Hi all,
Ok, it’s not as stellar as last weekend but there’s some good action this weekend.
Its Betfair Hurdle Day at Newbury and there are likely to be plenty of stars on show. The feature race of a seven-race card is of course the Betfair Hurdle (3:35). Sadly just 14 stand their ground for the race which is poor turnout for the most valuable handicap hurdle run in Britain during the winter season.
There are also two Grade 2 contests. The Betfair Denman Chase (2:25) and the Game Spirit Chase (3:00). Two-time King George VI Chase winner Clan Des Obeaux missed the Dublin Racing Festival and last year’s runner-up will bid to go one better than 12 months ago
There’s also an interesting card at Warwick with the feature race being the Grade 2 Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (2:05). Where leading British Arkle Chase hope Edwardstone,faces just four rivals but they do include Third Time Lucki and Brave Seasca, in his bid for a four timer over fences and strengthen his Arkle claims. The best of the action from both tracks will be live on ITV4.
Sunday sees the Irish Grand National Trial at Punchestown and there’s a decent looking card at Exeter.
My bet of Saturday Editeur Du Gite in Newbury’s Game Spirit Chase is now a non-runner after having been found to have a low blood count on Thursday.
The Paul Nicholls horses haven’t been finishing of their races and even the trainer has been concerned about their well-being. He has four big fancies running at Newbury this afternoon so it’s either going to be a huge day for the trainer or a poor one.
Prepare yourself for long Saturday preview today. The reward for ploughing through it all is my betting advice which is at the end of the piece.
Newbury
Its good to soft but no rain is forecast to arrive before racing on Betfair Hurdle Day. The first race on the Newbury’s seven race card is a good one although its not on ITV.
1:15 – Betfair Cheltenham Roarcast Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 7 ½ f
Just the six but it’s a fascinating little race and they do include top-weight and Grade 1 Novice chase winner Bravemansgame. A best priced 7/2 for the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at next months Cheltenham Festival. He surely wins this, even off top weight, if he’s to win at Cheltenham. Deman won this as a novice but it was a level-weights race then and not a handicap. Yard form is a big worry though with Paul Nicholls just 1-32 in the past two weeks.
My National Hunt Chase ante post selection Pats Fancy is set to run. Now 2-3 over fences I think 3m on this sort of ground will be too short for the 7-year-old but I’m looking for a decent run from him with next month’s 3m 6f race in mind.
Grumpy Charlie and Fern Hill were first and second here in a 2m 6 ½ f handicap chase here 45-days ago. The winner jumped well that day and improved for the step up to 2m 6f last time. Up 7lb for that win. Today’s slightly longer trip will suit and he looks capable of winning more races. However, the ground was softer that day than likely here.
Fern Hill was 3 ¼ length behind Grumpy Charlie last time and gets a 3lb pull in the weights. Twice a winner over hurdles he will races over fences but like Grumpy Charlie faces different ground today.
1:50 – Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m
Polish showed improved form to win this race last year. He’s back down to the same mark but the 7-year-old faced 15 rivals 12 months ago and benefitted from a fast run race when coming from behind that day. There’s not a lot of forecast pace today which means I’m looking elsewhere for the most likely winner.
The Brimming Water looked an improving handicap hurdler when taking advantage of last hurdle mistake by Unexpected Party at Wetherby two starts back. The runner-up has boosted the form since by comfortably winning at Ascot. Ran almost up to that level of form when a 5 ¼ length 3rd of 8 at Haydock three weeks ago. That was his first start at 3m and I wasn’t totally convinced about his stamina that day. However, he’s worth another try over it and today’s better ground.
Butler’s Brief won three times last spring. He’s been poor on both starts this season both over hurdles and last time on his chase debut. Ground will suit him and he’s surely better than he’s been able to show this season. However, there a big question about his well-being.
Coeur De Lion, a high-class staying handicapper on the flat winning the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2020 and 4th in last year’s Chester Cup. Not as good over hurdles as on the level but has dropped down to mark he can run well off and the ability to win a race like this.
2:25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 7 ½
Paul Nicholls saddles double King George VI Chase winner Clan Des Obeaux who bids to go one better in the race than 12 months ago. Runner-up in this season’s King George. If a fully fit version of the horse turns up, he should win this.
The best of Clan Des Obeaux’s four rivals is recent Haydock winner Royale Pagaille. He needs to win this be a serious contender for next month’s Gold Cup. The track will suit and his jumping won’t be tested to much here but I’m not sure if he’s effective on good to soft as he does softer.
Imperial Aura must show he’s as effective over 3m as he is shorter. However, he was in the process of running a big race when falling in the Betfair Chase at Haydock two starts back. If he has stood up there’s a good chance, he would have finished ahead of Royale Pagaille that day. A small field suits but he’s not completed on his last four starts which is a concern. A definite in with a chance if bouncing back to something like his best.
It will be interesting to see how former Ladbroke Trophy winner De Rasher Counter fares of 489-day break and he looks one to note for the future should he come through it ok.
