Hi all,
I’m sending this in-depth Saturday Preview earlier than usual due to its length.
It’s not a vintage Cheltenham December meeting Saturday. It’s light on Graded races, no International Hurdle, but has some good betting opportunities for punters to get stuck into.
ITV Racing are covering five races live from Cheltenham and three from Doncaster on an eight-race programme.
As ever I’m focusing this preview on the ITV races.
Cheltenham
It’s a seven-race card at Cheltenham and just like Friday the first two races are not on ITV4.
12:05 – JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Novices’ Championship Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 2m 1f
An Bradan Feasa comes into the race with best form having finished a 6 ½ length 2nd of 11 to Burdett Road in a Grade 2 here at the last meeting. Granted he got his way out in front last time but he’s lightly raced and capable of more progress.
Kourosh is another capable of more improvement. He jumped soundly when winning hurdle/stable debut for Dan Skelton at Wetherby 17 days ago.
David Pipe saddled Adagio to win this in 2020 and he runs hurdle debutant Rebel Angel. A winner of five claiming races on the flat this year when in trained in France. She looks moderate but could improve for jumping hurdles. The market will no doubt guide you on the filly’s chance.
12:40 – John Wyke Memorial Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 1 ½ f
Winning hurdler Everything’sontick made a successful transition to chasing when beating six rivals at Leicester (2m 6 ½ f) 26 days ago. The runner-up won at Sandown last Friday, so the form looks decent enough. The 7-year-old is 4lb higher in a better race but is open to further improvement for the step up to 3m+.
Mofasa jumped soundly when winning over fences at the second attempt at Huntingdon last month and remains capable of further progress.
Weveallbeencaught has shaped with promise on both starts here over fences this season. Needs to improve again for going handicapping but could be capable of doing so,
Wisguy won on chase debut at Exeter 26 days ago. Needs to show that he can back that performance up but he’s open to further progress and could be the pace angle in a race that lacks it.
Some Scope left his chase debut performance well behind when comfortably winning a Catterick handicap chase 22 days ago. Up 6lb but likely remains on a competitive mark. On the negative side Gavin Sheehan who has ridden him on his last four starts stays with Everything’sontick.
1:15 – Quintessentially Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Given the race has £40,000 in guaranteed prize money it’s disappointing to see just seven have been declared.
Mind you the three on my shortlist earlier this week In Excelsis Deo, Calico and Aucunrisque have all stood their ground.
In Excelsis Deo won on stable/chase debut at Hereford last December. He didn’t really kick on from that performance on four subsequent starts last season but there was plenty to like about his 2 ½ length 3rd of 11 to Dancing On My Own here (2m) in October. The runner-up has since won and the fourth finished runner up in the Paddy Power, so the form looks solid. The 5-year-old has only had five starts over fences and he won’t be fazed by soft ground.
Calico gave Jonbon a scare in a Grade 2 at Warwick in February before going onto win a Class 2 handicap at Doncaster the following month. Looked booked for a solid second behind Jonbon when falling at the last in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He returned from a summer break looking as good as ever when a ¾ length 2nd of 11 to Triple Trade here last month. Capable of going one better here, albeit he might prefer drier ground.
Aucunrisque made all to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury earlier in the year and prior to that had finished a length second to Boothill in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton. He hasn’t been close to his best form either over hurdles or fences so far this season but is handily treated when he does back to form.
1:50 – Virgin Bet December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) – 2m 4 ½ f
There’s £74,035 on offer to the winner but just 12 have been declared for this valuable pot and three of them are Irish trained. Where are the UK handicap chasers?
That said all the main contenders at the final confirmation stage have been declared to run including top weight Fakir D’oudairies.
Fakir D’oudairies, makes his seasonal/ handicap debut here. A four-time Grade 1 winning chaser he’s got a good record fresh and has run well here in the past. He’s a fascinating contender who must be respected. In the same colours is So Scottish, seemingly the pick of JP McManus’ retained jockey Mark Walsh. The declaration of the top weight means the 6-year-old gets into the race with a nice light weight of 10-7. I think he’s handicapped to win a race like, but he needs to cut out the mistakes and might prefer better ground.
Thunder Rock secured victory over Mahler Mission at Carlisle on his return to action and that form was boosted by the runner-up in the Coral Gold Cup. Back in handicap company he’s only 4lb higher than when winning at Ascot last November. Compelling claims.
