Hi all,
Guess what? We lost Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth card to the freezing weather.
More frost is on the horizon this Friday night. They’ve got those frost sheets down Newbury but if the temperatures do dip below -3°C, we might have to kiss the races goodbye.
It’d be a real bummer to wave goodbye to Saturday’s races, especially with the Coral Gold Cup promising the most competitive handicap chase of the winter.
I was hoping for better news about Fairyhouse’s two-day December meeting. However, that track now faces an early morning inspection due to forecast sub zero temperatures overnight. Just in case that meeting is on I have looked at the Listed handicap chase.
Newbury:
1:40 – Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Jet Powered showcased his prowess with a maiden hurdle victory here a year ago. However, he’s been absent from the track since a disappointing outing on New Year’s Eve. Despite the setback, there’s confidence that he can deliver a stronger performance this time. At odds of 4/1, though, he short enough.
Returning after a 602-day absence, North Lodge, a promising 6-year-old, was a notable runner-up in a Grade 2 at Kelso and secured a solid third place in a Grade 1 at Aintree. With a racecourse debut victory under his belt, he enters this race with freshness and, like Jet Powered, has the potential to win on his handicap debut.
Cobblers Dream, initially fancied for a handicap hurdle on Friday’s card, opted for this race. The 7-year-old, a previous Lanzarote Hurdle winner, demonstrated promise with a 17-length third-place finish at Kempton 19 days ago, signaling potential for a return to something like his best.
Irish Hill is just 1lb above his last winning mark and badly needed his return at Kempton when ½ length and one place behind Cobblers Dream. He’s another very much in the mix here.
Verdict: Jet Powered returns from an 11 month absence on handicap debut and remains capable of better over hurdles. North Lodge is returning from an even longer absence but is another with the potential to be better than his mark and 2m 4f should suit. Cobblers Dream will be all the better for his recent season reappearance and is a big player. Irish Hill has dropped down to a good mark and is respected.
2:15 – Bet In Race With Coral Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Reg’ As The Gerry Feilden) (Premier H’cap) – 2m ½ f
Under Control end last season impressively with a valuable mare’s handicap hurdle win at Cheltenham and another triumph at Sandown. In the latter race she beat stablemate Iberico Lord, who claimed victory in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. Nicky Henderson, the trainer, has a strong record in this race, winning it three times in the last four years. While Under Control holds strong claims, her odds at 6/4 appear on the shorter side.
Brentford Hope secured his third win from seven starts over hurdles when winning over C&D (good to soft) last month. Despite facing a deeper field and an 11lb hike in weight, he remains open to improvement and, if the ground has sufficient give, could pose a challenge to the favorite.
Hansard, a 4 ½ length fourth in a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree last season, commenced this season encouragingly with a 4 ¼ length second in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton three weeks ago. With potential for further progress, he shapes up as a big contender.
Punta Del Este, seemingly on a decent mark, likely needed his recent return at Wetherby, although a question mark remains regarding a preference for softer ground on Saturday.
Bad stands out as an intriguing entrant among the nine runners. A hurdle winner in France, he ran in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival as a 5/1 shot and showed promise despite finishing 13th. On his seasonal reappearance at Ascot, he ran well for a long way, securing a 13-length 3rd of 12. Trainer Ben Pauling’s recent form and past success in this race make Bad one to watch.
Verdict: You can see why Under Control is favourite but she’s short enough to want to take her on. Brentford Hope and Hansard are capable of better in the sphere and it’s the former who appeals most of the pair. Bad is another who lurks on a winnable mark for a trainer with a good record in the race.
2:50 – Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 2f
A field of twenty has been declared for the weekend’s major betting race, a larger turnout than anticipated. While Ga Law is likely to head to Newcastle for the Rehearsal Chase, the competition remains fierce, with sponsors offering 6/1 the field on Thursday.
Corals favor Complete Unknown as their top pick. Trained by Paul Nicholls, the 7-year-old won on his seasonal return at Newton Abbot and finished runner-up to Gerri Colombe in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April. While possessing a favorable profile for the race, concerns linger about a preference for softer ground.
Monbeg Genius stands out on my shortlist, showcasing notable form with a strong performance in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. Despite a less-than-ideal seasonal reappearance at Ascot, where he pulled up after a mistake, the strategic plan in place since March suggests he was not given a hard race.
