Hi all,
The Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (3.35) at Newbury is Saturday’s big race. This year’s renewal doesn’t look the strongest. Which underlines just how uninspiring the older miles are. Of course, we could have one that makes a big step forward in today’s race.
ITV are covering four races from Newbury and three from Newmarket on a seven race programme this afternoon.
Newbury
It was good, good to firm in places at Newbury on Friday morning, but heavy rain was forecast for the course on Friday as much as 5mm which may well have an impact on the going which is a shame as I fancied a few who wanted the ground to stay on the quick side. Finger crossed it doesn’t ease too much as my selections are based on seeing racing on quick ground this afternoon.
1:50 – BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f
Noble Style, 3-3 as a juvenile posted a career best when winning last year’s Gimcrack at York (6f). Ran better than his 5 ½ length 6th of 14 in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. A combination of soft ground and failing to stay a mile found him out that day. He looks like a sprinter and is bred to be a sprinter and he should take the beating back over 6f.
Shaquille made it 4-5 when winning the Newmarket handicap (6f) two weeks ago. He’s going the right way and in a better race he will hopefully settle better than he has done in his races so far. He’s a big player.
Aidan O’Brien’s Aesop’s Fables is the second best of the seven runners on Official Ratings. A winner of his first two juvenile starts the colt hasn’t really kicked on as hoped on subsequent starts. However, a return to quicker ground will hopefully see him back in a better light.
Rabaah has won his last two starts on the all-weather, looking like a colt who will keep improving this season. A half brother to Tanmawwy so there’s no reason why he won’t be just as effective on a sound surface on the turf. Yard won this in 2019 and although this is a big step up in class he could up to the task.
2:25 – Al Rayyan Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
The Charlie Appleby team have the favourite in the first and the favourite here in Yibir. The 50year-old won the Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar in 2021 and finished runner-up in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan last March. We haven’t seen him since he won the Group 2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket last July but good ground suits and he’s 9lb clear of his nearest rival on Official Rating’s. He probably needs a good gallop to be seen at his best, but stablemate Kemari looks the only guaranteed front runner in the line-up but should ensure an even gallop.
Haskoy runner-up in last year’s St Leger (placed 4th after a steward’s enquiry). She just lacked the experience for a Classic in the St Leger, but she remains with potential, to do better still as a 4-year-old.
Israr looked like a potential Group performer when winning a Doncaster last October. Well beaten in the November Handicap but that run is probably best forgiven given it came just two weeks after his win there. He looks capable of better as a 4-year-old.
Old Harrovian returned from a 12 month absence to win a Lingfield novice in April and followed up 7 days later under a penalty at Wolverhampton. He’s clearly going the right way but has plenty to find on ORs with main protagonists. Still, it’s interesting the connections run the lightly raced 4-year-old in a Group race rather than go for a handicap.
3:00 – BetVictor London Gold Cup Heritage Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Sixteen have been declared for what has traditionally been a race which should provide plenty of future winners.
Exoplanet was a respectable 4 length 2nd of 5 to leading Derby hope Military Order on his seasonal return at Newbury last month. The third won at York on Thursday so the form is working out well and although the yard’s form is worry, he’s a leading contender.
Royal Rhyme improved to win a Newmarket handicap (soft) over the distance 13 days ago. He’s got a 10lb rise to contend with here on different ground but looks to be going the right way.
Bertinelli a winner on his second start at Dundalk last November made a promising enough return to action when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 5 to Alder at Cork last month. He looks the sort to progress further with racing and is high on the shortlist.
Loyal Touch gained a second win as a juvenile when winning a Kempton nursery (1m) on his final start of 2022. Bred to do better as a 3-year-old and for the step up to 1m 2f. Hew should be there or thereabouts with Frankie Dettori booked.
Have Secret proved his stamina for 1m 2f when winning a Nottingham nursery on his final juvenile start. Starts the new season off an 8lb higher mark but isn’t out of this if he has improved for a gelding operation.
Desert Hero has been installed as the early bird favourite and HM The King’s colt must be respected on handicap debut. A winner of two of his three starts last season. He looks the sort do better as a 3-year-old.
3:35 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Modern Games won three Group/Grade 1’s last season including the French 2,000 Guineas on his seasonal return. He finished runner-up in a Grade 1 at Keeneland last month and there’s a good chance he can win what looks a weak but open race.
Laurel a winner of her first two starts last season before improving again to finish a ¾-length runner-up in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket on her final start. Made an excellent seasonal return to win a Kempton Listed race last month. Remains an exciting prospect and looks up to winning Group 1 this season.