3:00 – Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) – 2m ½ f
With Editeur Du Gite out there are just four runners set to meet the starter. Still its an interesting race with three serious contenders. Last year’s winner Sceau Royal returns to fences for the first time over fences since finishing fifth in last season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham. Twice a winner over hurdles in the autumn. The drying ground is very much in his favour and he will be tough to beat.
Hitman, another of the Nicholls horses, is a progressive 2m chaser who put in a career best effort last time when runner-up to stablemate Greaneteen in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek at Sandown last time. Given his age he’s capable of better over fences.
Funambule Sivola runner-up in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on his seasonal return before seemingly failing to stay 2m 4f, under a big weight, on soft ground at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Much better dropped back to 2m when battling on to win a good ground handicap under 11-12 at Doncaster last time. That was a career best effort from the 7-year-old who isn’t out of this on going he’s effective on and a yard that remains in great form.
3:35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f
Just the 14 runners for a historic handicap hurdle which in the past two years has attracted 23 runners last year and 24 in 2020.
It’s a race that has been dominated in recent years by five- & six-year-olds. Novices also have an excellent record in the race.
Most of the big names have stood their ground for what looks a open looking renewal despite the small field with a half of the field having posted their best RPR’s on their last runs over the smaller obstacles.
Top-weight Soaring Glory bids for back-to-back wins in the race. He’s 14lb higher than 12 months ago but showed his well-being with a decisive win at Ascot in October, off 4lb lower. Hasn’t been seen to best effect in small field races on his last two starts. Must have a chance of retaining his crown on ground that will suit.
Fifty Ball hasn’t taken to chasing this season and returns to hurdling here. The 7-year-old was a useful handicap hurdler last season and was a 3-length 2nd of 23 to Soaring Glory in last year’s race. Gets to race of the same mark here and is 14lb better off with Soaring Glory. Trainer Gary Moore has won this 3 times since 2007. He’s another who fails the trends but looks to have good each way claims.
Moore has another possible in Royaume Uni. The 5-year-old has plenty of experience in handicap company. Comfortably winning at Plumpton in October before a personal best and good effort when a 4 ¼ length third of 12 to Lively Citizen at Cheltenham in December. Not disgraced when an 11-length 3rd of 11 to First Street at Kempton last time. Prefers a sounder surface so probably wasn’t quite at his best at Kempton.
Glory & Fortune finished a neck and one place in front of Soaring Glory when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 5 to Epatante in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle. He’s another seven-year-old though and he’s run in ten handicaps.
Broomfield Burg produced a useful turn of foot to see off four rivals in a Kempton novice hurdle in December. Prior to that the 6-year-old had shaped like a well handicapped horse when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 12 to Lively Citizen at Cheltenham.
First Street, a stablemate of Broomfield Burg, made it 3-4 over hurdles when comfortably winning on his handicap hurdle debut at Kempton last month. He’s been raised 9lb for that win but is going the right way and may capable of even better.
Jpr One has progressed with each of his three starts over hurdles. Last time out five-year-old ran away with a 2m 3f novice hurdle at Taunton. In the process looking a very useful hurdling prospect. Should continue to progress and won’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to 2m. Could be on a good mark for his handicap debut.
Paul Nicholls has a lively contender in Knappers Hill. Three from three in bumpers, including a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree on Grand National Day. A winner of his first two starts over hurdles. He lost his unbeaten record when a 5 ½ length 3rd of 5 to Jonbon in a Grade 2 at Ascot last time. That was a career best over hurdles and he can’t be discounted on his handicap debut.
No Metier here because of the drying ground so Harry Fry relies on Boothill. Despite being a 7-year-old he’s only had four starts under rules, two of them over hurdles. Won his sole start at Taunton last season and made a highly encouraging return from a 324-day absence when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 14 to Soaring Glory at Ascot in October. A beaten odds-on favourite for his chase debut last time and returns to hurdles here. Gets 4lb from Soaring Glory here and is capable of better.
Jetoile fails the age trend being a seven-year-old but he’s a novice on his handicap debut. Built on the promise of his hurdle debut by winning at Chepstow & Leicester. Before finishing a respectable 12 length runner-up to Supreme Novices favourite Constitution Hill in the Tolworth Hurdle. Likely won’t get his own way in front here but his form entitles him to go very close and there may be more to come.
Verdict: There are some strong race trends that favour the younger horses and less exposed hurdlers. However, I wouldn’t be totally surprised if this race produces a “trends buster”. Of the more experienced handicappers a strong pace will suit last year’s winner Soaring Glory and I’m expecting a good run at big odds from Royaume Uni. If you like Soaring Glory you must have the unexposed Boothill high on the shortlist. Of the novices I like the Henderson pair Broomfield Burg & First Street. Jetoile looks to have been forgotten about in the betting and Constitution Hill’s Supreme backers will be hoping for a good run from him, Jpr One and Knappers Hill are other novices who could be ahead of their marks for their handicap debuts.
Warwick
Three races live from Warwick on ITV this afternoon. The feature races have attracted just eight runners between them. It’s good to soft at Newbury and again little rain is forecast before the start of racing.
