Hi all,
Saturday’s feature race is the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at 3:37, which boasts £150,000 in guaranteed prize money. Twelve have stood their ground for the feature race which is slightly more than I was expecting earlier in the week. Kempton’s undercard features three Grade 2 contests: the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at 1:50, the Pendil Novices’ Chase at 2:27, and the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at 3:00.
Meanwhile, Newcastle hosts Eider Chase Day, headlined by the marathon Betting.Bet Eider Handicap Chase at 2:08, run over 4m 1½ f distance. This race often serves as a pointer indicator for races like the Grand National, Scottish Grand National, and Midlands Grand National. Thirteen were declared for this year’s race which could be a gruelling test of stamina in what will be testing ground.
Additionally, the Group 3 BetUK Winter Derby Stakes, normally held at Lingfield, will take place at Southwell this year. Among the six runners are last year’s winner Lord North, and Charlie Appleby trained Military Order.
There are now eight races live on ITV Saturday afternoon. Five are from Kempton, two from Southwell, including the Winter Derby, and the Eider Chase at Newcastle. Kempton’s extra race is the Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle (1:15). It’s a race I wasn’t anticipating looking at but looks likely to provide the biggest field of the Kempton card.
Kempton
1:15 – Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (
Up For Parol third in last season’s Lanazarote Handicap Hurdle over C&D was well beaten last time in this year’s race but he’s down to a good mark when reviving. It probably won’t be here though as his first preference is for Chepstow (1:58).
Top weight Pentland Hills isn’t the same horse as when winning the Triumph Hurdle as a juvenile in 2019. However, there was more to like about his 1 ¾ length 2nd of 9 at Doncaster last time. That was the 9-year-old’s first start for 11 months and he should be sharper for that run. He wouldn’t want the ground to be to testing with good to soft ideal.
Samuel Spade looked like an improver when winning a Taunton handicap hurdle two starts back. Struggled up in class in the Lanzarote here last time but is back in calmer waters here for a yard among the winners.
Chris Gordon saddled the 2022 winner of this race, so you must consider his runner Sea Invasion. The 6-year-old is one of the least exposed of the line-up having had just three starts over hurdles. He posted a career best last time when a 5 ½ length 4th of 10 here (2m). Shaped like a step up in trip would suit last time and a mark of 114 on handicap hurdle looks workable. Soft ground would be a bit of an unknown though.
Verdict: Despite slight ground reservations Sea Invasion is the selection.
1:50 – Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m
Five of the six runners are last time out winners.
Kalif Du Berlais looked a high-class prospect when making it 2-2 over hurdles stable debut for Paul Nicholls over C&D last month. Open to plenty of improvement and clear claims but plenty short enough in the betting.
Givemefive also made it 2-2 over hurdles when winning at Warwick last month. He jumped neatly for a juvenile last time and is open to further improvement.
Peking Opera, trained on the flat by Aidan O’Brien, made a successful start to his hurdling career when winning at Sandown three weeks ago. There should be more to come from him with experience.
Captain Marvellous is having his first start since winning over C&D 89 days ago. He should do even better with improved jumping. He’s another to consider in an intriguing renewal of the race.
Verdict: Givemefive getting 5lb from Kalif Du Berlais gets the nod, but I think it’s a more competitive race than the odds suggest.
2:27 – Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Another small field Graded contest with five set to meet the starter.
Blow Your Wad got off the mark at the second attempt over fences when winning a C&D handicap on Boxing Day. Below par and not looking like he was suited to Cheltenham last time. Likely to bounce back returned to a flatter track and the first time cheekpieces are applied.
Tahmuras improved for the fitting of the cheekpieces when winning at Aintree on Boxing Day. Ran just as well when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 3 at Exeter last time. Had looked set to win when hanging left on the run in that day which must be slight concern here. On the plus side trainer Paul Nicholls has an exceptional record in the race – 11 winners from 17 runners 68% +13.8, 12 placed since 2008.
Arclight has won all three starts over fences improving her RPR’s with each run. Her jumping was excellent when winning at Wincanton last time and although she’s got to improve to win this stepped into a Graded company there’s every chance the 5-year-old can. Really testing ground would be an unknown but she gets a useful age and mares’ allowance from her rivals. Would be a bet at 5/1 if the ground dried out.
Verdict: If the ground was good to soft or better, I would be with Arclight. If it’s soft I just prefer the claims of Blow Your Wad over Tahmuras.
3:00 – Coral Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m
Another race that Paul Nicholls has targeted. Since 2008 he’s had 4 winners from 17 runners 24% +12.42, 8 placed. He saddles recent Musselburgh score Panjari. The 6-year-old seemed to improve for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces last time and can’t be totally dismissed although he must give 3lb to his seven rivals.
Lump Sum and Fiercely Proud were separated by ¾ length when second and third to Jeriko du Reponet in a similar race at Doncaster last month. Neither looked particularly suited to a slowly run race last time and must be respected here. Lump Sum looks open to more improvement of the pair, but both have claims.
Secret Squirrel got as close to Jeriko du Reponet, as Fiercely Proud did, when runner-up to that one at Newbury two starts back. Runner-up again last time at Taunton but he’s a previous C&D winner and can’t be ruled out.
Verdict: Not a race I’m getting involved in, but Lump Sum would be the token pick.
3:37 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m
Flegmatik, last year’s runner-up, bounced back to winning way over C&D last month. He looked short at 4/1 earlier in the week but has eased since. Despite carrying an extra 3lb, his liking for the track gives him solid claims.
Killer Kane, a dual C&D winner, was only fifth last year. Don’t underestimate him—he’s a reliable jumper, and his 12/1 odds seem fair.
