Hi all,
An earlier than normal Saturday preview.
It’s Kelso that provides Saturday’ feature meeting. Kelso’s race of the day is the £100,000 Morebattle Handicap Hurdle (3.15) and is Scotland’s most valuable handicap hurdle
At Newbury the feature race of a seven-race card is the Greatwood Gold Cup (1.50). The Newbury undercard also sees the third leg of the Veterans’ Chase Series (1.15).
There’s also a seven-race card at Doncaster. The headline contest is the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3.30), with a Listed mares’ hurdle (2.20) and a valuable 2m½f handicap chase (2.55) adding further interest.
It’s a bumper afternoon of action on ITV though with broadcaster covering the best of the action from Kelso, Newbury, and Doncaster, as part of a nine-race show.
Let’s begin today’s preview at Kelso. My betting advice follows at the end of today’s preview.
Kelso
1:32 – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) – 2m 2f
Richmond Lake and North Lodge arguably bring the best form to the race and deserve their places at the head of the betting.
However, I’m going with the improving Sholokjack who made it 2-2 over hurdles when winning a Wetherby novice hurdle last time. Up in class but handles soft ground and capable of going close.
2:05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5f
Famous Bridge looks to have been given a winnable mark, as he showed last time over C&D. He was travelling like the most likely winner when making a mistake and unseating his rider two out. Open to further progress and deserves his place at the head of the betting.
Elvis Mail is a three-time winner at Kelso and a consistent type but must prove that he’s as effective over further than 2m 2f.
Another course specialist is One Night In Milan who is 2-2 over C&D. The 9-year-old is well treated on his best form from two years back and could get into the places but Brian Hughes who rode him last time at Musselburgh opts for Famous Bridge here.
Wilde About Oscar has the look of a Dan Skelton “plot” horse. The 7-year-old ran better shaped better than his 22 ¾ lengths 4th of 5 at Huntingdon last time suggests. He was still in contention coming to four out but made mistakes at the third and second last hurdles. That was his first start after a wind op. Now 5lb below his last winning mark achieved at Uttoxeter 12 months ago. He races in the first time cheekpieces today and looks well treated, if bouncing back.
2:40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) – 2m 7 ½ f
Not a race I have a strong opinion on. Espoir De Romay probably deserves to head the market on the best of his novice chase from but we haven’t seen the 8-year-old for 125-days. Itchy Feet isn’t one for maximum faith and can make mistakes. The step up to 3m could help his jumping and the first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces. Nuts Well still must prove his stamina for 3m but is a three-time winner at Kelso. Windsor Avenue is an improving 3m handicap chaser who won the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster on his last start. On official ratings he has a similar chance to Itchy Feet and Nuts Well but has a bit to find with the favourite.
3:15 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m
Last year’s race was by The Shunter who also won the £100,000 bonus on offer for going on to win a race at the Cheltenham Festival and that bonus is available to this year’s winner.
Until last season the Morebattle Hurdle was conditions race which had attracted an average field size of just under five. It’s first year as handicap saw 14 runners go to post. Twelve have been declared for this year’s renewal so there will be another decent sized field for this valuable prize.
Buveur D’Air isn’t the horse he was, although he showed last season that he could still produce a high level of form when a 4 ¾ lengths 4th of 11 to Abacadabras in the Grade 1 tree Hurdle. An eight-time Grade 1 winning hurdler, he must be taken seriously on his seasonal return. Yard from must be a concern though.
Metier missed the Betfair Hurdle in account of the drying ground. He’s been raised 7lb for winning at Lingfield last time. His participation in the race depends on how testing the ground. The softer the better for the this classy 6-year-old.
Jessica Harrington could bring over Autumn Evening. The 5-year-old put in a career best effort when a 3 ¾ lengths 3rd of 27 to Call Me Lyreen in Liffey Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown last time. He has a higher mark here but looks capable of going close.
