Hi all,
As the festive season envelops us in its warmth and joy, I wanted to take a moment to extend my heartfelt gratitude to each one of you. Your support and shared passion for the sport have made this year another great journey.
Wishing you and your loved ones a Merry Christmas filled with warmth, happiness, and the magic of the season.
Given the upcoming week offers an abundance of racing, Saturday’s fields appear notably compact, as one might anticipate. Nevertheless, the competition promises to be fierce in several key races despite the smaller number of participants.
ITV4 are covering six races live on Saturday afternoon for from Ascot and a further two from Haydock.
Ascot
1:50 – Howden Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 3f
Cap Du Mathan likely needed his seasonal reappearance when a 6 ¼ length 4th of 9 to Boohill here (2m 1f) last month. The return to further is fine for the 8-year-old who has solid claims.
Triple Trade has returned in good order this season, winning at Cheltenham two starts back before finishing a 3-length 3rd of 8 to Boothill here 28 days ago. Looked need of further last time and has major claims given his current vein if form.
Shan Blue would look well treated on his back form but he’s pulled up on both starts this season and looks regressive. Hopes are pinned on the application of the first time cheekpieces reviving the 9-year-old.
Black Gerry’s ended last season with wins here (2m 1f) and Plumpton (2m 3 ½ f). Never sighted when pulling up in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham on his seasonal return. Not totally dismissed but needs a major bounce back.
Harper’s Brook is on a winnable mark when everything clicks but he can pull himself when hitting the front as occurred at Sandown in April when he looked to have the race won. Needs to be produced as late as possible and might not get the race set up for him.
2:25 – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m ½ f
Paisley Park, the winner of this race in 2020 & 2023 takes on 2021 winner Champ.
Paisley Park was beaten a head by Dashel Drasher at Newbury on his seasonal return and looks to have a good chance of reversing places with the winner on 6lb better terms.
Champ finished third to Paisley Park in last year’s renewal, but his form line on seasonal return is 1211211. Given his record first time up this is likely his seasonal target. Returns from wind surgery and has strong claims.
Crambo is a progressive staying handicapper, and the 6-year-old could be up to this level but looks plenty short enough to me.
The same sentiments price wise apply to West Balboa. The mare is a lightly raced improving staying hurdler who has won her last three starts and has only had one start beyond 2m 5f. Might prefer easier ground but not hard to see her doing well.
Paul Nicholls has a couple of lovely outsiders in Red Risk and Blueking D’Oroux. Red Risk proved his stamina for 3m when a length 2nd of 6 to Botox Has in a Grade 2 at Wetherby 49 days ago. On better ground, I think he can finish in front of the winner here and has place claims. Blueking D’Oroux is seemingly the pick of Harry Cobden. The 4-year-old made it 2-2 at Ascot when winning a Grade 2 (2m 3 ½ f) last month. Stamina for 3m has to be proven but he’s going the right way and improved for the step up in trip last time and could do so again. The better the better his chance.
3:00 – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) – 3m
Blackjack Magic jumped well to win the Badger Beer Handicap Chase (3m 1f) at Wincanton on his seasonal return. He’s 6lb higher now but has the potential for further improvement over fences. Trainer Anthony Honeyball won this race with Regal Encore in 2016 & 2019.
Victtorino won a C&D handicap chase (soft) last month. He’s up 4lb and has solid claims of following up. Yeah Man was coming with a big run in the same race when falling at the last in the same race. He would have finished second that day and must be respected. Flegmatik looked booked for third when unseating his rider at the last. He’s since finished runner-up here over 2m 5f and has place claims on ground that will suit.
Git Maker steps up in class here but he made a winning seasonal return at Lingfield last month and although 5lb higher he’s open to further improvement over fences.
Larry needed last month’s seasonal reappearance at Sandown. A dual C&D winner in the past, he’s just 1lb above his last winning mark. His jumping can be sketchy but with a clear round he’s not of this over C&D that suits.
3:35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy (A Handicap Hurdle) (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) – 1m 7 ½ f
Just the 11 have been declared for Saturday’s big betting race but it doesn’t make the race any easier to solve.