1:35 – Virgin Bet Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m 5f
Just the four runners and there doesn’t look to be much in the way of any pace unless Whitehotchillifili goes from the front dropped back in trip from last time.
On RPR’s there’s just 1lb between the front two in the betting Indefatigable and Marie’s Rock. The former must give the latter 6lb but she’s classy on her day and won this in 2020.
Marie’s Rock can be keen in her races and got hampered at the second and was pulled up in the Lanzarote Hurdle last time. She’s better than that performance and getting weight from Indefatigable is entitled to go close if her jockey gets her settled.
2:05 – Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m
Just the four here but you can make claims for three of them and it looks a cracker of a renewal. Edwardstone now favourite for the Arkle Novices Chase, bids for a four time over fences. A winner of novice chase over C&D in November. He’s since gone onto success in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown and then comfortably won the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices Chase under a penalty at Kempton over Christmas.
It won’t be a walk in the park for Edwardstone though. Third Time Lucki won his first two starts over fences before doing to much out in front when a well beaten third behind Edwardstone in the Henry VIII. Jumped much better when easily seeing off two rivals in a Grade 2 at Doncaster two weeks ago. Was said to have suffered a slight overreach after his Doncaster success but he’s out quickly here. Remains a potential Grade 1 horse and I would expect him to get closer to Edwardstone than he did at Sandown.
Improving 2m handicap chaser Brave Seasca has 14lb to find with Edwardstone on official ratings but does get 5lb from him here. The 7-year-old is 3-4 over fences and made it 2-2 over C&D when comfortably seeing off Sky Pirate by seven lengths last month. A best priced 12/1 with bet365 for the Grand Annual handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. A race I think he can go close in. However, given his progressive profile he looks worth a go in graded company.
3:15 – Virgin Bet Warwick Castle Handicap Chase – 2m 4f
Not the best race of the day but it’s a competitive handicap chase and we have good sized field of 11 runners. Plenty of exposed handicappers and a couple of unexposed types.
Lieutenant Rocco looked a useful novice chaser and jumping well when winning over an extended 2m 7f at Ffos Last in February. Off the track for almost 12 months when pulled up behind Two For Gold in the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield. Once again, he jumped well and was still there four out before a lack of race fitness too its toll and he quickly folded. He’s had his issues but has plenty of ability.
Cheddleton 2-7 over fences. The 7-year-old has placed on all three starts this season and is running well. First start beyond 2m 2f for him but if he stays won’t be far away again but probably needs the extra distance to eke out some improvement from his present mark.
Jacamar a winner at Kempton two starts back posted a career best on RPR’s when 5th of 10 at Cheltenham two weeks ago. He remains in form. This track will suit him better than Cheltenham but need to jump better than he did last time.
Irish raider Dinny Lacey must be of interest although his best Irish form has come on testing ground. One from ten over fences, that win coming in a Limerick novice chase in December 2020. The 8-year-old put in a career best on RPR’s when a 2-length 3rd of 14 to Spyglass Hill back at Limerick over Christmas. The first-time blinkers had the desired effect that day. Now 6lb higher but if the headgear continues to work, he has place claims.
Celebre D’Allen, trained by Philip Hobbs, looked fairly treated on his French chase. Off for 783-days he made a winning stable debut for Hobbs over hurdles at Haydock in December before improving again when following up 29-days later back at the same venue. Interesting back over the larger obstacles today but his best form in France come on testing ground and both this season’s Haydock wins were gained on heavy going. Today’s quicker ground asks another question of him. Has a big chance if he does handle it.
Our Power is one of the least exposed in the field over fences and made it 2-4 over the larger obstacles when beating three rivals at Huntingdon last month. He beat Jacamar by a head at Wincanton in December but is 3lb worse off here. Up 2lb for his latest success but he’s ground versatile and going the right way over fences.
Riders Onthe Storm would be a well handicapped horse on his best back form (Grade 1 Chase winner at Ascot in February 2020). The 9-year seemed to lose his way when with Nigel Twiston-Davies last season. Looked to have returned to form in the first-time tongue tie on his first start for Richard Hobson when a 3 ¼ length 2nd of 10 to Clan Legend at Aintree. Sadly, went backwards from his Aintree effort when a well beaten 12th of 16 at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Hard to say which horse will turn up here and the yard are struggling for winners.
Verdict: Cheddleton is consistent and shouldn’t be far away again. Celebre D’Allen is interesting back over fences but the ground would be a slight concern. Out Power is going the right way over fences and is only 2lb for his recent success. Riders Onthe Storm needs to bounce back from a poor run last time but is on a good mark. Add in Irish raider Dinny Lacey and Lieutenant Rocco, who given his good jumping could be well suited by the track, and you have the makings of an interesting handicap.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
2:25 – 1pt win – Imperial Aura – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – 1pt win – Jetoile – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Royaume Uni -22/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Warwick
2:05 – 1pt win – Brave Seasca – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:15 – 1pt each way – Lieutenant Rocco – 12/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 odds) and 1pt win – Cheddleton – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportbook
Cheers
John