My Prospero is joint top on Official Ratings with Modern Games. An improving three year-old who finished a close-up third in the St James’ Palace at Royal Ascot. And then ended 2022 with a career best when a ½-length 3rd of 9 to Bay Bridge in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot. Capable of even better this season but does lack race fitness and may prove better over a bit further.
Mutasaabeq got his own way out in front when winning a Group 2 at Newmarket 15-days ago but probably won’t get that set up here. Light Infantry wasn’t as well placed when 3 lengths behind Mutasaabeq on his seasonal return at Newmarket. A stronger gallop will suit, and he must be respected on last season’s neck second to Inspiral in the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last summer.
Triple Time returned from a 12 month absence to win a Group 3 at Haydock last September. He disappointed in a Group 2 at Longchamp the following month when unsuited by the testing ground. Although he’s got plenty to find on ratings he remains with potential and Kevin Ryan runners in Group 1’s shouldn’t be underestimated.
4:10 – BetVictor Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Not on ITV but an interesting enough handicap.
Kingdom Come completed a Kempton hat trick last month. He was withdrawn from last week’s Victoria Cup at Ascot last Saturday due to soft ground. Up 7lb but remains open to plenty of improvement and should be suited by the step up to a mile.
Outbreak was back to winning ways at Newmarket (1m) 15 days ago. A 6lb rise in the weights makes life tougher but he could be capable of better.
Atrium has struggled on heavy/soft ground on his last two starts but he won over C&D last August and can’t be dismissed returned to a sounder surface.
Wanees wasn’t suited by heavy ground when 21st of 22 in the Lincoln Handicap on his seasonal return. The 4-year-old is better judged on improved win at Haydock on his final start of 2022. Likely we haven’t seen the best of him yet and he’s high on the shortlist back on better ground.
Newmarket
2:05 – Acotango improved to win on nursery debut at Kempton on his final juvenile start and looks to have progressed over the winter after his reappearance and length 2nd of 9 to Racingbreaks Ryder in handicap at Haydock three weeks ago. The winner has since gone in again at Ascot as has the third at Newmarket which makes the form look strong.
Ceanna got off the mark at the third attemptat Southwell in December. There should be more to come from the 3-year-old on her turf/handicap debut.
Totnes has won twice already in 2023 after wins at Wolverhampton and latterly Lingfield 16 days ago. Another capable of better if transferring her all-weather from to the grass.
Gulmarg is more exposed than most but he’s consistent and he was a solid 2 ½ lengths 3rd of 15 to Surely Not over C&D last month. Has each way claims once more.
2:40 – Arguably the most competitive race at Newmarket this afternoon.
Washington Heights, a useful juvenile last season on a sound surface was back to his best when a 2 ¾ length 2nd of 8 to the improving Shaquille over C&D two weeks ago. There are races to be won with the gelding off his present mark.
Eminency a winner at Windsor on quick ground last July, looks to have improved over the winter and was unlucky in the run 1 ¼ length 4th of 8 at Kempton last month. Off the same mark as last time and is handicapped to go. close.
Expert Agent has really benefitted from a gelding operation winning all three starts on the all-weather this year. He’s up 4lb for his latest win but produced a nice turn of foot to come from the rear to win at Lingfield last time and if he can reproduce his improved all-weather form on turf, he’s a big contender.
Revenite looked a useful prospect when winning novice races at Ascot and Kempton last September. No reason why he can’t improve as a 3-year-old. Yard’s not in the best of form but he’s capable of doing well on his seasonal return/handicap debut albeit he’s hardly thrown in off a mark of 90.
Mutaany got off the mark at the fifth attempt when making all to win a Brighton novice Isoft) on his final juvenile start. Came up against a much improved performer when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 5 at Nottingham on his seasonal appearance/handicap debut 18 -days ago. Up 2lb but has started the season off what looks a handy mark.
3:15 – Not a race that has got me excited in all truth. Powerdress, a winner here on her juvenile debut last spring was off for 12 months but returned with a solid enough 1 ¾ length 3rd of 9 over C&D in April. Thrown in the deep end in the 1,000 Guineas last time and finished a tailed off last of the 20 runners. She shouldn’t be judged too harshly on that performance, and she remains with potential for better on handicap debut.
Betting Advice
Newbury
1:30 – Rabaah – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Loyal Touch – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Bertinelli – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Triple Time – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
4:10 – Wanees – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newmarket
2:40 – Washington Heights – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Mutaany – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John