Hi all,
There’s racing to suit most punters today. Inside today’s preview I have concentrated on the ITV races and some races at the Curragh.
You can find today’s selections and betting advice at the end of the main piece.
At the Curragh we have classic action with Irish Oaks (3:45) the centerpiece of a cracking eight race card. Just eight have been declared for the four Irish Classic and four of them are trained by Aidan O’Brien.
At Newbury it’s Super Sprint Day. There’s £250,000 in guaranteed prize money with £122,925 on offer to the winner. First established in 1991, this 2-year-old race has since become one of the highlights of Newbury’s summer racing calendar.
What sets the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes apart from other races is its unique format. Instead of assigning weights based on the horses’ ability or form, the weights are determined by the sale price of the horse at auction. The concept behind this type of handicapping is to level the playing field and give all horses an equal chance of success.
Over the years, the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes has produced some notable winners such as Lyric Fantasy, Tiggy Wiggy, and Mrs Danvers who all went on to achieve success at a higher level.
Jump fans also catered for today. Market Rasen hosts one of the highlights of the summer jumps season, the Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (3:15).
You can watch the best of the action from Newbury and Market Rasen on ITV this afternoon. The programme also includes live coverage of the Irish Oaks.
Let’s begin today’s preview at Newbury.
Newbury
A wet afternoon is forecast with possibly 4mm of rain at the track on Saturday. There could be more, or they could be less it’s one of those sorts of days. It should pay to focus on ground versatile horses.
1:50 – bet365 Stakes (Registered As The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
Phantom Flight wasn’t disgraced on first start at 1m 4fwhen a2 ½ length 4th of 5 in a similar race at Newmarket 21 days ago. The drop back to 1m 2f should suit the 4-year-old better and he did finish well ahead of the quirky Al Aasy who has been penciled in the 11/8 at the time of writing on Friday morning. Dancing Magic proved his stamina for 1m 2f when a 4 length 8th of 16 to Waipiro in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Like Phantom Flight he’s a backable prize compared to the favourite.
2:25 – Mettal UK Handicap (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Nathanael Greene mostly progressive last season seemed to stay 2m when a 2 ½ lengths 4th of 19 to Calling The Wind in Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last time. The first time blinkers replace the cheekpieces and it worth remembering he did improve to win in the first time cheekpieces last year. Rain softened ground would be an unknown and he looks short enough to me at 7/2.
Sweet William runner-up on his first three starts went one better in the first time blinkers at Doncaster (1m 4f) 15 days ago. Not sure about the rain as it was good to firm last time. A mark of 88 looks very workable for the 4-year-old’s handicap debut and if he stays today’s longer trip should go close. I’m a bit surprised he isn’t favourite.
Novel Legend looked a progressive handicapper at the end of 2022 and began with this season with improved performances to win at Kempton and over C&D in the spring. Not disgraced when runner-up in the Chester Vase (didn’t seem to enjoy the track) or when a 4 length 7th of 19 in the Ascot stakes at Royal Ascot last time. He seems at his best with ease in the ground so rain would be welcome.
Apparate clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as the 7-year-old has only run three times since September 2020. Not disgraced on first start for 20 months and on debut for Jamie Osborne when a neck 2nd of 8 at Doncaster (1m 4f) 50 days ago. Stays 1m 6f and 2m threatened to suit in the past. I liked his chance earlier in the week at big odds, but the forecast rain has tempered my enthusiasm a shade.
Verdict: I might regret not putting up Apparate but with rain forecast I’m going with Novel Legend to return to winning ways.
3:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
The likeable Commanche Falls must be respectedafter his recent Curragh Listed success, but I would be concerned that they might go fast enough for him in the early stages.
Lezoo did well as a juvenile ending last season with a win the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. Not fired on either start this season and there has to be concern she hasn’t trained on. Any rain softened the ground would also be a worry for me.
Annaf produced a career best when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 17 to Bradsell in the Group 1 King’s Stand at Royal Ascot. He did best of the hold-up horses and didn’t get the best of runs 1f out when a 2½ lengths fourth of 10 at Sandown last time. Yet to win on turf but capable of doing so when all the cards fall right.
Ehraz interested me in the first time blinkers, but more rain doesn’t enhance his chance. Nor does it suit Garrus and Mitbaahy.
Rohaan a close-up fourth in this race 12 months ago is fine on an easy surface but for me needs a soundly run race which he might not get here.
One who shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the forecast rain is Cold Case. The 3-year-old an improving juvenile last season made a winning return to action when beating Bradsell in a Group 3 at Ascot in May. Well behind Little Big Bear at Haydock 56 days ago but was beaten at halfway and didn’t give his true running that day. I’m inclined to forgive his latest performance and he’s the selection.
Verdict: Cold Case is better than he was able to show at Haydock last time and he’s the pick.
3:35 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race) (Class 2) – 5f
Relief Rally who was only beaten a nose in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot has been installed favourite. A reproduction of her last time effort would see her hard to beat at the weights.
