Hi all,
All eyes will be on Ascot Ascot for the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (3.35). Which sees a clash between the classic generation and their older counterparts. The 3-year-olds are represented by Irish Derby Winner Westover and Epsom Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn. The older generation are headed by Arc Winner Torquator Tasso, Juddmonte International winner Mishriff and recent Royal Ascot winner Broome. A small field of just sixbut it could produce a great race.
The Ascot undercard is strong two with a pair of Group 3s, the Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (1.50) and the Longines Valiant Stakes (2.25) and three competitive handicaps including the twenty two runner Moet & Chandon International Stakes (3:00).
ITV are covering four races from Ascot and three races from York, including the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes (3.15) on a seven race programme on the main channel.
It will probably pay to keep an eye on the weather. More rain than was expected earlier in the week was forecast for York on Friday (up to 6mm) with a smaller amount for Ascot, However, the rain bands are showery in nature. Which means some parts will miss the wet stuff and some will get more than their fair share. Rain on already heavily watered ground is a recipe for an ease in the ground.
Saturday’s preview begins where else, but Ascot and today’s betting advice and selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Ascot
1:50 – Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Lezoo has the form in the book, but she does several fillies who are open to plenty improvement. One of them is the George Boughey trained Kinta. A winner of both her starts there’s more improvement to come from her and she can get into the money.
William Haggas saddled Besharah to win this in 2015. He saddles Royal Charter who overcame inexperience to make a winning racecourse debut at Newmarket last month. It probably wasn’t the strongest fillies’ maiden that she won but there’s likely more improvement to come from her Interesting that Tom Marquand comes here rather than ride Dubai Honour in the Group 2 at York.
2:25 – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m
Zanbaq looked a pattern class filly when an improved 1 length 2nd of 28 to Heredia in the Britannia Handicap over C&D at Royal Ascot. Not surprisingly she’s favourite and the one to beat in what doesn’t look the strongest of races. Her stablemate Kind Gesture has won her last two starts and although this is a big step up in class from a Windsor novice, she has each way claims.
The biggest challenger to the favourite looks to be German challenger Novemba. The 4-year-old hasn’t been at her best on either start this season. However, there was more to like about here 4 ¾ length 4th of 7 to Saffron Beach in the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes here last month. A bit more ease in the ground would be preferable for her but if the favourite underperforms, she could be the one to take advantage.
3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
The race of the day for me but sadly most of the horses that I shortlisted earlier in the week stand their ground which doesn’t make solving the puzzle easy.
Dark Shift has 6lb more to carry than when successful in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot and drops 1f here. Neither should inconvenience the 4-year-old though who goes well on the straight course and is well suited to a big field handicap scenario.
Jumby is running well and finished 1 ¼ length 3rd of 18 to Bless Him in the Bunbury Cup and has solid claims. All the cards fell right for Bless Him that day. Despite only a 3lb penalty to carry the bookies don’t think the cards will fall right on Saturday as they have him at 12/1.
Ropey Guest has finished runner-up un the Buckingham Palace Handicap over C&D Royal Ascot and split Bless Him and Jumby in the Bunbury Cup. He has a similar chance to Jumby but the bookies have him at what seem generous odds.
Rhoscolyn finished last in the Bunbury Cup. However, he’s better judged on his 1 length 3rd of 29 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap. If the ground does ease, his chance would be increased.
Tactical was an eyecatcher when 2 ¼ length 6th of 29 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap. He was on the wrong side of the track at Royal Ascot and Ryan Moore who rode him that day has been booked again. Not disgraced when 5 length 4th of 6 in the Group 3 Summer Mile here last time. The return to 7f is a plus and he’s high on the shortlist.
Fresh needs more ease in the ground surely. He’s a bit of s standing dish in big field 6f/7f handicaps here and he’s one the bookies like to keep onside. If the rain arrives then he’s capable of winning.
Air To Air produced a career best on RPR’s when beating four rivals in 7f handicap at Yarmouth last month. That was the 4-year-old’s first run for 309-days and he’s entitled to improve on that effort. He should be suited by a big field handicap like this and is a big player.
Chiefofchiefs is another who goes very well here on the straight course. A 1 ¼ length 4th of 29 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap last time. He was running on at the finish that day after an awkward start. Things must fall right for 9-year-old like they did for Bless Him in the Bunbury Cup but when they do, he can win. Colin Keane gets the ride with Jamie Spencer staying with Bless Him.
King Zain has looked an improved horse on first two starts since joining the Harry & Roger Charlton yard. A winner over today’s trip at Kempton last time. He’s 8lb higher for a return to turf which makes life tougher, but we might not have seen the best of the 4-year-old just yet. James Doyle booked, and the yard won this with Blue Mist in 2020.
