Hi all,
Saturday’s big race action comes from three tracks: Ascot, Haydock, and Wincanton.
The best race quality wise is Ascot’s Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase (3.36). Venetia Williams saddles main British trained Cheltenham Gold Cup hopeful L’Homme Presse. His three rivals include previous C&D winner Pic D’Orhy and Ahoy Senor. It’s an intriguing enough race which L’Homme Presse should win. However, despite being a previous C&D winner I think he’s better going left-handed. It looks like a race I’ll just sit back and watch rather than have a bet in.
It’s now an eight-race card at Haydock where the feature is the Virgin Bet Grand National Trial (3.15). Eleven were declared for this handicap chase. They include previous course winners Iron Bridge and Famous Bridge. Recent Warwick Classic Chase winner My Silver Lining and 2021 Welsh Grand National winner Iwilldoit.
Down at Wincanton there were five declared for the Grade 2 Jennings Bet Kingwell Hurdle (2:05). The five include Rubaud, Nemean Lion and the mercurial Goshen who won the race in 2021 & 2022.
ITV Racing are covering the best of the action from Ascot, Haydock, and Wincanton this afternoon.
As ever, I’m looking at all seven races being covered live by ITV on Saturday afternoon starting at Ascot.
Ascot
1:50 – Sodexo Live! Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m
Just the five have been declared for the first of the live ITV races from Ascot. Despite the small field I think it’s a more competitive race than the Grade 1 later on the card. You can make a decent case for four of the five runners.
Grade 1 winning novice hurdle winner Apple Away finds herself at the head of the betting. The mare finished runner-up to the useful Grey Dawning in a Grade 2 at Warwick 35 days ago and has to have a big chance getting weight from her four rivals.
The favourite’s main market rivals are Brave Kingdom and Kilbeg King. The former made it 2-2 over fences when winning a Newbury novices handicap 59 days ago. That form is good, and he looked to have improved for the step up to 3m last time. Well worth his place in Graded company and in the mix. Kilbeg King improved when a 14 ¼ length 3rd of 6 to Il Est Francais in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton last time. He’s very much in with a chance if getting a decent test of stamina.
I was hoping to see Henry’s Friend line-up in the handicap chase (3:00). So, it’s interesting trainer Ben Pauling opts to run him here. He’s won his last two starts over fences and hasn’t stopped his improvement just yet. He’ll need to progress again though to win but the cheekpieces are applied for the first time.
2:25 – Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 3 ½ f
A cracking field of 16 for a race with £50,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Rare Edition, a useful novice hurdler in the early part of last season, has returned to form on his two starts in handicap company. A good second at Doncaster on his seasonal return he backed up that effort when winning at Kempton (2m) 35 days ago. Up only 3lb for his latest success and Harry Cobden stays in the saddle. Steps up in trip here, should stay, and high on the shortlist.
Bad has placed on three starts this season without winning. He’s had wind surgery since his last run 57 days ago and the cheekpieces go on for the first time. Has the talent to win off his present mark if staying today’s longer trip.
Irish Hill won this corresponding race last year from a 3lb higher mark. He hasn’t been at the level form since, but the handicapper is giving him a chance even without Freddie Gingell taking off 5lb. One to consider.
Santos Blue was a progressive novice handicap hurdler in the second half of last season, winning three times. The 7-year-old returned to winning ways for the first time this season at Wetherby last time. Up 5lb and in a deeper race but must be considered a player.
Hyland won his first two starts this season before finishing a 7 ½ length 3rd of 12 to Ed Keeper at Newbury 78 days ago. The sounder the surface the better his chance and unlike several of his rivals his stamina is guaranteed having won at 3m.
3:00 – Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m
Ten have been declared, albeit only nine will run as Iron Bridge will take his place in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, for this valuable handicap chase. Most of the horses who were on my shortlist for the race earlier in the week weren’t declared, leaving just two.
Dual C&D winner Victtorino didn’t seem to enjoy the drop back to 2m 4f at Cheltenham last time and he should do better back at Ascot. I still think he remains capable of better and has a favourites chance.
Shan Blue is very treated on his best form, and it was a back to form effort here over 2m 3f last time. The return to 3m looks positive for the 10-year-old and he’s capable of going close if backing up his latest performance.
Larry, a former dual C&D winner took advantage of a drop-in class when beating three rivals at Plumpton was back to winning ways 26 days ago. Up 2lb and back up in Class but has each way claims in an open race.
Top weight Threeunderthrufive has finished runner-up on both starts this season and wouldn’t be winning out of turn. Edging up the weights without winning and may be better over a bit further.
