Hi all,
What a fantastic four days of sport we have just witnessed. I said the festival had to deliver after a less than stellar jumps season. Well, it did, and in spades.
A nice profit was made for Victor Value subscriber’s thanks in the main to fabulous Thursday and Iroko (advised 8/1) who looked to be going no way on the home turn but stayed on strongly to land the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.
That will do for me given we have just seen the four hardest days of racing of the whole calendar year.
There’s racing from two courses on ITV this afternoon. Four races from Uttoxeter including the day’s feature race the marathon Midlands Grand National (3:00). Kempton also provides three competitive handicaps for ITV viewers to enjoy.
Uttoxeter
It’s the most valuable days racing at Uttoxeter with £150,000 in guaranteed prize money on offer for the feature race.
Its soft ground at Uttoxeter and there could be some heavy showers and if they arrive it could be very testing by the time of the feature race.
1:50 – Up For Parol did too much up front in the hands of an inexperienced conditional jockey at Carlisle last time. Prior to that the 7-year-old had finished an excellent 3rd of 20 in the Lanzarote handicap hurdle at Kempton. A reproduction of that performance would see him go close.
2:25 – Collector’s Item has really improved for the step up to 3m on his last two starts A. short-head 2nd of 12 in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock last time. He’s been raised 7lb fo that performance but he’s on competitive mark for his handicap debut and might do even better with more juice in the ground.
Lord Snootie improved for the step up to 3m 2f on handicap debut at Warwick on New Year’s Eve. The handicapper has raised him 9lb, but he’s only had four starts over hurdles so is capable of more improvement.
Wilde About Oscar proved his stamina for 3m when a short neck 3rd of 11 to one of today’s rivals Dolphin Square at Sandown in December. Not as good on two subsequent starts since but he’s 2-2 at Uttoxeter the latest of those wins coming at this meeting in 2021. Trainer Dan Skelton has likely had this race in mind for the 8-year-old and he looks on a good mark.
3:00 – Boulton Group Midlands Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 4m 2f
Seventeen have been declared for one of the longest races in the racing calendar. Recent course winner (3m) Guetapan Collonges heads the ante post betting. A 6lb rise in the weights isn’t harsh for this improving handicap chase but I’m not sure he’ll stay the trip as strongly as some of his rivals.
One of those rivals is Iwilldoit. Last season’s Welsh Grand National winner returned from a 13 month absence to win Warwick’s’ Classic Chase last time. Guetapan Collonges was 13 lengths back in fourth that day and Iwilldoit is only 2lb worse off here.
The Galloping Bear was back to form when a 2 ½ length 2nd of 13 in Eider (Handicap Chase) at Newcastle last time. He would probably have preferred softer ground at Newcastle and looks an ideal type for another marathon handicap chase.
French Paradoxe made it 3-6 over fences when running out a comfortable winner at Newcastle (2m 7 1/2 f) 46-days ago. The handicapper has hiked him up 11lb for his latest success which was fully warranted. He remains capable of better and if he stays the trip won’t be far away.
Tile Tapper gained a second success over fences when winning at Carlisle (3m ½ f) last month. Up 6lb and with stamina to prove but he could be suited to this marathon trip.
Time To Get Up won this corresponding race two years ago and he was a 12 length 3rd of 18 in last year’s race. He’s been struggling to get home in his races since his effort here but he’s 12lb lower this time and not of it over a C&D that suits.
The Two Amigos took advantage of leniency from the handicapper to the win the Welsh Grand National last time. He’s 5lb higher here but he’s not handicapped out of this.
Secret Reprieve is another previous Welsh Grand National winner (January 2021). He’s hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound since that success. The 9-year-old returned to form when a 10 length 3rd of 11 at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He’s bee dropped 2lb and this stamina test will suit him more.
Midlands Grand National Verdict: I’m happy to take on likely favourite Guetapan Collonges over this marathon trip. However, as can see from my shortlist there are plenty to take him on with. There’re the well handicapped proven stayers in Time To Get Up, The Two Amigos and Secret Reprieve. Then there’s the inform Iwilldoit & The Galloping Bear and potential improvers in French Paradoxe and Tile Tapper.
3:35 – Eleven are to meet the starter for what looks like a very competitive looking novices’ handicap chase (3m). Indeed, I could make a good case for nine of the 11 runners.
The return to 3m should suit the progressive Iron Bridge who is probably a worthy enough favourite.