Paul Nicholls has a couple of live contenders Monmiral and Il Rodoto. The former, seemingly the pick of Harry Cobden, finished runner-up to Jonbon on his chase debut and occupied the same spot behind The Real Whacker in the Dipper over C&D in January. Handicap/seasonal reappearance and likely trained for the race. Il Ridoto won over C&D in January and was a solid 12 length 3rd of 14 to stablemate Stage Star in the Paddy Power last month. Looks sure to go well again.
Fugitif probably did too much too early in the first time cheekpieces when a solid 16 length 4th of 14 in the Paddy Power. He’s been dropped 2lb since and should have come on for that run. His Cheltenham form line is 2224 and he goes well on soft ground. Will likely need to deliver at career best performance to win, but there’s potential for him to rise to the occasion.
Torn And Frayed ran well for a long way in the Paddy Power before taking a tired fall two out. That was the 9-year-old’s first run since he won a Grade 3 Handicap Chase over C&D on Trials Day in January 2022. He’s been dropped 3lb since and is on a competitive mark.
Grandeur D’Ame made it 3-7 over fences when winning at Wetherby last month. He jumped superbly well to win and is going the right way over fences. Up 8lb and in a much deeper race here but you couldn’t dismiss him despite being 3lb out of the handicap.
2:25 – Favourite From The Sun Now Daily Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) – 3m 2f
Another handicap chase that sees a poor turnout with just nine declared for a race with £56,950 on offer to the winner. What’s going on with the British trainers of staying handicap chasers.
Despite being low on numbers you can give most of the runners some sort of chance so it’s a competitive enough race.
Protektorat carries top weight 12-0 Last season’s Betfair Chase winner needs to bounce back from a poor run in this year’s race. He would have a definite chance on the best of his form but the percentage call is to pass him over given his last performance.
Threeunderthrufive finished 4th of 18 in the Scottish Grand National on his final start of last season and returned to action with a career best effort when a 3-length 2nd of 11 in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase last month. He’s been nudged up 3lb for that effort but should go well again.
Irish challenger Malina Girl was a ten-length winner of a 3m 3 ½ f handicap chase here last month. Has been hiked up 11lb for that win but Conor Stone-Walsh takes off a handy 5lb and the mare is going the right way.
City Chief was a 4¼ lengths fourth to Malina Girl here last month. That was the 6-yearr-old#s seasonal reappearance and he’s got a 12lb pull in the weights with the winner. He’s entitled to get closer to the mare and must be respected.
Broadway Boy made it 2-3 when making all to win a Listed Novice Chase (3m ½ f) here last month. Apart from one serious mistake four out he jumped soundly through that race which will hold him in good stead here. The 5-year-old shapes like he can improve for this further step up in trip and has a big chance on handicap chase debut. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won this in 2018 & 2019.
Easy At That struggled to keep up with the early pace in the Paddy Power last time. Nevertheless, to his credit, he rallied in the straight and managed to secure 6th place. I think he’s started the season on a good mark, and I have been waiting to see him step up to 3m. He’s going an extra two furlongs beyond that trip here which will really test his stamina but he has a nice light weight and is one to seriously consider.
3:00 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Registered As The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle) (Grade 2) – 3m
Kerryhill was an expensive purchase at £115,000 after winning an Irish Point. Now with Ruth Jefferson he made a winning hurdle debut at Kelso last month. He’s open to further improvement in the sphere and looks worth his place in graded company.
3:35 – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Theatre Glory, a previous C&D winner, wasn’t at her best when a 4 lengths 3rd of 5 in a Grade 2 at Ascot three weeks ago. Even though it was her first start for 7 months the market expected better from the mare. Back in handicap company but it will be no easy task under top weight and a sounder surface would probably be preferred.
Bonttay has a very likeable profile and her form figures in bumpers and over hurdles are 111221211. Returned from a 226-day layoff to win a mares’ handicap at Hereford last month. Up a couple of notches in class but her progress probably hasn’t levelled out yet and she’s got a favourites chance if she gets a decent pace to chase.
Windtothelightning is another improving handicap hurdler who has won four of her last five starts. She returned from a 7-month absence to record a decisive success at Wetherby last month. Up 12lb for that win and in a much deeper race but she remains capable of further improvement and is in the mix.