Iberico Lord looked well handicapped and proved that to be the case when winning the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. Going the right way but is 8lb higher and the ground won’t be as soft as last time.
Besides Iberico Lord trainer Nicky Henderson also saddles Impose Toi and Luccia. The first named is in the same colours as Iberico Lord and made it 3-5 over hurdles when winning a Class 3 handicap at Cheltenham last month. He’s now 10lb higher here but can’t be ruled out. Luccia was a 7-length 3rd in the Greatwood Hurdle and gets an 8lb pull with her stablemate here. Better ground will suit the mare, but she needs to be a stronger finisher than she was last time.
Hansard improved for the step into handicap company when winning the Gerry Feilden at Newbury three weeks ago. The top weight is just 4lb higher here and another bold showing seems likely on similar ground to last time.
Altobelli shaped with promise for this race when 2nd of 12 over C&D on his seasonal return 49 days ago. Lightly raced over hurdles he looks handicapped to go close. This has been the plan since, and trainer Harry Fry saddled the 2016 winner.
Falvoir, like trainer Dan Skelton’s last winner of the race Mohaayed he won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and is just 3lb higher. A solid second over C&D last time he’s got each way claims.
Nemean Lion finished 5th in the Greatwood and if he had jumped better would have finished closer to the first two. Ease in the ground suits so he might not be as happy on quicker ground.
No issues with drying ground for Salsada who was a good 9 ¼ length 5th of 10 to Rubaud in Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April. The mare returns from an 8-month layoff and could run better than her odds suggest.
Haydock
1:30 – Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f
Famous Bridge, Credo and Eleanor Bob were first, second and fourth respectively in a C&D handicap last month. Famous Bridge is up 6lb and Credo up 3lb for last time and at the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the three once more. Famous Bridge may have more to give given he doesn’t win his races by far. Eleanor Bob loves the mud and jumped really well last time, only giving best at the last on her return from a 626-day absence.
Enqarde took this corresponding race in 2021 and bounced back to winning ways at Warwick 45 days ago. Up 4lb and handicapped to be competitive. He handles soft ground well but I’m not sure about heavy.
Bill Baxter was an improving handicap chaser last season, henever got competitive in the Coral Cup at Newbury last time. Back in calmer waters and better suited to soft ground. I’m expecting a better run from the top weight who is unexposed beyond 3m.
Burrows Diamond was back to form when a 17-length 2nd of 5 to Zambella in Listed Mares’ Chase (2m 4f) at Aintree two weeks ago. She’s on a handy mark returned in handicap company and back up in trip. Ground versatile she can go well at a decent odds for Sue Smith.
2:05 – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 1m 7 ½ f
Jagwar missed a race at Ascot on Friday to come here. The 4-year-old is open to further improvement on handicap debut and is effective on testing ground.
Bois Guillbert a handicap hurdle winner at Kelso on seasonal return wasn’t disgraced when a 7 ½ length 3rd of 7 to the improving Blueking D’Oroux at Cheltenham, 56 days ago. On a fair mark on return to handicap company, if handling testing ground.
Goobinator relished the heavy ground when winning on the flat at Carlisle 53 days ago. That was the 7-year-old’s first run for 18 months. He’s handicapped to go close on his best efforts over hurdles and is another to consider.
The Churchill Lad got a good front running ride when a head 2nd of 9 at Musselburgh 23 days ago. This C&D suits front runners and if he settles out in front, he could be hard to pass. High on the shortlist.
Bubble Dubi was back to form when a 2-length 3rd of 12 returned to hurdles last time. A mark of 115 is workable but soft ground rather heavy would be preferable for the strong travelling 6-year-old.
Betting Advice:
Please note there’s no BOG at the time of writing.
Ascot
2:25 – Champ – 1pt win – 11/2 @ William Hill & Paddy Power and Blueking D’Oroux – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Yeah Man – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Larry – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Luccia – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Altobelli – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Haydock
1:30 – Burrows Diamond – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Bill Baxter – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:05 – The Churchill Lad – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365.
I will be back Boxing Day.
Cheers
John