of the first time blinker when comfortably winning Newbury’s Spring Mile Handicap last month. A 5lb penalty won’t stop him if the headgear continues to have the desired effect but consistency hasn’t been one of his strong points.
Empirestateofmind is a consistent handicapper over a mile and stepped up on his Lincoln Handicap performance when a ½-length 2nd of 13 to Bopedro here over a mile 18-days ago. He can race off the same mark here and today’s extra furlong could suit the 5-year-old.
Saga would be an apt winner for the new King. The 4-year-old best effort last season came when a head 2nd of 30 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. That improved effort came in the first time blinkers which didn’t seem to work on three subsequent starts. A well run race and quick ground look ideal and the first time cheekpieces replace the blinkers on his seasonal return.
Toshizou was one place and 4 lengths behind Empirestateofmind last time. The 5-year-old did best of those who raced down the centre of the track that day. Another who should be suited by today’s intermediate distance and given he’s only had ten career starts he could be capable of better. Jamie Spencer has been booked and he’s high on the shortlist given he could have run in today’s Thirsk Hunt Cup.
Majestic won last year’s Cambridgeshire Handicap over C&D. Up 7lb for his Cambridgeshire success he ran a cracker when a 3 ½ length 4th of 22 to Migration in the Lincoln Handicap. The 5-year-old is lightly raced enough to think he can win again.
Dual Identity a progressive handicapper over a mile & quarter last season. He posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 28 to Majestic in last season’s Cambridgeshire. Given he ran away from the action on the far side in the Cambridgeshire you could mark up that effort. Ground versatile and the 5-year-old shouldn’t be far away if ready to roll after a winter break.
Great Max made an encouraging debut for his new stable when 5 ¼ length 4th of 10 to Jimi Hendrix in Spring Cup at Newbury 14 days ago. He should strip fitter here and better ground will suit him much better.
4:00 – Howden Palace House Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
No less than 17 have been declared for this year’s renewal. You have to go back to 2016 for the last time that race had more than 15 runners and It looks a cracking renewal.
When I looked at this race earlier in the week, I had six on my shortlist and they have all been declared. That makes the puzzle no easier to solve.
Manaccan was the winner of two Listed races at Doncaster & Ascot last autumn before ending his 2022 campaign with a win in a Group 3 at Dundalk. He has to give all his rivals 3lb and more here but the 4-year-old could do even better this season and indeed might be a Group 1 performer.
Twilight Calls won a C&D handicap on his seasonal return last April and improved again when a head 2nd of 10 in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock and occupying the same spot behind Nature Strip in the Group 1 King Stand at Royal Ascot. He should get the strong pace he needs and there is a nice pot in the 5-year-old when all the cards fall right.
Equality won 5f handicaps at Windsor and Haydock last season and his Haydock success suggests he’s worth his place in pattern company. There could be more to come from him as a 4-year-old and William Buick is 2-3 +13 when combining with trainer Charlie Hills. He won first up last season and the Hills yard saddled last year’s winner.
Tees Spirit progressed through the sprinting ranks last season winning five times over 5f including the Epsom Dash and a Tipperary Listed race in August. He was below his best in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp last time, but the heavy ground wasn’t suitable, and the 5-year-old is much better horse on good or quicker ground as he showed at Tipperary. He’s won first time up for the last two years and looks the best of the outsiders.
Existent was a neck 2nd of 12 in last year’s race but this looks a deeper contest, and he doesn’t have to the advantage of a recent run like he did 12 months ago.
Goodwood
3:05 – William Hill Epic Value Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Sweet Reward shaped like the run was needed when 8th of 15 at Newbury 14-days ago. His last win came here (1m 1f) in September 2021 and can race off the same mark here. Vulnerable to any unexposed rivals but should go well.
Stay Well’s form figures in seasonal return are 12 and he was only beaten a head when runner-up at Kempton last April on his reappearance. A well run 1m 2f looks his optimum trip and given his record fresh he’s got to be respected on his return from a 210 day layoff.
Honiton hasn’t been seen since a disappointing 10th of 13 in a Royal Ascot handicap last June. He was clearly amiss that day and has been gelded since. Unexposed in handicap company and capable of a good run.
Maghlaak ended last season with wins at Kempton and over C&D (soft). Just the three career suggests that the 4-year-old could be better than mark of 86 and he has to be of majore interest on his handicap for yard continuing in good form.
Thirsk
3:40 – Vickers.Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Symbolize, a course winner over 7f wasn’t disgraced, when a 7 ¼ length 4th of 7 here (7f) on stable and seasonal debut. Not the easiest to win when with Andrew Balding but slowly coming down the handicap and should go well.
Skilled Warrior looked like a much improved handicapper when winning a Newcastle handicap on his return to action 23-days ago. A 4lb rise in the handicap isn’t harsh if he can transfer his all-weather form to the turf.
Eilean Dubh a big improver last year, winning four times in the first half of the season. He probably didn’t like heavy ground when well down the field in the Lincoln Handicap last time but he has questions to answer and probably needs quick ground to be at his best.
BillyB ended last season with a win at Southwell (1m). Up 3lb for that success means he’s not weighted out of this. Went close in handicap here (7f) last August and if he’s ready to roll after 190-day break should be competitive.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
2:50 – Tanmawwy – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Chairmanoftheboard – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Spirit Of Light – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:25 – Empirestateofmind – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Toshizou – 1pt win – 22/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:40 – Holloway Boy – 0.5pts each way – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power (both paying 4 places).
Goodwood
3:05 – Stay Well – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Thirsk
3:40 – Billy B – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Cheers
John