Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of the action ITV this afternoon.
Milder weather looks to have arrived in Ireland. That means there a good chance that Navan will be able to race on Saturday and Thurles should be fine for Sunday.
This side of the Irish Sea we lost Taunton who didn’t wait for a Saturday morning inspection after a worse than expected frost on Friday morning. That leaves just Haydock which surprisingly didn’t need to inspect on Friday afternoon after pick-up in temperatures meant the track was raceable on Friday. There will be an inspection at 8am on Saturday morning to decide if racing can go ahead. A lot depends on how sharp the frost is on Friday night. If it drops to minus -2 or-3 then things could get interesting. I wonder what fun and games we can expect tomorrow morning. It’s not like we haven’t been here before with Haydock.
With Ascot and now Taunton off. ITV plan to cover four races from Haydock and four from Lingfield’s all-weather card. I have had a look at all eight races and Saturday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Haydock
The going at Haydock is being described as heavy so it’s going to be very testing.
1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (1m 7 ½ f)
Only likely favourite Pembroke has winning form on heavy ground.Pembroke is improving with racing and bids for a hat trick after wins at Wetherby & Ludlow. Worth his place in Graded company. Chasing Fire is his main rival. The 6-year-old won a bumper last spring and has won both his starts over hurdles. Another on the upgrade and worth his place in this company. If he handles the more testing ground, he won’t be far away. War Soldier a winner at Newcastle on his second start over hurdles, followed up over C&D last month. He probably needs further in this company but the more of a stamina test the better his chance.
2:05 – The New One Unibet Hurdle (Grade 2) (1m 7 ½ f)
Epatante runner-up to stablemate Constitution Hill on both starts this season is the one they must beat. He class could get her home, but heavy ground has to be of concern for the short-priced favourite. I Like to Move It was a smart novice hurdler last season and looked to have improved further when making most to win the Greatwood Hurdle on his seasonal return. Disappointed back their last time but better expected here. Like the favourite, heavy ground is an unknown for the 6-year-old. One runner who won’t have any concerns with the heavy ground is Jason The Militant who is having his first start since joining Philp Kirby. His Irish form entitles him to serious consideration and he’s not one to dismiss easily given his liking for testing ground.
2:40 – Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (3m 1 ½
A poor turnout with just six set to meet the starter for this valuable Limited Handicap Chase. Bristol De Mai and Fontaine Collonges. It’s the former’s favourite track, he loves heavy ground, and he won the race way back in 2017. He could easily roll back the years and win it again. Fontaine Collonges won over C&D two starts back and looked an improving staying handicap chaser before finding 3m around Kempton to much of a speed test. Must have a good chance of giving Venetia Williams a hat trick of wins in the race.
Empire of Steel was well fancied (4/1) for last year’s race. However, he never travelled or jumping with any fluency and was pulled up. Well suited to bottomless ground. The 9-year-old ran better on his seasonal return than his 4 ½ lengths 7th of 13 to Brave Seasca at Aintree suggests and is a big contender.
Cooper’s Cross looks interesting for the step up to 3m+ and I think he’s capable of defying his present mark, but heavy ground is a bit of an unknown.
No going concerns for Dr Kananga he ran below market expectations in the Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree last time. He’s better than he was able to show last time and could get an uncontested lead here.
3:10 – Racing TV Club Day Handicap Hurdle (3m ½ f)
Broadway Boy won a novices handicap hurdle at Aintree last month. The 5-year-old was well suited to the step to 3m last time and there should be more improvement to come from him. He’s vying for favouritism with the De Legislator who made it 2-2 over hurdles and seemed to relish heavy ground when winning at Kelso 23-days ago. Like Broadway Boy there should be more to come the 6-year-old. Bells Of Peterboro is a consistent staying handicap hurdler who goes well on testing ground. The 8-year-old returned to hurdles with a solid enough effort when a 4 ¼ length 2nd of 10 at Chepstow 25-days ago. A 3lb rise makes life tougher but he should remain competitive albeit he doesn’t have the upside of the two mentioned. Steller Magic was back to form last time when a ¾ length 2nd of 11 at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He’s 4lb higher here but is unexposed over 3m and isn’t ruled out.
