Hi all,
A veritable feast of top class racing over the next couple of days. It’s the second day of the Irish Derby Festival with the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby going off at 3:45. This side of the Irish Sea it’s the valuable Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. You can watch the Irish Derby and the best of the action from Newcastle & Newmarket on the main ITV channel.
I have already looked at the Irish Derby and the Northumberland Plate earlier in the week. So today I have focused on the three other Newcastle races on ITV.
Tuesday on a Saturday
The field for the Irish Derby has cut up a bit with the just the dead eight declared. The big names Westover & Tuesday remain as do the likes of Hannibal Barca, Lionel, and Piz Badile. As I mentioned in Thursday’s race preview. I think Tuesday will have too much speed for Westover and can become the first filly since Balanchine to win the race. Both Hannibal Barca and Lionel look progressive, and the latter is interesting at around 10/1 if the rain arrives.
Can Trueshan defy top weight?
It will be some weight carrying performance if Trueshan was to defy 10-8 to land this season’s Northumberland Plate (3:30). The 6-year-old wasn’t beaten far in last year’s race off a huge weight and Hollie Doyle is available to ride. Mind you that does mean there will be a lot of lead in the saddle. Still, I expect this classy stayer to run well.
It would be great to Brian Ellison finally the Plate. His runner Onesmoothoperator has plenty of course from and has yet to finish outside the first three on his six starts at the track.
Valley Forge improved for the step up to 2m when winning at Haydock last month. Unexposed as a stayer. He’s yet to race on the synthetics but on pedigree there’s no reason to suggest he won’t handle it.
I gave Uber Cool a favourable mention at 33/1 in my Wednesday Daily Punt column. Looks like other saw the 8-year-old as overpriced as he’s now a best priced 18/1 with Paddy Power. It’s his first run since November but he won first time up last season off an even longer absence. I have him at 16/1 on my tissue.
Newcastle
1:50 – The first Newcastle race on ITV is the Class 2 Pertemps Network Handicap (6f). Twelve have been declared for this sprint handicap. Strike Red is 2-2 over C&D and the 4-year-old put in his effort of the season when a ½-length 4th of 10 at Hamilton last time.
Sound Reason hasn’t run on the synthetics since winning here over 5f early last year. He built on his seasonal reappearance promise when beating seven rivals at Haydock (5f) last month. Up 5lb for that success but he’s going the right way and is totally unexposed over 6f.
Raatea ran well enough on both starts here last year to think he’s effective on the surface. Hasn’t built on his Newmarket seasonal return performances on either start since have been great but he could easily bounce back here.
2:25 – Pertemps Network Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
More 6f sprinters for the Group 3 Pertemps Network Chipchase Stakes (2:25). Sense Of Duty heads the betting after a hard-fought success in the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes at Haydock last month. The runner-up boosted the form of that race since finishing third in the Commonwealth Cup. The three-year-old should improve further and looks worth her place in pattern company.
Glen Shiel heads the official ratings and his form figures over C&D are 211. The first of those successes came in the 6f handicap on this card in 2020. The 8-year-old went onto win the Group 1 Champion Sprint at Ascot on Champions Day that season. Finished runner-up in the same race in 2021 and in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. He hasn’t been at his best so far this season, but a better run could be forthcoming back here.
Group 1 winning juvenile Ebro River hasn’t been at his best on either start this season but seemed to be working back to form in a Group 3 at Chantilly last month. He might not be able to reproduce his juvenile best as a 3-year-old but if he does, he’s very much in the mix.
Judicial won this in 2020 and was a 1¾ lengths 8th of 14 to Bouttemont in All-Weather Sprint Championships Final over C&D last time. He got place claims. The same can be said of Spycatcher who showed he was suited by C&D when a head third in that All-Weather Sprint Championships Final. He gets the first time cheekpieces here and the stronger the gallop the better his chance.
2:55 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Vase Handicap – 2m ½ f
Nineteen have been declared for the consolation race for the Northumberland Plate. My three against the field are: Monsieur Lambrays, Wise Eagle, Zoffee and Geremia.
If the go a good gallop you can’t rule out the talented, but tricky Monsieur Lambrays who was first past the post at Nottingham last time but lost the race in the stewards room. Another who will appreciate a strong pace is the consistent Ravens Ark who was a ½ length 2nd of 9 at Goodwood 15-days ago.