Faivoir twice a winner over fences this season was back over hurdles last time when a 14 ¾ lengths 3rd of 4 to Goshen in Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. He finished third in this race 12 months ago, doing best of those ridden up with the pace, and races off the same mark here.
Severance put in a career best on RPR’s when a ½-length 2nd of 12 to Cormier in handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last month. He travelled through the race last time like he’s a well handicapped horse and remains on a competitive mark.
Newbury
1:50 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
Trainer Paul Nicholls has farmed this race in the past twelve seasons. He’s had 8 winners from 25 runners +50.83 10 placed 40%. That already fantastic record improves further when you focus on his runners aged 6yo to 8yo – 8 winners from 17 runners 47 +58.83 9 placed 53%. He saddled two in this year’s race Tamaroc Du Mathan & Amour De Nuit. The latter is a 10-year-old so the one to concentrates looks to be the former.
Tamaroc Du Mathan won the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton last season. However, he’s run below par on his last three starts including last month when 5th of 8 at Sandown on first start since a breathing operation. That was his first run for 3 months and he’s entitled to have come on for it. Might prefer better ground but is nicely handicapped if bouncing back to his high-class novice chase form.
Glen Forsa took advantage of a falling mark to end a long losing run when winning at Musselburgh last month. The 10-year-ol;d jumped and travelled well that day. Up 5lb in a deeper race and dropping back to 2m 4f here but should be in the mix again.
Dublin Four, twice a winner here over fences, including over C&D in November. Fell four out on his second attempt at 3m at Ludlow last time and didn’t seem to be suited by hold up tactics that day. One for the shortlist for sure but his very best form has come on a sounder surface.
Amoola Gold showed he stayed 2m 4f when a 6 ¾ length 3rd of 9 to Celebre d’Allen at Warwick last time. He’s a very useful handicap chaser on his day and is just 2lb above his last winning mark. On a competitive mark with Jack Andrews taking off a handy 5lb.
The form of the Venetia Williams yardis a bit of a concernand the trainer herself has said that there’s a virus affecting some of her horses. Farinet is her representative here. The 7-year-old bounced back from underwhelming seasonal return when winning at Sandown (2m 4f) in January. Not suited by the step up to 3m back at Sandown last time. This is his trip and he’s well suited to soft ground.
Doncaster
2:55 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
The Big Bite was back to something like his best and once confirmed his liking for Doncaster, form figures 122, when length 2nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola over C&D last time. Same mark and set for big run again.
Malystic a winner of two of his three starts, both over the minimum trip, as a novice last season. A well beaten runner-up to Allmankind in a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Ayr didn’t seem to stay 2m 4f that day. First run for 321-days so fitness has to be taken on trust but he remains capable of better on his first since a wind-op.
3:30 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m 2f
Not the biggest of fields with just 8 set to meet the starter. Cloth Cap comes here rather than go to Kelso. The ground is likely be plenty soft enough for the top-weight.
Le Milos has improved for the adoption of front tunning tactics winning at Exeter and handling the step up in class when successful at Sandown last month. He’s up 4lb for his latest success and could face pace pressure from Storm Control and maybe Cloth Cap but he can’t be ruled given his progressive profile.
Undersupervision was just over 11 lengths behind Le Milos in fourth at Sandown last time. He seemed suited by the fitting of the first time cheekpieces at Sandown and although he’s 0-5 over fences he should be able to win a handicap.
Powerstown Park made it 2-6 over fences, both wins coming at Hereford, on his last start. The 9-year-old is up 6lb and in better race and must prove he can transfer his Hereford to Doncaster. Both chase successes have also come on good to soft. A big contender if he handles the likely softer ground
Betting Advice:
Kelso
1:32 – 1pt win – Wilde About Oscar – 5/1 @ Bet365
3:15 – 1pt win – Faivoir – 9/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Severance – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newbury
1:50 – 1pt win – Farinet – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Doncaster
2:55 – 1pt win – Malystic – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes or 5/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:30 – 1pt win – Undersupervision – 8/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John