Bowtogreatness, still seeking that elusive win over fences, went close in a valuable 3m 1f handicap chase at Aintree last April. Had winning form on testing ground over hurdles but best form over fences so far on good. His mark suggests he’s a contender and this has been the target
The Chris Gordon-trained Lord Baddesley has been supported in the ante-post betting. This 9-year-old produced a career best when finishing a close second to Inch House at Newbury last time. With stamina for 2m 6 ½ f, he might even stretch to 3 miles. Keep an eye on him, especially if the ground dries out.
The prospect of soft ground and the addition of the first-time blinkers makes Blackjack Magic of interest. The winner of the Badger Beers Handicap Chase at Wincanton (soft) in November. He hasn’t been disgraced on either start since on good ground and was still bang there before a mistake two out at Sandown last time. One for the shortlist if getting his ground.
Verdict: Given the size of the field I can’t justify more than two picks. Soft ground means I can’t let Blackjack Magic go unbacked. Killer Kane C&D form makes him a contender and I think he’ll run better than he did in last year’s race. Flegmatik is another who goes well around here. He’s started to drift, probably concerns over testing ground, out to a backable price. Bowtogreatness has been aimed at this race all season which means he needs respect and is on a mark he can win off.
Newcastle
2:08 – Betting.Bet Eider Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 4m 1 ½ f
One of the longest races in the racing calendar and can be a severe test of stamina even on good ground but on close to heavy it will be attritional, and you can see plenty not completing.
Anglers Crag has won his three starts since joining the Brian Ellison yard from David Pipe. He’s 11lb higher than when beating Captain Quintat Musselburgh last time. The runner-up went in on Sunday, so the form looks solid enough. He’s going the right way and could improve for a significant step up in trip but 100/30 looks short enough to me.
Major Dundee won the Midlands Grand National last season and he’s a thorough stayers but needs to bouce back from a low ley effort last time. The same sentiment applies Flower Of Scotland. The mare looked laboured on her seasonal return when pulling up at Carlisle. However, she’s been given a 111-day break, and the yard is in much better form now.
Fenland Tiger has won his last two at Doncaster and latterly here (2m 7 ½ f) 25 days ago. Up 6lb in a better race. However, he’s going the right way and is capable of more improvement over fences. He stays 3m 2f and looks set for a good run.
Top weight The Galloping Bear was an excellent 2 ½ length 2nd of 13 in last year’s race. He hasn’t been close to that level of form on three subsequent starts including when a well beaten 8th of 14 in Warwick’s Classic Chase last time. He’s down to his last winning mark, loves the mud and has Each way claims if bouncing back.
Verdict: As with the valuable Kempton handicap chase three selections can’t be justified although unlike that race it’s a slightly easier call to make. Do you go with a thorough stayer or do you go with a horse that’s going the right way and has the potential to better over a longer distance?
I could be totally wrong, but I think Brian Ellison purchased Anglers Crag to win this race. Unbeaten on all three starts since joining the yard he’s got a favourites chance. Major Dundee is a string stayer at 4m but is vulnerable to better treated rivals. The same sentiment applies to last year’s runner-up The Galloping Bear although Joe Anderson does take off a handy 5lb of the top weights back. Flower Of Scotland is another who stays well and is on a competitive mark off 120. That leaves the improving Fenland Tiger who’s got solid chance, if staying today’s marathon trip.
Southwell
2:45 – BetUK Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
Clarendon House, 2-2 on the tapeta including over C&D two starts back, wasn’t disgraced when a 2 ½ length 4th of 13 in a Group 2 at Meydan 29 days ago. A better horse on the synthetics he’s the one to beat on Official Rating’s (OR’s).
Hiya Maite, a dual C&D winner albeit at a lesser level, has only finished outside the first three once on seven starts here. He looked better than ever when winning here 57 days ago. Forced into a better race after his latest success and has 15lb to find with Clarendon House on OR’s but has each way claims at a track that suits.
Verdict: Clarendon House is the one to beat and the likely winner with Hiya Maite appealing at big odds each way.
3:20 – BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 3f
Just the six for the Southwell feature but you can make some sort of case for four of them.
Lord North was a comfortable winner of this race last year when it was run at Lingfield. Today’s extra furlong and a different surface ask new questions of the 8-year-old, but this four-time Group 1 winner remains the one they all must beat. First run since last March but goes well fresh.
Tyrrhenian Sea was a 3 ¼ length runner-up to Lord North 12 months ago and it’s hard to see him reversing places with the favourite this time around.
Military Order won the Lingfield Derby Trial at Lingfield last May before finishing last of 14 in the Derby (9/2). The 4-year-old bounced back to form after a gelding operation when a head 2nd of 6 in the Winter Derby Trial over C&D last month. Needs to build on that effort and in with a chance if he does.
Eydon is the one intriguing of the six runners. The 5-year-old has been off the track since finishing a 4 ¼ length 4th of 15 in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket two years ago. Now with Andrew Balding he’s got form on the surface and if retaining his old ability wouldn’t be far away stepped up in trip.
Verdict: For all his clear claims, a different surface and one furlong longer trip make Lord North vulnerable. That offers Military Order a good opportunity to return to winning ways. The long absent Eydon is the wild card. If he’s retained much of his old ability, he could beat both.
Betting Advice:
Unlike recent weeks today’s preview also includes selection in part due to the fact that I won’t be around on Saturday morning to send them out.
Kempton
1:15 – Sea Invasion – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1:50 – Givemefive – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:37 – Blackjack Magic – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Killer Kane – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Newcastle
2:08 – Fenland Tiger – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and Anglers Crag – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Southwell
2:45 – Hiya Maite – 0.5pts each way – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Sunday’s Fontwell card is another casualty of the wet weather but there’s a competitive Naas card so there’s likely to be a selection or two from that meeting. Watch your inboxes for updates.
Cheers
John