Wise Eagle is 3-6 at the track so no issues with the surface for the 5-year-old and he’s 2-4 over today’s trip. He’s down to his last winning mark and must be high on the shortlist.
Zoffee showed a good battling attitude to win at Carlisle (1m 6f) last month. This sort of stamina test should suit this winning hurdler and he’s respected on first start on the surface.
I put Geremia up in my eyecatcher column, after his running on 2-length 3rd of 17 over today’s distance at York two starts back. Wasn’t in the same form at Musselburgh last time but I’m happy to ignore that run as the track probably didn’t suit. The 4-year-old is 3-3 on the all-weather for his previous yard and although he’s yet to run on the tapeta he should be fine on it. Newcastle’s long straight will suit even if stall 18 isn’t ideal. However, he will be dropped and ridden for luck and if he gets the breaks there’s a nice pot in him.
Curragh
I have not put up anything in the Irish Derby and won’t be having a bet until I know how the ground is. There are three handicaps on the Curragh card, and they offer potential betting opportunities.
2:00 – Ice Cold Alex ran well for third on Friday evening which maintained the recent good form of the Ken Condon yard. The trainer has a couple of runners in this Summer Fillies Handicap (Premier Handicap) in Affable & Needle Lace. The latter has done well since being dropped back in trip by her new trainer winning a mile maiden at Limerick and then running well on both handicap starts since. Given the way she travels the drop to 7f may not be an inconvenience. Night Of Romance was back to winning ways at Gowran Park 13-days ago. She’s been hit with a 9lb rise in the weights but shouldn’t be far away.
4:50 – Plenty of the nineteen runners in this 1m Premier Handicap have claims. A lot depends how the ground rides. The likes of Fastnet Crown & Star Harbour have good C&D big field handicap form, but I suspect connections will be hoping the rain stays away. If it does both have serious win claims. Fastnet Crown get the first time cheekpieces and must be of interest, after decent run at Royal Ascot, if he gets his ground.
Carrytheone has run well on both his starts this season and has form with both Fastnet Crown and Star Harbour. There is a nice pot like this in him when all the cards fall right but this former C&D winner might want a bit more juice in the ground.
No More Porter’s form figures at the Curragh 112. A winner over C&D (yielding) last August and was an excellent 1 ¼ length 2nd of 27 to Celtic Crown over C&D last time. He can race off the same mark and you can see why he’s favourite. That said at 100/30 he’s plenty short enough and he might prefer the ground to ease a bit before post time. It was quick enough on Friday evening with a few non-runners on account of the quickening ground.
Pierre Lapin caught the eye in that race finishing a 1 ½ length fourth to Celtic Crown. He has just ¼ length to find with No More Porter on that running and provided the ground doesn’t ease to much I think the 5-year-old can take advantage of handy enough mark these days.
Hard to know what to expect Dante’s Pass on his seasonal reappearance. He’s just had the three starts as a juvenile and makes his handicap debut here. He should be capable of more improvement as a 3-year-old, but this is tough race to make a winning return to action.
5:25 – Bay Of Bengal made a winning racecourse debut at Gowran Park and improved again when a length 2nd of 14 back at the same venue on her handicap debut. She’s open to further improvement and can race off the same mark as last time. The 4-year-old does face some experienced handicappers in and Chicago Bear and Finians Bay who both have good form at the track. The former bids for the hat trick after win’s here (1m) and at Leopardstown (1m 1f) last time. He’s 7lb higher but today’s extra furlong could bring out even more improvement in the 4-year-old who has a good chance of adding another win before he sets off for new career in Australia. Finians Bay must be respected if reproducing the form of his ½ length 4th of 23 over C&D last September. He’s now 5lb lower and needs respecting off top-weight. Crystal Black was one place in front of Finians Bay in that race and is a contender but is 4lb worse off today. Loingseoir won here over a mile last October but also has winning form over 1m 2f and wasn’t disgraced when a 7 ½ length 3rd of 19 to Mashhoor over C&D last month.
Betting Advice:
Newcastle
1:50 – 1pt win – Sound Reason – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – 1pt win – Ebro River – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:55 – 1pt win – Monsieur Lambrays – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Geremia – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – 1pt each way – Uber Cool – 18/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) and 1pt win – Onesmoothoperator – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Curragh
2:00 – 1pt win – Needle Lace – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes
4:50 – 1pt win – Pierre Lapin – 13/2 @ Bet365
5:25 – 1pt win – Finians Bay – 14/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John