Nurse Susan was a useful novice hurdler two seasons back who ended the 2021/22 season with a career best effort when a 4 ½ length 4th of 19 to Love Envoi in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Missed all last season and didn’t look totally in love with jumping fences when a well beaten 7th of 9 in a Mares’s Listed Novice Chase at Exeter 26 days ago. Highly regarded by trainer Dan Skelton and better expected back over timber.
Stainsby Girl is a solid handicap hurdler on her day, and she was back to form when a 2 ¾ lengths second of 10 at Haydock three weeks ago. Will face pressure for the lead here but should give her backers a good run for their money and could get into the places.
Doncaster
2:05 – bet365 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 3f
Mister Who, a winner over hurdles at Lingfield last season, returned from an 11-month absence with a good 2 length 2nd of 9 on chase debut at Lingfield last month. The 6-year-old should strip fitter here and although he might want more of a stamina test, he’s open to further improvement in the sphere and is high on the shortlist.
Deeper Blue returned from a year off the track with a good length 2nd of 7 at Plumpton 54 days ago. That was just his second start over the larger obstacles, and he didn’t look at ease on a sharp track last time. Doncaster’s more galloping track will play to his strengths and there should be more to come from the 7-year-old.
Cerendipity got off the mark at the second attempt over fences when winning a heavy ground novices’ handicap chase at Wetherby 17 days ago. Just 3lb higher and looks capable of winning more races over fences.
Cruz Control had to dig deep to prevail at Newcastle 23 days ago. A 5lb rise makes life tougher for the 6-year-old but he’s another very much in the mix on ground that should suit.
Henry’s Friend won a novice hurdle here in March. The 6-year-old has had wind surgery and makes his seasonal/chase debut for a yard among the winners. Looks like the type who should do well over the larger obstacles and looks interesting off what looks a workable mark.
2:40 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
Gin Coco took advantage of a slight ease in class when gaining a well deserved success over hurdled at Ascot last month. He’s up 4lb for his latest win but he’s not handicapped out of this and the sounder the surface the better his chance.
Clear White Light made it 4-8 over hurdles when winning a Class 3 handicap hurdle over C&D two weeks ago. He’s up 6lb in a deeper race but that was the 7-year-old’s first start since April and he looks like he might be capable of an even better performance than he’s shown so far.
Rare Edition looked like an exciting novice hurdler when winning his four starts last season including over C&D. Ended last season with a couple of disappointing efforts in Grade 1 company so has something to prove. However, he’s down into handicap company for the first time and is 2-2 when returning from a 121+ day layoff.
Tommy’s Oscar won this race in 2021,and he’s a smart hurdler and chaser at his best. Raced predominately over the larger obstacles last season and returned to action with a personal best on RPR’s when winning at Kelso on his seasonal return and is back over hurdles after a slightly below par effort in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last time. Ground will suit the 8-year-old who has to be respected.
3:15 – bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m
Eleven runners but this is as competitive a race as you will see all day and I have more than half of the field on my shortlist.
Forward Plan won two of his five starts over fences last season and there was plenty to like about his return from a 7 month layoff when a 25 length 6th of 11 to his stablemate in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton. He ran a lot better than his final position suggests having raced from 7lb out of the handicap. Better ground is a plus and he can win off his present mark.
Sail Away beat Forward Plan by 11 lengths at Ayr (3m) in April and remains 3lb better off at the weights. Underwhelming on seasonal return at Newbury, dropped back to 2m 4f, but that was his first start since wind surgery and the yard’s runners were needing their first run.
Whistleinthedark progressed with each of his four starts over fences last season. Struggled when a well beaten 8th of 14 to Stage Star in Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on his seasonal return last month. Stamina for 3m must be taken on trust but he shapes like he should stay and back in calmer waters must be respected.
Twoshotsoftequila has finished runner-up on both starts this season and posted a career best on RPR’s when a ¾ length 2nd of 7 at Catterick 22 days ago. Trainer has her horses in winning form and Brian Hughes has been booked.
Manothepeople made a promising return to action when a neck 2nd of 11 at Exeter two starts back. Only got as far as the 4th before unseating his rider, in the first time cheekpieces, at Ascot last time. He’s well suited to good ground, stays 3m and given he’s only had six starts remains unexposed over fences.
Castle Robin a former C&D winner is 4-7, 5 places at around 3m and has gone well fresh in the past. He would probably prefer softer ground though and likely there’s one or two better treated rivals in the line-up.
Betting Advice:
Just like yesterday, I’ll be sharing Saturday’s picks with you in the morning, so keep an eye on your inbox.
Cheers
John