Lingfield
Ryan Moore teams up with George Boughey for four rides at Lingfield. Paris Light (1:37) and All The King’s Men (2:12) are both favourites for the first two races on ITV. Clearly both must be respected but look worth taking on at their present odds.
1:37 – Dream Harder made it 3 from 3 since joining Ian Williamswhen beating eight rivals at Newcastle 24-days ago. He’s up 5lb but given his present vein of form should give Paris Light a big race and I prefer him at 5/1 or bigger. Pistoletto is a on bit of a losing run but he’s dropped down to a good mark and Billy Loughnane takes off a handy 7lb.
2:12 – All the Kings Men faces 11 rivals in the 7f handicap with plenty in with a chance including Secret Strength and Shoot To Kill. The former whilst on a bit of a losing run was an encouraging 2 length 8th of 12 here (7f) three weeks ago. That was his first start for 4 months and will be sharper today with a return to 7f a positive. Shoot To Kill probably needed the run when returning from an 8 month layoff at Kempton two weeks ago. A previous C&D winner he won here over a mile last January and races off the same mark here.
2:47 – Eight fillies line-up for the Lingfield feature the Class 2talkSPORT Winter Oaks Fillies’ Handicap (2:45). We have a strong favourite in Al Agaila. The 4-year-old put up a career best effort when beating one of today’s rivals Makinmedoit, by 2½ lengths in the Oaks Trial here over C&D last month. Even with a 10lb pull in the weights its hard to see the runner-up reversing places here. An 11lb rise in the weights makes life tougher for Al Agaila but she looks a filly very much on the upgrade.
Morgan Fairy produced a career best when winning here over a mile three weeks ago. The step up to 1m 2f threatens to bring out more improvement in the 4-year-old and she should go well.
Charlie Fellowes has a couple of contenders in Tequilamockingbird and Purple Ribbon. The latter looks the pick of his pair after her neck second of 9 to Belloccio in Listed race (1m 4f) at Kempton in November. That was a much improved effort by the lightly raced 5-year-old and although she’s now up 12lb the top weight is very much respected.
3:22 – The booking of Billy Loughnane for Embour takes the eye and he could out run big odds on a going day. The Bell Conductor won his first three starts after switching to the Paul Midgley yard but wasn’t seen to best effect when 5th of 7 at Southwell 20-days ago on his return from a 4 month absence. Capable of better than last time and has a handy low draw for a prominent racer. Strong Power is another with a handy low draw in stall 1. A three time C&D winner is respected in the returning blinkers.
Navan
1:07 – Navan Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) (2m 4f)
Fifteen have been declared to go to post for the a competitive looking Navan feature race.
Drop The Anchor took advantage of a lenient flat mark when winning the November Handicap at Naas when last seen in action. The 9-year-old returns to hurdling on a fair enough mark with top conditional jockey Aidan Kelly taking off a handy 5lb.
HMS Seahorse progressed well over hurdles last season winning a Fairyhouse maiden before finishing a 3 ½ length 4th od 21 in the Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The 5-year-old has been gelded since disappointing on the flat in the Irish Cesarewitch at the end of September. Likely capable of better over hurdles, should stay 2m 4f and can close if ready to roll after his absence.
Betting Advice:
Haydock
2:40 – Dr Kananga – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:10 – Bells Of Peterboro – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Lingfield
1:37 – Dream Harder – 1pt win – 6/1 @Bet365
2:12 – Secret Strength – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Bet365 and Shoot To Kill – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365
2:47 – Purple Ribbon – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365
Navan
1:07 – HMS Seahorse – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John