Hi all,
Back to action on the track. It’s the last Saturday of action before Christmas and there’s an excellent six race card at Ascot with the highlights being the Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle (2:25) Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3:00) and the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (3:35). Sadly there will be no Buzz in the Long walk Hurdle as the 7-year-old has been ruled out of the race by season-ending injury.
There’s also a seven-race card at Haydock with the highlight being the Virgin Bet Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2:40). The ITV cameras are covering four races from Ascot and two from Haydock as part of a six-race programme on Saturday.
Once again, I’m just concentrating on those races where I have selections and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece. Let’s begin at the principle meeting Ascot.
Ascot
The going at Ascot is good to soft.
1:50 – Howden Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 3f
Palmers Hill looked a handicap chaser when following when winning at Wetherby last month after an eight month layoff. He’s up just 4lb for that success but is capable of better this being only his third start over fences. The drying ground will also suit the 8-year-old.
Knight In Dubai shaped well enough on his first start since unseating his rider at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival when 7 ¾ length 5th of 8 in a handicap chase at Aintree 42-days ago. He’s on a competitive enough mark although he may prefer softer ground.
Previous C&D winner Sully D’Oc AA was a respectable 2 ¼ length 3rd of 7 here (2m 1f) two starts back. Possibly found the race coming to quick, just seven days later, when a well beaten 6th of 12 at Newbury three weeks ago. The return to C&D will suit although interestingly the usual cheekpiece and tongue tie combination are discarded today.
2:25 – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m ½ f
Despite the absence of Buzz out its still an intriguing contest. Thyme Hill tops the OR’s but the Aintree Grade 1 winner and last year’s runner-up does have to bounce back from a poor run at Auteuil on his seasonal reappearance last month.
Last year’s winner Paisley Park bids for a third success the race. However, the 9-year-old doesn’t look in the same form as 12 months ago and I suspect he needs the ground softer these days. It was soft when he won in 2018 and heavy 12 months ago.
Paisley Park was 11 lengths behind Thomas Darby in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury 22-days ago. He does get a 6lb pull in the weights with the winner but on this ground, he will do well to finish ahead of the winner. Thomas Darby seemed to appreciate the fitting of the tongue tie last time and won with more in hand than his margin of victory suggests. Looks a big player here and arguably the value at present prices.
Add in Irish raider Ronald Pump who beat all bar Honeysuckle on his seasonal return and Champ who returns to hurdles for the first time since winning the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April 2019 and you have the makings of a competitive race.
3:00 – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 3m
Thirteen handicap chasers have stood their ground for this valuable prize.
Regal Encore will bid for a third win the race having been successful in 2016 & 2019. He also finished third in last year’s renewal. This could well be the 13-year-old’s final race and it’s hard to see him being out of the frame.
The ante post favourite is Belami Des Pictons. The 10-year-oldreturned from a 21-month layoff with an excellent 6-length 4th of 14 to Snow Leopardess at Bangor last month. He’s dropped down to handy mark but I wonder if first time up was the time to catch him.
Annsam ran well over hurdles last time. He remains likely capable of better over the larger obstacles and is the mix if he stays 3m.
Jerrysback is an unreliable jumper but if he was to put in a clear round is on decent mark.
Storm Damage is now 2lb below his last winning mark. However, his best form over fences has come at Cheltenham and over a bit further. He was also a disappointing 100/30 fav when pulling up at Cheltenham in October. Although softer ground will suit him.
Cloth Cap ran well for a long way when 6th of 21 in his bid for back-to-back wins in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury last time. Prior to that he had finished a respectable 4th of 11 at Cheltenham reappearance. Granted the top-weight must prove he can defy a mark of 150 but he’s very much respected on drying ground that will suit.
Verdict: A clear round and Jerrysback can win this. The problem is how likely is that? Annsam is another on a decent mark but has stamina to prove. Regal Encore loves it around here but is vulnerable to younger legs from a win perspective. Belami Des Pictons is on the high on the shortlist although I wonder if first time was the time to catch him. Cloth Cap is another capable of a big run on going that will suit.
3:35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy (A Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) – 1m 7 ½ f
Most of the of the leading fancies have stood their ground for the day’s feature race.
At the head of the betting is No Ordinary Joe who improved when 2 ¾ length 3rd of 19 to West Cork in Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on handicap debut at Cheltenham last month.
West Cork is 4lb worse off with No Ordinary Joe but there shouldn’t be much between the pair again with both open to more improvement. West Cork does also tick some of the key trends and trainer Dan Skelton has saddled the winner of the race twice since 2013.
Samarrive seemed to show improved form for facing soft ground when winning at Sandown last time. He’s up 11lb in a much better race here. However, the 4-year-old has only had four careers starts so is capable of better.