Last year’s winning trainer Dan Skelton, has another strong contender in Midnight River. A winner of a valuable handicap chase at Aintree on Grand National Day. A recent outing over hurdles at Wetherby should have him spot fitness wise. The 8-year-old favors some ease in the ground.
Irish challengers Mahler Mission and Stumptown carry strong claims. Mahler Mission’s potential victory at the Cheltenham Festival was halted by a fall two out. He looks on a good mark, but concerns arise about trainer John McConnell’s form. Stumptown, while needing improvement in jumping, is expected to fare well on better ground, and put in a strong performance when a neck runner-up in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The Sam Thomas duo of Stolen Silver and Our Power are both ground versatile and present credible claims. Stolen Silver, the pick of Sam Twiston-Davies, demonstrated improvement in his first start at 3m on his seasonal return at Chepstow. Our Power, a winner of two 3m handicap chases last season, carries each-way claims.
Bill Baxter, an improving handicap chaser, showcased potential with a Topham Chase win at Aintree in April. While needing his return at Carlisle, the 3m+ races this season could see further progress, provided the ground remains good to soft or worse.
Datsalrightgino, suited to better ground, aims to rebound from a subpar performance in the Old Roan Chase on his seasonal reappearance. Stamina beyond 2m 5f remains to be proven, making the 3m 2f trip uncertain. However, if he improves for the step up in distance, he’s a dark horse.
Verdict: It may not be the classiest renewal of the race but its an open looking contest. Monbeg Genius tops my shortlist but there’s plenty in with a chance. Complete Unknown has the right profile for the race, but drying ground would be a concern. I would be sweet on Mahler Mission but the trainer’s form puts me off. Midnight River is respected for last year’s winning yard. I would like the ground to be a bit softer for Bill Baxter who I think is a potential improver for the step up to 3m 2f. Stolen Silver and Our Power are both in the mix and are hard to split.
3:25 – Coral Get Closer To The Action Handicap Chase (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Unlike the Coral Cup, this race cut up at final declarations, leaving seven contenders. My two early fancies weren’t declared, making it a showdown between Master Chewy and Real Stone.
Master Chewy won on chase debut at Aintree and delivered an impressive second-place finish to Djelo three weeks ago. Despite a 6lb increase, he looks the most likely winner.
Real Stone, was fourth in the Aintree race won by Djelo, but likley needed the run and showcased a significant improvement with a bold jumping display to win at Haydock last Saturday. He can’t be discounted, but an 8lb higher mark makes life harder and he lacks the upside of Master Chewy.
Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond Master Chewy and Real Stone and my preference would be for the first named.
Fairyhouse
2:00 – EasyFix Equine Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 1f
Dancing On My Own was impressive in victory at Cheltenham 35 days ago, although he likely prefers better ground. On this occasion, my preference leans toward his stablemate, The Folkes Tiara, the choice of Rachel Blackmore. The 7-year-old secured a commendable 6 ¾ length 3rd of 14 to Dinoblue at the Punchestown Festival in April, his last appearance over fences. Following a triumph in a Downpatrick hurdle 142 days ago, he makes his first start since, but goes well fresh.
Grey Diamond, previously under Sam Thomas’s care, is a useful two mile chaser on his day and presents considerable intrigue on his debut for Gordon Elliott.
Fighting Fit demonstrated significant improvement, claiming victories in handicap chases at Galway and Listowel in August and September. Even with a 10lb weight increase after his latest win, might not prevent the 8-year-old from completing the hat trick.
Whiskeywealth, just in front of Dinoblue when falling at the last here in April, wasn’t at his peak behind that mare at the Punchestown Festival next time. However, a good 6 ¼ length fourth placed effort in a listed handicap chase at Cork on his seasonal return augers well for the season. The 7-year-old, comfortable on soft ground, races off a competitive mark.
Verdict: Fighting Fit has strong claims for completing the hat trick. Grey Diamond looks on a fair mark on his debut for Gordon Elliott. Whiskeywealth can win races off his present mark and can go close. The Folkes Tiara has just had the four starts over fences and will surely win races over the larger obstacles and can race off a handy light weight here.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
1:40 – North Lodge – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Irish Hill – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Ladbrokes & Bet365.
2:50 – Monbeg Genius – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Stolen Silver – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Bill Baxter – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Fairyhouse
2:00 – The Folkes Tiara – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Whiskeywealth – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power.
Cheers
John