Hi all,
The Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (2.05) at Newcastle is Saturday’s betting highlight. Trueshan defied a huge weight to win last year’s renewal. There’s no Trueshan in this year’s line-up but the race has a competitive look with 19 set to meet the starter.
Besides the big betting race there’s a good undercard which includes the Plate consolation race the Northumberland Vase (1.30) and the Group 3 JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes (12:55).
ITV are covering four races from Newcastle and three from Newmarket on a seven race programme on Saturday afternoon.
I’m still under the weather with a chest infection and my concentration levels are not great as I would like.
Inside today’s main piece I have looked at the races live on ITV. Plus, there are some selections from the Curragh. I’m sending out to today’s preview for you to read and digest. Saturday’s selections and betting advice will be with you tomorrow morning.
Newcastle
12:20 – JenningsBet Festival Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
You can draw a line through Lethal Levi’s Wokingham Handicap effort when he was hampered 2f out, and he’s better judged on last month’s Neck 2nd of 21 to Bielsa at York. Makes his all-weather debut here and if he’s effective on the surface won’t be far away. Raatea won this race 12 months ago from 5lb lower and was back to winning ways at Haydock three weeks ago. Nudged up 3lb but looks to have a good chance of following up.
12:55 – JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Brad The Brief is best of the eight runners on Official Ratings. Improved for the switch to Hugo Palmer won twice in spring of last year including a Group 2 at the Curragh last May. Never competitive in the Group 1 Champions Sprint on his only other start at the end of last season. Three from four on seasonal return and claims if back to last season’s best.
Judicial might be an 11-year-old but he showed there was fire in the old boy’s belly when winning a Conditions race at Beverley last September. Well beaten in last year’s race but he won the 2020 renewal. Odds of 12/1 look fair enough to me for a yard among the winners.
1:30 – JenningsBet Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race For The Northumberland Plate) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Blow Your Horn completed a hat trick with a comfortable success at Pontefract 6 days ago. Has a 7lb penalty for his latest win but if this doesn’t come to quick, has a big chance of the four timer.
Citizen General two from three at the course posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 9 to one of today’s rivals Appier at Lingfield (1m 4f) last month. First time cheekpieces are applied and he gets a 5lb pull in the weights with the winner and could be capable of further progress stepped up to 2m.
Mostly Sunny gained a C&D success last November and was back to form last time when a ¾-length 2nd of 7 at Goodwood (2m) 20 days ago. The 4-year-old is just 1lb above his last winning mark and must be respected for a yard 3-9 with its runners in the past 14 days.
2:05 – JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
I covered the race in Wednesday’s preview so no need to return to it in any detail here. It looks a competitive renewal of the plate. Post Impressionist & Nathanael Greene give William Haggas a strong hand in the race. The former has been a bit weak in the ante post betting but the fact that Tom Marquand was booked for the ride on Monday is enough to swing it for me. Both Adjuvant and Golden Rules are going the right way and are very much in the mix. Zoffee and Law Of the Sea are in form and have to be respected after their recent runs at Royal Ascot. Mountain Road is interesting back on the all-weather and seems likely to get the strong pace he needs.
Newmarket
12:40 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f
Star Of Mystery built on the promise of her Doncaster racecourse debut when winning at Haydock when successful at Haydock 16 days ago. The daughter of Kodiac looked like a nice juvenile prospect last time and will be tough to beat here. Her most interesting rival looks to be Rare Jewel. It’s interesting that trainer William Haggas is prepared to pitch the daughter of Exceed And Excel in to the deep end for her racecourse debut.
1:15 – Cavani Menswear Sartorial Sprint Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 4f
Not a race that interests me from a betting perspective and it looks between New London and Al Aasy.
New London was a progressive 3-year-old winning three times including the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. Sent off the 11/8 favourite for the St Leger but could only finish third on his final start of 2022. Looks the sort to do better at four back at 1m 4f and looks the right favourite.
Al Aasy travels like a Group 1 horse through his races but doesn’t often find much off the bridle. Won his only start last season and goes well first time up. In receipt of 2lb from New London he might be able to take advantage if the favourite isn’t fully tuned up.
1:50 – Cavani Menswear Fashion Face-Off Frenzy Criterion Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Aldaary is the best of the six runners on Official Ratings. The 5-year-old was progressive in handicap company in 2021 and won a Haydock Listed race on his only start of 2022. Form figures 111 when returning from a 121+ day layoff shows he goes well fresh, so a 420 day absence isn’t a negative.
Jumby was back to his best when a Group 3 at Haydock three weeks ago. Has a 3lb penalty to give away to his five rivals which makes life tougher, but he shouldn’t be far away over his optimum trip.
Pogo wasn’t seen to best effect when held up in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Last year’s winner is a much better horse when allowed to dictate the pace from the front and his record at 7f /7 ½ f in field sizes 8 & under is 5 wins from 9 starts, 7 placed. Should get an uncontested lead here and will be hard to peg back if back to his best.
