Hi all,
I’m out for a meal and some drinks on Friday evening so I decided to take a chance and get Saturday’s Preview out early.
Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn is odds on to go one place in today’s Irish Oaks (3.45) at the Curragh. It’s a good card for Irish Oaks Day. Besides the fillies Classic, there’s the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes and the valuable Paddy Power Scurry Handicap (2:35).
The best of the action this side of the Irish Sea comes from Newbury, where the Weatherbys Super Sprint (3.30) and bet365 Hackwood Stakes (2:56) are the highlights.
There’s also something for jumps fans to enjoy as Market Rasen host its biggest meeting of the year with the Grade 3 Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (3:14) the highlight of a seven race card.
You can watch the best of the action from Newbury and Market Rasen on ITV on an eight race programme that also includes the Irish Oaks.
In today’s preview I look at races at Newbury, Market Rasen and the Curragh. As ever Saturday’s selections are at the end of the main piece.
Newbury
2:21 – Highclere Castle Gin Cup Stakes (A Class 2 Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Two previous winners of the race Withhold (2019) and Reshoun (2020) take their place among the 8 strong field. You can make cases for both if both are at their best. The former will be better for last month’s seasonal reappearance at Chester but needs fitting of the first time visor, replacing the cheekpieces, to have the desired effect. Reshoun stays for ever as he showed when a length 2nd of 12 to Stratum in Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Auriferous, despite being 0-12 on turf, put in his best performance on the grass when ¾ length 2nd of 7 to Ahorsewithnoname over C&D in April. The 4-year-old put in another sound effort when a 3 ¾ lengths 5th of 18 in the Northumberland Vase last time. He stays well, has a good attitude but is vulnerable to improvers with a change of gear.
2:56 – Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
A big field and deep race for this year’s renewal with the bookies likely to go 5/1 the field. Rohaan was trained to the minute when winning the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. On the figures he can win this, but he didn’t transfer his high class handicap form to pattern races last year which is a slight concern.
Man Of Promise improved to win a Group 3 over the distance at Meydan in March and followed up with a decent effort when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 16 to A Case Of You in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint on World Cup Night. He couldn’t get competitive when dropped back to 5f in the King Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. This is more his type of race and if the 5-year-old can reproduce his smart Dubai form in Britain he’s a big contender.
I was hoping for better from Great Ambassador in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, he may have needed his first start since a great effort under a big weight in the Ayr Gold Cup. He remains with scope to make the step up into pattern company and better is expected here.
3:30 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 5f
Given the size of the field I looked to see if the draw had any significance. Well, it could be. Since 2012 horses drawn in stalls 1 to 9 are 0 winners from 84 runners 5 placed.
The David O’Meara trained Maria Branwell comes into the race with the best form having won her first two starts, including the Listed National Stakes at Sandown and then was an excellent 3 length 3rd of 21 to Dramatised in Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. The race conditions also suit her, as she is getting weight from half of 27 juveniles left in at Monday’s final confirmation stage. Granted the runner-up at Royal Ascot didn’t do much for the form at Newmarket last week. However, the O’Meara filly will take the beating if she run anywhere close to her Queen Mary form.
Richard Hannon in his bid for hat trick of wins in the race has left five in the race and three of them have jockeys booked. They include Miami Girl, who finished 1 ¾ length behind Dramatized at Royal Ascot before beating two rivals at Windsor last time. She does have to concede 6lb to the O’Meara filly on Saturday which makes life tough, but she’s got sound each way claims. The other Hannon runner to take the eye is Swift Asset who left his racecourse debut run behind him when winning at Windsor 19-days ago. He didn’t have a hard race that day and is open to further progress with racing.
Market Rasen
They have been putting plenty of water down this week so whilst its forecast to be good I doubt it will be too fast despite the warm weather.
2:41 – Unibet 15 To Go Summer Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) -2m ½ f
The betting is headed by Cirque Royal. The 6-year-old had some smart form in 2019 when trained on the flat by Charlie Appleby. Bought cheaply he’s really improved on his last two starts over hurdles winning a novice hurdle at Perth and following up at Kelso. Good ground and a speed favoring track suit and he looks well treated for his handicap hurdle debut. His biggest rival could turn out to be another Irish challenger in Hisnameis Mrdevitt. Twice a winner on the flat. He’s 0-7 over hurdles but he did post a career best on RPR’s when a 2 ¼ lengths 2nd of 15 at Roscommon 12-days ago. There’s a handicap to be won with the 5-year-old this summer and he got each way claims.
3:14 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 5 ½ f
There should be a good pace for the Market Rasen feature. La Domaniale made it 2-3 since going chasing when making all to win at Uttoxeter earlier this month. The mare’s up 5lb for her Uttoxeter success but is going the right way and is high on the shortlist. However, she does face a few inform rivals:
Rostello seemed to relish the quick ground when easily winning at Stratford 6-days ago He’s got a 5lb penalty to carry but that shouldn’t stop him. However, the quick turnaround in a better race is a concern.