Revels Hill is having his first start since finishing an 8-length 3rd of 16 to Kitty’s Light in the Bet365 Gold Cup (3m 4 ½ f) at Sandown in April. He also finished third in this race last year when doing his best work at the finish Another who probably needs further than three miles. He’s on a fair mark and has solid each way claims if ready to roll on his return.
3:36 – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5f
No, your eyes haven’t deceived you, the race is due to go off at 3:36. How disrespectful the day’s most valuable horse race going off at such a time as if it was greyhound race at Sunderland,
L’Homme Presse returned from a 13-month absence to win at Lingfield 27 days ago and is a best priced 4/6. On OR’s he should win this but there is a slight niggle that he might bounce after a big performance last month. He does need to win this to be a serious Gold Cup contender.
Previous C&D winner Pic D’Orhy hasn’t been out of the first two on his last seven starts and should give his running. He was runner-up to Shishkin in last year’s race.
Ahoy Senor comes alive in the second half of the season and looked to be working his way back to form at Cheltenham last time. He’s not the most reliable of jumpers and maybe better going the other way around.
As I mentioned at the start of this preview it’s a race to watch rather than bet in for me.
Haydock
It’s heavy at Haydock and there are two races live on ITV from the Lancashire track.
2:40 – Virgin Bet Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f
Botox Has and Red Risk were separated by a length when the pair were first and second in a Grade at Wetherby in November. Red Risk is 2lb better off with the winner so there won’t be much between the pair once again, but I think Botox Has who likes soft and is former C&D winner can come out on top once more.
Wakool won this last season, but this year’s race is stronger than 12 months ago and I can’t see him following up this year’s race.
A bigger threat to Botox Has & Red Risk could come from Sounds Russian. The 9-year-old is having his first since being brought down in last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. If he can reproduce his improved chase form back over the smaller obstacles he’s in with a chance. Likely this is a prep race for a return to fences.
3:15 – Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 4 ½ f
Eleven are set to meet the starter for Saturday’s big handicap.
Welsh Grand National Runner-up Iron Bridge just headed the ante post betting from Warwick’s Classic Chase winner My Silver Lining. Of the pair I prefer the claims of the latter who improved for the step up to 3m 5f last time and is unexposed over marathon trips.
Iwilldoit was one place and a length behind Iron Bridge in the Welsh Grand National and is 2lb better off. He’s likely to give his running once again but Iron Bridge might be capable of more progress.
Famous Bridge never got going dropped back to 3m and good ground when pulling up in Doncaster Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase three weeks ago. The 7-year-old is 2-2 at Haydock and softer ground and a step up 3m 4f should see him in a better light.
Possible Irish challenger Yeah Man was a strong finishing ¾-length 2nd of 10 to Victtorino in Premier Handicap at Ascot (3m) last time. He’s interesting stepped up in distance but he’s 0-8 over fences and faces much more testing ground here.
Fontaine Collonges wasn’t at her best when well beaten by My Silver Lining at Warwick 35 days ago. The mare is better judged on her win in the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby two starts back. A previous course winner, the mare was a beaten favourite in last year’s race when the ground wasn’t soft enough. She can’t be totally dismissed if getting genuinely soft ground, but this could be too competitive for her.
Wincanton
2:05 – Jennings Bet Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) – 1m 7f
A race that has in the past been considered a Champion Hurdle Trial. None of this year’s five runners can be considered even place contenders for this year’s Cheltenham’s race.
Rubaud has improved again this season, winning his first two starts and finishing runner-up to Constitution Hill in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Only 4th of 5 to Lossiemouth at Cheltenham last time but a return to going right-handed is a plus but better ground would be more suitable.
Nemean Lion the Welsh Champion Hurdle on his Ffos Las return and would have finished closer than fifth in the Greatwood Hurdle but for errors at the last two hurdles. Posted a career best on RPR’s when 1 ¼ length 2nd of 19 in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2m 5f) at Kempton last month. Looked suited by the step up in trip last time but still respected on ground that will suit.
The mercurial Goshen won this in 2021 & 2022 but hasn’t been in much form on his three starts this season. Needs the fitting of the first-time blinkers to have a big impact to win even returned to a C&D that has suited him so well in the past.
Irish challenger Colonel Mustard was subject to good support earlier in the week. Not as good on his two starts over fences this season but a return to hurdling makes of him of interest. Not the easiest to win with but in with a big chance on ratings.
Betting Advice:
Today’s final selections will be with you in the morning as per usual. There’s likely to be some selections on Sunday so watch your inboxes for updates.
Cheers
John