Super Survivor got off the mark at the second attempt over fences at Chepstow 81-days ago. Prior to that 7-year-old had finished runner-up here on his chase debut. Last time he seemed to relish the step up to around 3m and soft ground. He’s capable of further improvement and likely to go close for an inform yard.
Mackelduff was another to win on his second start over fences. The 7-year-old showed improved form for the step up to 3m when winning at Wetherby in January. Up 5lb but capable of more progress over the larger obstacles.
Gustavian finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago and got off the mark at the ninth attempt when beating two rivals at Exeter 22-days ago. Up 5lb which makes life tougher but he not out of it albeit looks held by Super Survivor on their Chepstow running.
Gustavian’s stablemate Blackjack Magic looks to have a better chance. He was always in control when beating three rivals on heavy ground 67 days ago. It was heavy ground at Exeter and the 8-year probably had a hard race so the break should have freshened him up. This is tougher but he’s only had two starts over fences and should be competitive.
Kempton
It’s good to soft at Kempton but there could be some rain around so the ground could ease a but further if the rain does hit the track during the morning.
I have had a look at two of the ITV races.
2:05 – Outlaw Peter has developed into a decent enough hurdler and gained a third success over timber when beating four rivals in a Wincanton (good) novice hurdle 17-days ago. He looks capable of going close in handicap company but looks a good ground horse.
Press The Luck won this corresponding race 12 months ago. He bounced back to winning ways for a return to good ground at Wincanton 28-days ago. Not out of it even with a 6lb rise in weights but he might want better ground.
Yorksea won at Fontwell two starts back and then ran just as well when a 13 length 4th of 16 in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time. Did best of those coming from the rear that day and he’s capable of better with the step up to 2m 5f likely to suit the 5-year-old.
Scarface won a couple of small field good novice hurdles at Plumpton and Ascot in the autumn. Like many he was pulled up in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton but bounced back to form when a 11 length 4th of 12 in a Haydock Group 2 last month. Possibly wasn’t suited by 3m last time so the drop back in trip could be a positive.
2:40 – More rain won’t inconvenience the 7-year-old Complete Unknown. A useful handicap hurdler last season, he won a novices’ handicap chase at FFos Las on his chase debut. A 5/4 favourite for a Grade 2 novice chase at Warwick before a 13 length 2nd of 4 to Galia Des Liteaux. He’s unexposed over the larger obstacles and better expected back in handicap company despite the drop back in distance.
Galahad Quest ended a two year losing run when winning at Warwick last month. The first time cheekpieces had the desired effect last time and if they continue to work, he remains on a competitive mark, despite a 7lb rise in the weights for his Warwick success.
Fidelio Vallis returned from a 14 month layoff to finish 4 ¼ length 2nd of 8 to Pay The Piper at Musselburgh last month. That was the 8-year-old’s first start for new trainer Harry Derham. Just 2lb higher, he’s a previous course winner and the step up to 2m 4f could suit. He will face pace pressure here but one to consider provided the ground doesn’t ease to much.
Rouge Vif a former high class chaser has dropped 19lb below his last winning mark. Back with previous trainer Harry Whittington he had a couple of run over hurdles but ran much better when an 8 ¼ length 6th of 11 back over fences at Doncaster last time. Temptingly handicapped for sure but a strongly run 2m 4f might stretch his stamina.
Mister Fisher is another potentially well handicapped contender. He’s a former three time Grade 2 winner the latest of then coming over C&D in January 2022. Struggling for form on three starts this season but he’s had wind surgery since pulling up behind Editeur Du Gite here at Christmas. Handicapped to win this if the breathing operation has worked.
Silver Hallmark has struggled for form over fences since winning a Grade 2 at Haydock in January 2021. However, there was more to like about his 7 ¼ length 3rd of 12 to Fugitif at Chepstow in December. Ran poorly at Cheltenham last time but he’s been dropped another 4lb and this flatter track should suit him better.
Verdict: A couple of well handicapped horses, formerly high class chasers Mister Fisher & Rouge Vif take on the inform Galahad Quest & Fidelio Vallis and the very unexposed novice Complete Unknown.
Betting Advice:
Uttoxeter
1:50 – Up For Parol – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Bet365
3:00 – The Two Amigos – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365, French Paradoxe -1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Tile Tapper – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Ladbrokes
3:35 – Blackjack Magic – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365
Kempton
2:40 – Galahad Quest – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Mister Fisher 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John