Another coming back quickly is Texard. The 7-year-old put in a good round of jumping when making all to beat three rivals at Uttoxeter 3-days ago. A 5lb penalty won’t stop him if in the same form as last time.
Mortlach made it 3-3 over fences when winning at Aintree last month. He’s jumped a bit to his right on his last two starts so going this way around could really suit the 7-year-old.
The 12-year-old Peregrine Run isn’t the horse he was, but he loves quick ground and has run well on his last two starts. Was likely undone by the good to soft ground under a big weight when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 8 at Cartmel last time. The forecast strong pace will suit, and he shouldn’t be underestimated despite his age.
Two length separated Mahler’s Promise and Statuario when they were first and second over C&D last time. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again at the revised weights, but my preference is for the latter, trained Peter Bowen who has saddled the winner of this race twice since 2018, including last year with Francky Du Berlais. The latter is 2lb higher than when successful 12 months ago and like his stablemate is another with claims.
Curragh
3:45 – Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Emily Upjohn will be tough to beat if reproducing her Oaks performance. However, my pick at the prices though is the Jessica Harrington trained filly Magical Lagoon who relished the step up to 1m 4f when winning the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. Not sure she beat much last time, and she needs to step up gain to beat Emily Upjohn and a returned to form Tuesday. However, the daughter of Galileo has only had five career starts and open further progress over the distance. She also proved her effectiveness for quick ground at Royal Ascot which seems likely to be important for today’s race.
2:35 – Paddy Power Scurry Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 6 ½ f
Not live on ITV but I can’t really let the most competitive flat handicap of the day go without having a crack at it.
Looking at the draw trends for the last ten running’s of the race those drawn middle to high have been favored.
First half of the draw: 2 winners from 97 runners – 75.5 18 placed
Second half of the draw: 8 winners from 91 runners +66 20 placed
There are plenty on my shortlist but half of them don’t look well served by the draw.
Big Gossey (11), a previous C&D winner looked as good as ever when a ½-length 2nd of 18 here when dropped back to 5f last time. Back up in trip and hopefully has a better draw today.
Neo Soul (3) was a length behind Big Gossey in third last time. He shapes like 6f could suit and his sole run over the distance saw him win at Dundalk last November. However, stall 3 looks a negative on trends.
Blairmayne (6) is another not looking favoured by his draw. He put in a poor effort when only 13th of 16 in that 5f handicap last time. Can do better over 6f and drier ground will suit the 9-year-old who has plenty of good form here.
Goodnight Girl (2) won a big field 6f handicap here last August, off 4lb higher. Likely needed her seasonal reappearance when last of 9 at Fairyhouse. Capable of better on ground that suits although stall 2 doesn’t look promising.
Nordic Passage (1) isn’t the most consistent of sprinters but he’s a former C&D winner who was a 1 ¾ lengths 2nd of 16 to Coumshingaun in a 6f handicap here 20 days ago. It was soft that day, but he seems ground versatile and whilst he’s interesting in the first time cheekpieces, stall 1 tempers enthusiasm.
Coumshingaun (14) is better drawn in stall 14 and the 3-year-old is going the right way. She got an 8lb hike in the weights for her latest success but if the filly is as effective on quick ground as soft she’s capable of going close.
Lord Dudley (16) failed to complete the hat trick when a 2 ¾ length fifth to Coumshingaun here last time. Possibly did too much out in front on rain softened ground that day and on a sounder surface from a high draw looks capable of better. Yet to win here but has good form at the track and he stays 7f.
Andreas Vesalius (4) highly tried as a juvenile; the 3-year-old returned to action with a good 2nd of 10 on his handicap debut at Naas 24-days ago. Up 2lb but he’s on a competitive mark and the first time cheekpieces could eke out more improvement. Stall four does make life tough and with most of the pace being middle to high it may be another day before he can add to sole career win.
Quarantine Dreams (5) is one I liked for this but stall 5 is off putting. He was drawn on the wrong side in the Wokingham Handicap on his penultimate start but ran better when a neck 2nd of 6 in minor event at Tipperary 17 days ago.
The likeable Mr Wagyu (10), a winner at Epsom two start back showed he remains in form when a 2 ¼ lengths 4th of 26 to Rohaan in Wokingham Handicap last time and seems likely to give his running once more.
Micky The Steel (12) has yet to win after 21 starts but he’s got plenty of form that gives him an each- way chance. He was ½ length behind Lord Dudley at Naas on his seasonal return and a neck 2nd of 18 here (6f) three starts back. He will drop into handicap sometime and stall 12 doesn’t loos a negative.
Betting Advice:
2:21 – 1pt win – Auriferous – 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Withold – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:56 – 1pt win – Rohaan – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Man Of Promise – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes
3:30 – 1pt win – Miami Girl – 8/1 @ Coral
Market Rasen
2:41 – 1pt win – Hisnameis Mrdevitt – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:14 – 1pt win – La Domaniale – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Curragh
2:35 – 1pt win – Lord Dudley – 12/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Big Gossey – 12/1 @ Bet365
Curragh
Cheers
John