Bobsleigh caught my eye when finishing a 3 length 6th of 20 to River Tiber in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Previously the gelding had won the Woodcote Stakes (6f) at Epsom. He doesn’t lack pace and the drop back to 5f shouldn’t inconvenience him. Stablemate Juniper Berries gives trainer Eve Johnson Houghton a strong hand in the race. The filly finished 4 lengths behind Relief Rally when fourth in the Queen Mary last time and gets a handy 7lb here.
Irish challenger Son Of Corballis looked very speedy when winning a Listed race at Tipperary 17 days ago. The son of Raven’s Pass would have to be respected if Kieran Cotter brings him over for the race.
La Guarida looked a nice prospect when winning a Goodwood maiden (6f) on her second start. However, she ran like something was amiss when last of 16 in the Chesham Stakes (7f) at Royal Ascot. Not sure about the drop back to the minimum trip but if you forgive her last run, she couldn’t be discounted given her trainer.
Rod Millman saddles two in Beenham & Croocked Crown. The former could be the stable pick and the booking of Osin Murphy a positive one for a yard that won this in 2019 with a filly. Beenham built on her racecourse debut promise when winning a Goodwood novice two starts back. Disappointed in Listed company at York last time but has been given a 64 day break and this has likely been the plan.
Archie Watson’s sole entry is Heed The Call who handled the soft ground when winning at Hamilton last Saturday.
Verdict: Relief Rally might indeed be too classy for her 20 rivals but at 6/4 you can let her win. Irish challenger Son Of Corballis is a speedy type should go well and I have liked Bobsleigh for this but more ease in the ground would be a concern. At bigger prices Beenham looks interesting for Rod Millman.
Market Rasen
They have been watering extensively at Market Rasen to maintain good ground. That could come back to bite them as the course could see 14mm of rain on Saturday.
I was really looking forward to attacking the ITV races but the potential for a change in the going means I’m less inclined to do so now.
2:05 – Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) – 2m 4 ½ f
Fenna’s Loss who won a Hexham handicap hurdle 27 days was my fancy here on good ground. On easier ground Wavering Dawn merits serious consideration. The 8-year-old looked as good as ever when a neck 2nd of 8 at Uttoxeter 35 days ago.
2:40 – Unibets Zero% Mission Summer Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Myristica completed a maiden/novice hurdle hat trick when winning at Worcester 17 days ago. The 5-year-old has taken well to hurdling and looks on a workable mark for her handicap hurdle debut. She should be fine on good to soft handled that sort of ground on the flat and looks the one to beat.
Glorious Zoff looks to have benefited from wind surgery. A winner at Warwick in May. The 6-year-old looked set to follow up when falling at the last at Bangor on his next start. Was caught of his ground when a strong finishing ½ length 2nd of 8 at Newton Abbot 15 days ago. The forecast strong pace will suit and is to seriously consider.
3:15 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 5 ½ f
Francky Du Berlais bids for a Summer Plate hat trick and he’s only 1lb higher than when successful 12 months ago. Plenty to like about the 10-year-old’s prep for this year’s race when a never-nearer 9 ½ lengths 3rd of 9 over C&D last month. Didn’t get the hardest of rides that day and and he’s a worthy favourite. Stablemate Courtland is discounted either given his current vein of form. The 8-year-old completed a handicap chase hat trick when successful over C&D 13 days ago. A 6lb rise makes life harder and Sean Bowen opts for Francky Du Berlais but he’s remains high on the shortlist.
Born Famous has really thrived since joining Ian Jardine earlier this year, winning all four starts( two over fences and two of her hurdles). Ground versatile she’s got a 5lb penalty to carry for her latest success at Perth 6 days ago and provided this race doesn’t com too quick has to be respected with Harry Cobden booked.
Chief Black Robe has improved for the switch to Fergal O’Brien, completing a handicap chase four timer when beating three rivals at Worcester 12 days ago. A 6lb rise isn’t harsh but the 6-year-old’s improved form has come on good ground. This is a better race than he’s been contesting but he looks a big price considering his recent form.
Fix At All finished 5 lengths in front of Francky Du Berlais when 4 ½ lengths 2nd of 9 over C&D last time. He’s on competitive mark and should be in the mix once more.
Verdict: A race where the result might well depend on how much rain arrives before post time. Francky Du Berlais must have a great chance of a race hat trick and if you fancy you should keep stablemate Courtland onside. In form mare Born Famous is another with solid claims.
Curragh
I like the look of the Curragh card. Not only do we have the Irish Oaks, but the supporting card is also good with two Group 2 and one Group 3 contest. There’s also a competitive looking renewal of the Paddy Power Scurry Handicap with 21 set to line-up.
The weather forecast isn’t encouraging. The Curragh was forecast to receive 4.5mm of rain on Friday and a further 11mm on Saturday and it could be more. The going at the Curragh was being described as yielding on Friday lunchtime but with the forecast we will probably looking at soft maybe slightly worse.
3:45 – Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Eight were left in the race at final declarations and Aidan O’Brien saddles four of them.