Garry Clermont posted a career best on RPR’s when a ¾ length 2nd of 9 over C&D (good) last month. He’s been raised 5lb for that effort but that was his first start since May and softer ground could suit him better. He could still rate higher.
Global Citizen is more exposed than most. The 9-year-old seemed to lose his way over fences but shaped with a bit more promise when 2nd of 8 at Doncaster last time. The first time cheekpieces seemed to spark him into life that day and there’s no doubt he’s become a well handicapped horse.
Goshen is making his handicap hurdle debut should he run on Saturday. It would be a great effort to win this off top-weight. However, he’s a former C&D winner and he shaped a bit better than his final position suggests when 4th of 5 to Buzz on his seasonal return here last month. He didn’t stay 2m 3f that day and will be better back at the minimum trip.
Tritonic was an 8 ½ length 5th of 19 to West Cork in Greatwood Hurdle on handicap debut last time. At the revised weights he would have to come under serious consideration. He shaped at Cheltenham like he might be worth a try beyond the minimum trip but he’s a former C&D winner and provided the ground isn’t too soft could go well.
Benson can be a tricky ride, as he again showed when 4th off 11 at Sandown two weeks ago. It’s worth noting, he was a 6-length 4th of 17 in this race last year, off 4lb higher. He shapes like needs further than the minimum trip but the forecast strong pace will suit him. Interestingly the first-time visor is applied today. If the headgear has the desired effect, he ‘s very much in the mix on the best of last season’s efforts.
Verdict: I had eight on my shortlist but I have narrowed them down to West Cork, the first-time visored Benson and Gerry Clermont.
Haydock
The going at Haydock is now soft all over..
2:40 – Virgin Bet Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f
Sixteen are set to meet the starter for Haydock’s feature race.
Last year’s winner Sam’s Adventure will bid for back-to-back successes and the 9-year-old will like the soft ground and has likely been aimed at the race again.
Mind you this year’s contest looks potentially deeper. Ante post favourite is the David Pipe trained Remastered who was still travelling well when taking a heavy fall four out in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury. If his confidence hasn’t been affected by that mishap, he will take some beating off a mark of 146.
Veteran former C&D winner Vintage Clouds loves it around Haydock. Two of his best four RPR’s have come over C&D and he’s just 2lb higher than when winning the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. His seasonal reappearance at Kelso wasn’t devoid of promise but he disappointing at Warwick last time. The return to the mud will suit and he can’t be dismissed if on a going day.
Fuji Flight, hails from the inform Ventia Williams yard. The 6-year-old should be suited by the testing ground and looks a decent mark based on his French form. Finished an encouraging 8 ¾ length 3rd of 9 at Lingfield on his seasonal return last month. Stamina for 3m 1f must be taken on trust but if he stays, he shouldn’t be far away.
Buzz De Turcoing is a progressive handicap chaser but he’s the least experienced of field over fences. The 7-year-old built on the promise of his Wetherby chase debut when beating four rivals at Ayr (good to soft) 19-days ago. He’s up 6lb for that success and this is a much hotter race but he won with more in hand than the official margin of 2 ½ length suggests last time. Won on heavy ground her last December so underfoot conditions shouldn’t phase him. I think he can defy of 129 over fences although is a tough race to do so.
Verdict: Remastered is a worthy favourite and most likely winner. The veteran Vintage Clouds will appreciate the return to the venue and soft ground. At the other end of the experience scale Buzz De Turcoing needs respecting.
3:15 –Virgin Bet Fives Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 3m ½ f
Mr Harp’s best efforts came around this time last season. A winner at Uttoxeter (2m 7 ½ f) last December, off 5lb lower, he then went on to finish a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 13 in a Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier at Warwick (3m 1f) the following month. Both those two performances came on heavy ground so soft ground around her should be an issue. The 8-year-old was doing his best work at the finish when 5th of 12 at Sandown (good to soft) 15-days ago. On a winnable mark if building on his Sandown effort. This race isn’t on ITV but he’s my idea of the best bet of the day.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
1:50 – 1pt win – Sully D’Oc AA – 8/1 @ Bet365
2:25 – 1pt win – Thomas Darby – 7/1 – Gen
3:00 – 1pt win – Belami Des Pictons – 5/1 – Gen and 1pt win – Cloth Cap – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
3:35 – 1pt win – West Cork – 8/1 @ William Hill, 0.5pts win – Benson – 14/1 @ Bet365 and 0.5pts win Garry Clermont – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Haydock
2:40 – 1pt win – Buzz De Turcoing – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and 0.5pts win Vintage Clouds – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Bet365
3:15 – 1pt win – Mr Harp – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Not sure if there will be any selections on Sunday. If not, it’s likely today’s selections will be the last until Boxing Day. If that turns out to be the case. I wish you all a healthy and as happy a Christmas as you can make it.
Cheers
John