Northern Express could be very well suited by the race. He likes a strongly run race and can produce a good turn of foot when he gets that scenario. He comes into the race in great form having won at York and finished runner-up at the same venue last time. Ascot’s straight track might not suit the 4-year-old like York does but 7f and good ground look his optimum.
Star Of Orion is becoming frustrating he’s been behind plenty of these in the Buckingham Palace Handicap and the Bunbury Cup. He didn’t get the best of runs in the first of those races so can probably be excused that run. However, there was little to excuse about his performance in the Bunbury Cup. He was short head runner-up in this race 12 months ago and he’s handicapped to win if on a going day.
It’s a race I like to have a few darts at. Of those at the front end of the betting Air To Air appeals most. Ropey Guest looks a bit of value compared to Jumby and has claims as does the old boy Chiefofchiefs and Tactical. King Zain could get his own way out in front from his high draw in stall 21 and he has to be respected if there is no draw bias in play.
3:35 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Irish Derby winner Westover will probably win but he’s plenty short enough in the betting and the same can be said of second favourite Emily Upjohn. Provided Broome doesn’t miss the start he looks the one to set the pace and isn’t ruled out if he does. I still think Torquator Tasso remains the overpriced horse in the field and he’s the pick but it’s a race to enjoy rather than have a big bet in for me.
York
2:05 – Sky Bet “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap (Class 4) – 5f
Yes, it’s a bit of a novelty race over the 5f but there’s one I really like and its last year’s winner Soul Seeker who will be ridden by Sean Bowen. The 5-year-old started the season in cracking form finishing a ½ length 2nd of 12 to Ava Go Joe at Beverley in April. He’s struggled badly on subsequent starts but there was more promise to be had from his 2 ½ length 7th of 10 at Beverley earlier this month. Tongue tie added for the first time and he’s now 8lb lower than when winning 12 months ago. Tom Scudamore who rode Soul Seeker to win last year is on one of the likely favourites Val De Travers. He’s already won 3 of his five starts this season and showed at Musselburgh how well suited he is to a speed favouring 5f. An inform sprinter who should give his backers a good run for their money despite an 8lb rise in the weight.
2:40 – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
A typically competitive York 6f handicap and claims can be made for most of the 15 runners.
Silver Samurai looked a sprint handicapper worth following when a good winner at Haydock two starts back. He wasn’t well placed or well-drawn when 11th of 26 in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot and better is expected here.
Nationwide was a 1 ¾ length back in third in the Haydock and gets a 6lb pull in the weights with Silver Samurai. Prior to his Haydock run he has been progressive on the all-weather and showed there that he can be effective on turf as he is synthetics.
Mondammej a five time winner last year hasn’t won so far this season albeit he’s been running in Listed/Group company on his last four starts. He stays 6f but was only 7th in last year’s race off a much lower mark and he might be better over 5f.
Venturous won this 12 months ago and can now race off 2lb lower. The 9-year-old hasn’t been quite at his best on his recent starts but there was more to like about his 2 ¼ length 6th of 20 to Mountain Peak at Ascot last time. Although he won last year his hold up tactics aren’t the easiest to pull off here but if the forecast strong pace does arise he won’t be far away off his present mark.
3:15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Just the five have been declared for the York feature but it’s an interesting little race, nonetheless. Dubai Honour is top on Official Ratings. A big improver last season going from handicap company to winning Group 2’s at Deauville and Longchamp and ending last season with a career best when a ¾ length 2nd of 9 to Sealiway in the Group 1 Champion Stakes. He’s not far below Group 1 level and should be up to winning this but this is his first start since finishing down the field in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. He does face a couple of race fit Royal Ascot winner who can take advantage if he needs the run.
Claymore won the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes. The colt got a good front running ride from Adam Kirby that day and could get an uncontested lead once again. Kirby can’t do the weight on Claymore but he’s been booked for Dubai Future. The 6-year-old won the Listed Wolferton Stakes at the Royal meeting. The quicker the ground the better for him and he seems likely to be better placed than the favourite in what could be a steadily run race.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
3:00 – 1pt win – Tactical – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Ropey Guest – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – King Of Zain – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – 1pt win – Torquator Tasso – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Broome – 20/1 @ Bet365
York
2:05 – 1pt win – Soul Seeker – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:40 – 1pt win – Nationwide – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Venturous – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
I will be keeping my powder dry for the start of the Galway Festival which starts on Monday and the Qatar Goodwood Festival which starts on Tuesday. Which means there won’t be any selections on Sunday.
Cheers
John