Savethelastdance relished the soft ground when winning the Cheshire Oaks in May and will be better suited to the track than Epsom. Ease in the ground is very much in her favour and although the Epsom form isn’t working out, she’s the one to beat.
Warm Heart has improved to win her last two starts. If the ground was on the quick side, I would be all over but on softer I’m not as sure and Ryan Moore opts for Savethelastdance.
Aidan has had positive things to say about Be Happy. Runner-up in the Lingfield Oaks Trial last time. The daughter of Camelot would need to have improved plenty since May to beat her two stablemates.
Ralph Beckett has left Bluestocking in the race. The filly finished a head 2nd of 8 to Warm Heart in Listed race at Newbury in May. However, she was a 3 ¾ length to same rival in Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. She didn’t get the best of runs 2f out otherwise would have finished closer. Capable of better with racing and is she handles the ground would be interesting.
Lumiere Rock finished a 2 ½ length runner-up to Warm Heart in the Ribblesdale. Like Bluestocking she should stay further and won on soft ground as a juvenile which Is a plus.
Azazat won a heavy ground maiden at Leopardstown in May and improved again when ½-length 2nd of 8 to Rosscarbery in Munster Oaks (1m 4f) at Cork last time. She will need to have improved plenty since her last start to win. However, I think she’s a nice prospect and the softer ground the better.
Verdict: There could be plenty of rain at the Curragh which will suit favourite Savethelastdance. Bluestocking seems to lack tactical speed and might improve for further than 1m 4f but she’s capable of better and if she handles the ground has a chance. Azazat goes very well in the mud, and she’s not discounted if she gets her underfoot conditions.
Rest of the Curragh card:
2:35 – Paddy Power Scurry Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 6 ½ f
I can’t let this handicap go by without throwing a couple of darts.
Albasheer seemed to take to the first time blinkers when a 3 length 11th of 27 to stablemate Saint Lawrence in Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. He’s on good mark but soft ground would be an unknown. Colin Keane booked though and if handles the rain softened ground he’s got a big chance.
Blairmayne showed his no back number when winning at Naas (soft to heavy) on his seasonal return in April and wasn’t disgraced when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 19 at Cork (7f) 78 days ago. The 10-year-old is dual course winner and has run well in this race in the past.
Hurricane Ivor won here off 3lb lower in April and was a ½ length 3rd of 15 here two starts back. Well down the field in the Wokingham Handicap last time. Not discounted back this venue and on easier ground.
Laugh A Minute won here on testing ground over 5f in March and finished one place in front of Hurricane Ivor here two starts back. Found things happening to quick on fast ground here (5f) last time. Not discounted on a easier surface and back over further.
Strike Red a winner of a 19 runner handicap at York last October, posted a seasonal best when a ½ length 2nd of 6 at Ripon last month and has claims if building on that performance.
Big Gossey goes very well here and was a head 2nd of 17 to Mr Wagyu in this race 12 months ago. Now 9lb higher he posted arguably a career best last time when a neck 4th of 16 here (5f) earlier this month. Has been nudged up 2lb but seems likely to give his running once more.
No More Porter was a ½ length and one place behind Big Gossey in last years race but he’s 12lb better of with that one this time around. He was only beaten a neck here over 6f in a 20 runner handicap last September off 3lb higher. He hasn’t really fired on four starts since joining his present yard, but those runs have come over 7f/1m. He needs the forecast strong pace and soft ground to materalise back down in trip though and is 2lb out of the handicap.
Gustavus Weston would be very well treated if bouncing back to the form of his Group 2 & Group 3 successes here (6f) in 2021. He was a 3 ½ length 9th of 17 in last years race but can race off 12lb lower this time around. He was 33/1 earlier in the week, which looked to big but had dropped to as short as 16/1 on Friday afternoon.
Verdict: I would have been more interested in Albasheer on better ground. There’s plenty on my shortlist but I’m looking at horses drawn middle to high which gives me Strike Red, Blairmayne and No More Porter and I’m going with two of those three.
4:20 – Comer Group International Curragh Cup (Group 2) – 1m 6f
Ryan Moore opts for recent Ascot Gold Cup fourth Emily Dickinson. The filly goes well on soft ground and is the one to beat on form. The one that interest me most though is stablemate Gooloogong We haven’t seen the son of Australia since he won a Navan maiden (1m 2f) at the end of March. Strong at the finish that day and looked in need of further. The colt is open to plenty of improvement. He was tipped up by some shrewd judges as a contender for the Queens Vase although he ultimately missed that race. Not really bred for 1m 6f but he’s the most intriguing runner in the race for me and could be an Irish St Leger if he was to go close here.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
2:25 – Novel Legend – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Cold Case – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
3:35 – Beenham – 1pt win – 25/1 @ Bet365
Market Rasen
2:40 – Myristica – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:15 – Courtland – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Born Famous – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Curragh
2:35 – Strike Red – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and No More Porter – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – Azazat – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Bet365
4:20 – Gooloogong – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John