Curragh
It’s not on ITV but there’s Group 1 action at the Curragh where its day two of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Festival. Nine fillies & mares have been declared for the Pretty Polly Stakes (3:25). An eight race card also includes a Group 2 & Group 3 contest and three big field handicaps.
2:50 – Sherry FitzGerald Country Homes Handicap – 6f
Gordon Bennett won twice here last season including over C&D. In need of the run when only fifth of 6 in a Conditions race at Fairyhouse on his seasonal return but should be spot on fitness wise here. High on the shortlist back at a track that suits.
Coumshingaun has run well on her last three starts and can race from 7lb lower than when winning this race 12 months ago. Provided the ground isn’t too quick the filly should make a bold bid to follow up last year’s success.
3:25 – Yulong Pretty Polly Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 2f
A fascinating renewal with the older fillies & mares taking on the 3-year-olds in a clash of the generations in a Group 1 race over middle distances.
Above The Curve, a Group 1 last season, was back to her best andposted a career best on RPR’s when making all to win a Group 2at Saint-Cloud last month. The change to front running tactics suited her and she could get an uncontested lead once more.
Via Sistina is a top class middle distance mare who posted a career best when winning running out an easy winner of the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket last month. A reproduction of that performance would see her hard to beat here but she doesn’t want the ground too quick.
The classic generation are represented by a couple of smart fillies in Never Ending Story and Comhra.
Never Ending Story finished a 4 length 2nd of 15 to the smart Blue Rose Cen in Prix de Diane (French Oaks at Chantilly 13 days ago. This looks like the filly’s optimum trip and although Ryan Moore opts to ride Above The Curve can’t be ruled out.
Comhra improved for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 10 to Tahiyra in Irish 1000 Guineas here last month. She’s progressed with each start this season and on pedigree can improve for the step up to 1m 2f.
4:00 – Paddy Power International Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
Al Riffa looked a smart prospect when winning the Group 1 National Stakes here on his last juvenile start. Makes his belated seasonal reappearance over a trip that should suit on pedigree. Looks the one to beat if ready to roll on his first start since last September.
The Aidan O’Brien trained colt Alfred Munnings hasn’t been seen on the track since finishing 6th of 13 in last year’s Chesham Stakes (11/8 fav) at Royal Ascot. Interesting on his return to action for a trainer who has won this race six times since 2013.
4:35 – Kildare Village Ladies Derby Handicap – 1m 4f
Goodie Two Shoes looked a useful filly when winning two of her three starts on the flat last season. First start since falling in a Grade 3 hurdle at Fairyhouse 154 days ago. Big chance with Rachel Blackmore booked for the 4-year-old’s handicap debut. Stablemate Dancing Tango goes well on a sound surface as she showed when winning a Fairyhouse handicap (1m 2f) 30 days ago. Up 7lb for that win but has won over 1m 4f and has to be respected with a good amateur booked.
Longbourn’s last win came in a handicap (1m 2f) at this meeting last year. Back to form effort when a running 5 ¾ length 3rd of 13 at Leopardstown (1m 1f) 23 days ago. Stays 1m 4f and likely to be in the mix once more.
Pachmena’s win record isn’t great (1-38) but shewas a ½ length 2nd of 17 in last year’s race and can race off 4lb lower this time around. A solid 2nd of 8 at Ballinrobe 5 days ago puts the mare firmly in the mix with the cheekpieces back on.
5:40 – DMG Media Irish EBF Handicap – 2m
Willie Mullins saddled Maze Runner to win this race 12 months ago and he has two contenders in Immelmann & Foveros. Immelmann raced four times on the flat for Simon & Ed Crisford in 2021 and makes his stable/handicap debut. Foveros a previous C&D winner was well beaten in this race last year on his seasonal return and was out of form on two subsequent starts on the flat and over hurdles. Well-being must be taken on trust on his first start since July but given his trainer can’t be easily discounted.
Newfoundland, trained by Aidan O’Brien, wasn’t seen to best effect when a 5 ½ length 6th of 18 here (1m 6f) last month. The first time cheekpieces are applied and the 4-year-old remains capable of better.
Almuhit was a ½-length 2nd of 10 here (1m 6f) 24 days ago. That was a back to form effort by the 4-year-old. In the mix once more if staying 2m.
Sheishybrid seemed to improve for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when a back to form 1 ¾ length 4th of 10 here last time (Almuhit runner-up). The mare won over 2m 2f last season so the step up 2m looks a big plus to her chance.
Extensio won the Ladies Derby (1m 4f) here last season. The 6-year-old posted a career best on RPR’s when a 3 length 2nd of 14 at Leopardstown (1m 7f) 16 days ago. Interesting that connections didn’t target him at the Ladies Derby and instead come here. Siobhan Rutledge takes off a handy 5lb and he’s one for the shortlist.
Cheers
John